someone up there is mad at me.

Brutal stretch of 4 tourneys this weekend. Here are the 4 hands that have knocked me out.

Tourney #1: I'm shortstacked and push with Qs2s to steal blinds. Unfortunately, I get called by AdJd. But then, a miracle: I hit my Q on the flop! I'm 86% to win the hand. Until runner-runner KT comes on the board and gives him the unlikely straight to wipe me out.

Tourney #2: I get AcKs on the button. A bad, loose player raises it up, I reraise him all in, he calls with AhJs. Domination, baby, to the tune of 74% to win. Of course, A Jack comes on the flop and I'm gone.

Tourney #3: Similar situation to above - bad player raises, I put him all in with AcQs, he calls with Qd7d (?!!?). In this one, I'm only 71%-29% to win, but a 7 comes on the turn and bye-bye again.

Tourney #4: Worst one of the night - I raise with QQ and get shoved in by a loose player. I'm the table shortstack and decide I need to take a chance so I call - he's got 99. This is the standard 81-19 to win, but a 9 is the first card on the board, and down I go again.

For those of you counting at home, that's 4 hands with an average winning percentage of about 78%, and I lost all 4 of them. Holy binomial distributions batman! What's the chance of that?

Time for a little break, I think...

hilarious hand

ok, we're heads up at the end of a tourney. Opponent is good and aggressive. He raises me in the small blind. I've got JJ, so a reraise. He raises again, I shove, he calls. We show, my JJ to his A7. Nice! Only one overcard, I'm probably a 70-30 favorite. I'm thinking "dodge an ace, dodge an ace, DodgeAnAce, DodgeAnAce, DodgeAnAce".

The flop comes....

Ace Ace Ace.

I shit you not. He flopped quads! I just had to laugh - that's just silly.

Later in the tourney, I flopped my set and pushed into his straight on the turn. Oops. Guess he can thank the Poker Gods for those cards against me tonight.

the set-less streak is over

Went a month without flopping trips, finally happened today in a tourney. Got maximum results too b/c two players with monster preflop hands tried to get cute.

Full Tilt (Tournament): $20 + $2, 6 players
Wed May 21 14:34:48 EDT 2008
Powered by Poker Academy: [http://www.poker-academy.com] (Format: Plain Text)

greenfi4nd ($1,615)
PokHerAce2 ($1,570)
B92019 ($2,450)
taglius ($4,075)
GuApO61 ($1,585)
0vash0rk ($2,205)

PokHerAce2 is the button.

Precards:
B92019 posts the small blind $50, taglius posts the big blind $100.

Preflop: taglius is dealt 8s 8c (6 active)
2 folds, greenfi4nd raises to $200, PokHerAce2 calls $200, B92019 folds, taglius calls $100.

greenfi4nd is a multi-tabler, currently playing 4-5 tables. His stats are 7/7, meaning he’s playing only premium cards. Here he raises only twice the big blind – my guess is that he's got AA or KK and trying to get action. PokHerAce was also tight and he just called. Now I've got to call $100 to win $550 I can do this with any 2 cards, let alone 88.

Flop: 8h 4d 7h ($650, 3 active)
taglius checks, greenfi4nd bets $300, PokHerAce2 raises to $600, taglius raises to $1,600, greenfi4nd calls $1,115 (all-in), PokHerAce2 calls $770 (all-in).

A glorious turn of events. I finally hit my set, top set at that, and I put both players on overs. Time for a check. I am rewarded with a lead out of half pot, and a reraise. I put them both all in, and they both call. Nice!

Turn: 8h 4d 7h Th ($5,035, 3 players)

River: 8h 4d 7h Th 8d ($5,035, 3 players)

To add insult to injury, my set of 8s becomes quads on the river!

Final Pot: $4,850
taglius, net: $3,235, Won at showdown, has 8s 8c (Four of a Kind, Eights)
greenfi4nd, net: -$1,615, Lost at showdown, has Kd Kc (Two Pair, Kings and Eights)
PokHerAce2, net: -$1,570, Lost at showdown, has Ac Ah (Two Pair, Aces and Eights)
B92019, net: -$50, Folded Preflop

To review, don’t minraise with KK. And don’t call a minraise with AA letting the blinds in behind you. Get your money in. If KK raises 3x and AA reraises 9x, I fold 88 and then swear when the 8 comes on the flop (this type of thing happened to me at least 5 times today, BTW).

I knew I'd pay for that....

I dished out a bad beat in a tourney tonight, my KK vs opponent AA. I had a sneaking suspicion the villain had AA preflop, too - he raised a funky small amount, twice, but I usually push KK to the limit like it's AA (as Harrington advises). We got all the money in and I saw the bad news.
Flop come 3s Ts Jd. No help there. Turn comes 9c. Hey, now - 2 Kings or 4 Queens make me a winner - 6 outs for a 12% winning chance. River comes Qc and I knock out my opponent.

I had a feeling the poker gods wouldn't let me get away with this one for long. We get down to four handed, and it's very early - blinds are still small, so there is plenty of juking and diving.

Get into the small blind with Ah4h. I've been raising the big blind at an above average frequency, and he calls fairly often, so I decide to just complete this time and hope for a big hand (can be a mistake, probably not here, though).

Flop comes As 3c 5s. I lead out with my pair of Aces, he insta-calls. Nothing much here, he's done this before, but I am wary that maybe he has an Ace with a better kicker, or even 2 pair.

River comes a lovely 2c, giving me a straight. I lead out again, denying flush draw odds, but he calls anyway. Ok, I've got him on an Ace now, maybe 2 pair, maybe the same thing I've got.

River comes 2d, pairing the board. That could be trouble, of course, but you can't worry about those things in fast moving tournaments. I'm 80%+ to win against a random hand, 90% to win against Ace-x, I need to bet out and hope he's got an ace here. I bet and he shoves. Ok, then. Well, maybe I'm beat, but like I said, there's no way I can fold a straight here. I call and he shows 55 for the boat. Ouch.

Turns out I was WAY behind on the flop, then WAY ahead on the turn, and crushed on the river. And the poker gods get even. There are only 4 hands that beat me (AA,33,55,22), and he had one of them.

finally time for some poker

I finally had a day off from soccer and side job misery, plus the wife went out, leaving me home with kids on a school night, which gave me time for some poker. I started off by purchasing PokerTracker 3, which I have been using in beta. I like the HUD though it's still a bit buggy, and I don't like that I have to manually enter tourney results even when Poker Academy Prospector does a pretty good job figuring out results on its own. However, it looks like they will be actively developing it and fixing bugs and I'm hopeful it will become a kickbutt software product. Since I'm in the software industry myself, I tend to be a bit over-critical of software, but this one looks like it will end up pretty good.

On to the poker. Played 3 tourneys last night. In the first, I came in third. Memorable had was a stone cold blind steal attempt with 94o - blinds were pretty tight but big blind calls anyway. Crap! Flop comes something like QT5 - missing me in every way. Big blind checks to me. My first instinct is to simply give this one up, but then I find my balls and think to myself "this guy hasn't made any moves that I've seen, he seems tight and straightforward, let me try a bet here". I bet and he folds. Whew!

Second tourney was a disaster - out in 3 hands with AKs. Flop comes a K and a known calling station calls my 3/4 pot bet. Turn completes one draw, I bet out, he calls again, turns out he had that draw JT and now has a straight. I go broke on TPTK against a bad player. Oh well, it happens.

Third tourney I take second place - one guy in the tourney is a -34% according to sharkscope, with over $11,000 lost. His graph is straight down. In about 1/3 of the tourneys he's played in, he places dead last. This is not even funny. In one of the first hands, he calls with A4s, misses the flop with no pair and no draw, and calls a huge bet anyway! They get it all in on the turn - top pair vs Ace high - only one of the 3 aces can win, and of course it comes. He doubles up. One guy at the table (a modest winner, currently multi-tabling) starts berating the guy in chat until I say "stop tapping the glass, please". He replies "lol, you're right"

This player's MOD must be to go all in early and pray for the double up, since he's such a bad player he needs early success to just cover all his mistakes. I keep watching him - he makes a pot size bet on almost every flop he enters. He's fairly loose (35%), but not ridiculously so). He occasionally gets his bet raised and either folds (has nothing) or calls if he caught any piece of the flop at all, or even with 2 overcards! (I saw him call an all-in twice with 2 overcards, once against me)

Unfortunately, nobody seems to be able to get the cards to exploit this guy. One time, I get a walk with 83 in the big blind and flop two pair. I check knowing the pot sized bet is coming, it comes, and I checkraise him. There were 2 spades on the flop - I figured I would be dead if he had even one high spade as he would call and then one of his overcards would hit, but luckily he folds.

We get down to 4 handed and this guy is now the only big stack and pushing people around. My cards have turned to poo and I basically have to let him do this. I am second stack at the table and there's a shorty so I'm basically waiting him out to get into the money. Finally the shorty goes all-in, bad player calls, and so does player 4. Flop comes, and bad player bets pot! player 4 folds and bad player loses on something like a K9 that hadn't hit the flop at all. Ugh. Player 4 (who was the same multitabler guy berating the bad player earlier) says that he folded the best hand and they could have knocked the shorty out without the stupid bet. Bad player does this again a few hands later with me vs. the shorty!

It eventually gets to heads up - me vs. the awful player, and of course he wins when some draw hits against my low pair (I didn't have enough chips to put up much of a fight anyway). I look one last time as his sharkscope graph - he had 111 first place finishes out of 1500 tourneys played (7%), now he's got 112, and he's taken a small bite out of the 11K lost. Ooof.

life getting in the way of poker

Rough week for jobs, soccer, and NBA playoffs, not much time for poker. Managed to squeeze in a 9 man 2 nights ago and took second place. There were 5 players left, only 1 big stack, the other 4 (including me) were even. I didn't want to make many moves - I felt like any of these even stacks could take a shot with a wide range and put me to a tough decision. I stole a few blinds but that's about it. All of our Ms were about 6.

Finally shoved with A6 and got called by KT. We both whiffed the flop, he hit his King on the turn to start me swearing, but a lovely Ace came on the river to double me up. What, I won on a 3 outer? Mark this day down! Anyway, I consider it justice since I got my money in with the best hand - I should have won, right?

Last night I played 50 hands of the .10/.25 capped cash game - I was distracted by the Cavs/Celts so I wasn't really paying close attention, but I did win $5 on a KJ vs. KT hand and then called it a night. I should have some time tonight, finally - no soccer and no Cavs.

bleah

Played in a $20 9-man last night and the .10-.25 capped 6 man. Got my money in with the best hand 3 times and lost all three:

(tourney). AQs vs. AJs - Jack comes on the flop. 70% to win that hand when the money went in

JJ vs AK. Ace on the flop. Ahead about 52-48 on this one, just a race (but still got my money in ahead)

AK on a K37 board. Opponent calls a 2/3 size bet with 56, turn comes 8, he bets, I shove, he calls with 8 outs. One comes. About 84% to win on that one.

Ok, then, 70/50/84% to win, total wins = 0. About $36 lost. Time for a win - I need one soon...

Man I suck

Full Tilt (Tournament): $20 + $2, 8 players
Sun May 04 21:06:04 EDT 2008
Powered by Poker Academy: [http://www.poker-academy.com] (Format: Plain Text)

taglius ($1,720)
thienthanhdiep ($1,330)
NitinProduction ($1,780)
NIKKOBRAHMS ($1,560)
nacotroll ($1,570)
pibrock5 ($1,225)
kraftyvet ($2,875)
al333 ($1,440)

thienthanhdiep is the button.

Precards:
NitinProduction posts the small blind $25, NIKKOBRAHMS posts the big blind $50.

Preflop: taglius is dealt 2c Ad (8 active)
4 folds, taglius raises to $150, thienthanhdiep folds, NitinProduction calls $125, NIKKOBRAHMS folds.

a bit light for a raise here, but the button, thienthanhdiep is 6 tabling, and the other players don't appear to be good. Maybe I can take it down preflop. NitinProduction calls though, time to be careful.

Flop: 2d Ah Jc ($350, 2 active)
NitinProduction bets $200, taglius raises to $400, NitinProduction calls $200.

Bingo! I flop 2 pair. Nit bets, I raise, she calls. I put her on an Ace, probably not AJ, though since she just calls.

Turn: 2d Ah Jc Js ($1,150, 2 active)
NitinProduction bets $250, taglius calls $250.

Well, this sucks ass - the second J just counterfeited my 2 pair big time. Still, Nit bets small and I feel I have to call.


River: 2d Ah Jc Js 2h ($1,650, 2 active)
NitinProduction bets $350, taglius raises to $920 (all-in), NitinProduction calls $570.

and the death card -the 2 gives me the under boat. I've got her on Ace-something, and when she bets 1/4 pot, that doesn't do anything to get rid of my suspicion. Time to go all in. Well, she didn't have an Ace, she had a Jack, and I was dead from the turn.

Final Pot: $3,490
taglius, net: -$1,720, Lost at showdown, has 2c Ad (a Full House, Twos over Aces)
NitinProduction, net: $1,770, Won at showdown, has Jh Kd (a Full House, Jacks over Twos)
NIKKOBRAHMS, net: -$50, Folded Preflop