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Came home nearly dead even from the Thursday night game - left with $80, came home with $81. I was down $25 in 45 minutes - it seemed like I was wearing a T-Shirt that read "please checkraise me" because everyone got in on the fun. I was playing solid, tight poker, hitting pairs and such and getting checkraised off of them.
With only $15 on the table, Tony made a raise on my small blind. I had AJo and decided to shove over him. He looked a little annoyed at me and tossed his hand away, saying "I don't need to race for $15". He also said "this isn't a tourney". I replied, "well, I know, but if I call your $4, I have $11 left in a $10 pot. What do I do then?" I found out later he had AQ.
I realized shortstacking wasn't the way to go on this table, so I bought back in for $40 more. This loosened me up to make a few moves and play some more interesting hands, like limping into multiway pot with JTs and such. I was able to work my way back to even, which left me ecstatic.
Online play continues to be a disaster. I was tired after trick-or-treating with the kids tonight, and my online confidence is at its nadir, so I logged into Poker Academy to wager fake-money-PAX instead of real loot. I soon found out that my online luck followed me from full tilt onto my old site. I was chip leader for awhile on a 10 man table when I got AA in against AK, but the makeup hand came soon after when I limped in with KQ, hit two pair on a JQK board, got someone to put it in with AQ, and watched them hit their straight on the turn with a T. Got my money in good once again, about 75%, leaving opponent drawing to 6 outs, but one of them came.
Later, while 4 handed, I saw that same person hit a ten on the river to save their ass with another Ace high straight against someone with a better hand when they got their money in. That hand would have knocked them out of the tourney, putting me into the (fake) money. Instead, I was the shortstack and got knocked out on the next hand, as I make my ICM shove with J-crap, but (of course) someone has a decent ace and makes the call, knocking me out on the bubble.
October is over - I suffered my first official negative online month, and it was a bad one - down $229 for a -31% ROI. Ouch. Of course, at the rate I play (only about 40 tourneys a month), the sample sizes are so small that I could have turned this number around by having a 2 or 3 of my bubbles turn into first place finishes. It's really that simple. You can't really chalk this "downswing" up to bad play, although I did review my play and find a couple of problems (one of which I mentioned in a prior post, overplaying small pairs). This is mostly simple variance - the poker gods having fun with me, testing my resolve and so forth.
I am amazed at the 2+2 forum guys - they had an "October results" thread today, and people post their numbers. The first guy in the thread stated that he played 1187 SNGs in October. That's nearly 40 tourneys per day. Sweet Zombie Jesus, that's a lot of poker. My goal for next year is to get my own tourneys up to over 100 per month, mostly by multitabling (and maybe by playing more).
To contrast, my live play for October was much better, with my second place finish in the 53 man tourney - I ended up $403 richer there, so my October net is +174. Ok, fine, I'll take my net positive month and move on.
Played in a $1 + 0.25 buy in matrix tourney on Full Tilt and took second place overall. Finish places were 1, 3, 3, 3 - so I moneyed in all 4 tourneys (lots of bad play down in the $1 levels, ooo-fa).
Next, I played in a $5.50 buy in matrix, and took third overall. This one featured one first place finish and 3 bombouts (including some suckouts against me to keep my tilt-foo strong).
Finally, I went for some true multi-tabling - I ran 2 simultaneous $10+1 SNGs.
Not so worried about my play - just my ability to follow the action. I was able to do so, even take a few notes as I went. I even had to answer a phone call while all 4 tables were up in the first matrix tourney.
More practice needed before I'm comfortable multitabling up in my regular bankroll level, but it's a good start. This is one of the things I wanted to work on during my vacation - so mission accomplished.
Another thing I did today was fire up Poker Academy Prospector to look at my October stats. Prospector has all of the same information as PokerTracker, but it's arranged much better. There's a "leak report" that shows your play by position, with certain holdings, etc. Actually, this leak report takes the exact format of a post from Pokey on the 2+2 forums - it's almost certain that one of the Prospector authors used this post as the basis of the leak report. (the original post is here).
Anyway, I found out that I lost a boatload of money this month on medium pairs. I was able to go into the hands and figure out if it was bad play or bad luck. Here were my 9 top money losers with medium pairs:
I called a shove with 77. There were 3 players left, and I had 15 BB. No need to race for all your chips with well over 10 BB. This is a mistake.
Heads up, shoved TT, ran into AA. Played ok. (got money in behind, but TT well within shoving range)
TT - hit a set on an all heart board, vastly overplayed by shoving to keep away flush. Villain had Ah, called, and hit his flush. I could have played this slower and got away, especially if a 4th flush card hits, Mistake.
JJ - called an all-in from a bad player, who turned out to have Qc3c (ooo-fa), and of course hit his flush. Ok
JJ - ran into QQ. Ok
JJ - got it in vs 66, villain hit his set. Ok.TT - playing a strange player. Misread opponent who had AK, hit an ace on the turn, and "slowplayed" one pair. Have to put this in the mistake category b/c of the misread.
88 - shove 10 BB, called by TT. Ok.
TT - 16 Big Blind overshove - called by KJ, lost a race. This one could go either way. If I felt like I had fold equity on the player, I think this move is ok. However, villain started off with 540, raised to $210, then left himself with 3-1 odds to call my all-in bet, so he was definitely getting the right price to call. If I have no fold equity here, then I think I need to have the best hand, which I suppose I do most of the time with TT. I could have simply folded (seems weak with TT), or called (even worse, calling over 20% of your stack to setmine), so raising seems correct by the process of elimination.
Final tally - 3 mistakes, 5 ok plays that didn't work out, and one oddball that could go either way. 2 of the three mistakes fall under the same theme: overplaying medium pairs when greater than 10 BB. Even if you're the low stack at the table, all is not yet lost with 15-18 BB, and you don't necessarily have to overshove - a fold might be the best way out with action in front of you (especially from a tight player).
2 tourneys tonight, no multitabling - managed to place 3rd in one and bomb out of the the other.
In the second, had weak tight players to my right, and calling stations to my left. Couldn't steal blinds, couldn't shove over limpers without being behind. Trapped like a rat.
Knockout hand - weak tight player limps in from the button (last orbit he did this with AJ), small blind called. I had A8 and decided to shove, even though I might be behind, I was also desperate. The small blind, a good player, called with AT. Great limp by him, I guess.
Another negative day - probably no way I'm finishing October in the black now - I'm down almost 200. That's 6 negative sessions in a row, and 11 out of 15 negative this month. Ouch.
Might need to spend some time tomorrow looking at October to see if I've developed any leaks.
lots of work multitabling today. Purchased Full Tilt Shortcuts today and learned how to use it on both the play money and matrix tables. 4 tables is tough for me right now - will continue to play the very low levels until the game slows down for me.
The problem with multitabling is that I can't take my notes regarding bet sizes and hands. I still have PokerTracker3, but I learn a great deal studying bet sizes and when people vary them, it usually means something. I may have to write a piece of software that pulls this info out of the pokertracker DB...
The poker itself has not been great to me. 2-outers (KK vs. 55), sets getting beat by turned flushes (they go all in on semibluff against my set, then hit). I turned 4th place overall in both a $2 and a $5 matrix tourney. Won a little money in each one, but not enough to cover the buyin.
Ended the night single tabling a $30 - 9-man - cards were dreadful. Took two shots at the blinds, got reraised both times. Ok, that's out. With 5 left, I got AKs and and aggressive player 2 to my right raised it up. I was ready to shove over him when the player in between went all in before I could. He was a tight player so I thought I might be dead to call here, but things had been so bad I ended up convincing myself to call anyway. Original raiser folded and we were off - he had JJ. Best I could have hoped for, especially with the dead money in the pot from the original raise.
My mood improved considerably when I hit my Ace on the turn, but then a jack on the river two-outed me and sent me to poker tiltville. That was my cue to call it a night.
Tomorrow morning we bury my last grandparent - 93 years old. She had a great run....
This week is my week's vacation from work. I have to use the days by the end of the year or lose them. Since we're not going anywhere, my plan is to work on my game.
This morning, I downloaded StoxEV and watched the tutorial videos. It's an amazing program (I think - sooo complex), and I'm sure it will take much time to get used to. Today I modeled the QQ hand I had in my Thursday night game on the 89J rainbow flop. I went back to my blog entry and entered all of my opponent's hand ranges and actions. Based on this model - StoxEV reports that I had 59% equity in the hand after I shoved the flop. Not too bad. If I allow my opponent to call with AJ (something I don't think he does) - my equity goes up even higher.
Then, I played online. First one was a 6 man that got me nowhere except another bubble. I got aggressive at the right time, shoved with 9To, and got called by A4. He hit 2 pair. From an ICM perspective, my shove was great, his call was horrible, but that didn't help much today.
Then I decided to try something else I've been meaning to tackle - multitabling. Full Tilt just introduced a new type of game - matrix tournaments. In these, you play 4 simultaneous sit-n-goes with the same 8 opponents. You get money for finishing in the top 3 at each table, and also points for knockouts and survivals. At the end of the 4 tourneys, the top 3 point-getters split some more of the prize pool.
I tried a $5 tourney just so I wasn't draining my bankroll doing something very new. I was able to follow the action ok - not too overwhelmed with 4 tables going. However, I didn't end up doing very well. I only monied in one tournament - taking second place, which only won me $2.70. I placed 5th, 6th, and 7th in the others. I need to review to see how I played in each - was this poor play a function of my multitabling, or was it just ye-olde variance hitting me in the nuts. Here are some of the hands I remember:
I hit a set of tens and got a call from an unsuited ace who hit a flush on an all-heart board (he had Ah)
I had KK twice and had to lay them down both times with an ace on the flop and betting action before me.
I raised AK, got put all-in by a big stack, called, he had A9 and hit runner-runner-flush.
I also played an aggressive donk like a fiddle and got rewarded by losing a big pot. I had A6 and completed the big blind. He had already limp-reraised me so I was playing conservative. The flop came 6 2 4. He bet the pot, I just called. Turn came an 8, he bet pot again, I just called. River came a 7 - he bet half pot, I called. He had 5 T and hit his one card gutshot straight after betting pot twice. Ouch. Should I reraise preflop again? This guy had already shown he was not capable of folding - do I want to go to war with A6? Do I shove flop with TPTK? This guy is putting his money in with the worst hand the whole way and then sucks out - aren't I playing "correctly" by calling down and letting him hang himself?
Well, that was my afternoon session- more poker to come tonight.
one other note: PokerTracker 3 currently doesn't handle the matrix tourneys correctly. I actually won 2.70 by placing 2nd in one of the tourneys, but this didn't get recorded. PT also smashed all 4 of the tourneys together b/c they have the same full tilt tourney ID. They have promised a patch
Evening session - 2 normal nine man tourneys - one bubble (my first ICM shove of the night with JQ is called by A7 - which is a HORRIBLE play by her and only marginally bad by me (+EV overall but just over 10 Big blinds, no need to shove quite yet). Second tourney I finally break my out-of-the-money streak and take 2nd. That was 7 online tournies in a row out of the money (excluding the matrix tourney).
Lots of poker to play this week - as usual, I need a turnaround late to make it a positive month. I will give myself a pass this month, though, since a) I'll probably be screwing around with the matrix tourneys this week, and b) I won 5 hundy in the live tourney last week. Getting back to positive is certainly a goal but I won't despair if I don't get there.
A much bigger turnout to the neighborhood tourney this month - 53 players total. I showed up early (as I do for everything) and chose one of the 2 felt tables (the other 4 are round card tables). Anthony lets the first 5 players or so choose their tables and then makes the others pick a numbered chip to seed the rest.
My table ended up pretty tough. Jason, the guy who read my every move when we were 3 handed last month, was there, as was Anthony the director himself. Anthony is a straightforward, solid player. Two players on the other side I knew were total rocks - if there were in a hand with any aggression, I probably would not be there with them. One of them, a guy named Bud, routinely complains about his cards every month- this month I found out why - there are only 2 hands he likes in the whole deck!
In the first orbit of the night, I got 77 in late position and got to see a cheap, multiway flop. I liked the flop very much, too - A 7 3, three suites. Not much that anyone could have in the way of draws- hopefully someone had an Ace that would give me action. Someone lead out small and it folded around to me. I decided this flop was safe enough to slowplay so I just called. We were the only 2 in the pot.
The turn was an 8 or 9 and player one lead out again. I hoped he had just hit two pair and raised it up. He thought for a second and folded, saying "I don't like my kicker". Why play Ace rag if you're not going to like your kicker, which you never will? This pot gave me 400 quick chips to put me at 1900.
Jason was playing several hands strangely - calling preflop raises in position with marginal cards. Unfortunately, this worked in his favor a coupld times. He called a preflop raise with KTo and hit top two pair, then won a giant pot against AK who put 500 chips in with TPTK. He ended up with the big stack at the table.
Fortunately for me, I won two decent pots from him. I raised up AQ and he called from a blind. The flop came all undercards and I whiffed. He checked, so I continuation bet half the pot, but he floated me and called this as well. I was ready to give up when an Ace came on the turn. Jason replied "well, you just hit your Ace" and checked. I couldn't decide in the heat of the moment if perhaps he was goading me into another bet with a set or something, so I chickened out and checked behind. The river came and he checked again. Now I was pretty sure he hand nothing so I bet a bit under half pot (hoping for value and protecting against losing too much on a checkraise), but he folded. He said to me "pretty ballsy slowplaying a pair of aces" so I replied "wasn't slowplaying, just trying to keep the pot small with a small hand". I probably should have kept my mouth shut - I suppose I could have had JJ/QQ/KK and played it the same way - now he knows I will c-bet with nothing.
The second hand I won was raising from under the gun with KQs. This hand is usually a bit weak from this position for my style - but the table was often folding to preflop raisers and I thought perhaps I might even take the blinds from a raise this early. Jason called again from the blind. Again I hit nothing on the flop. He checked and I decided to check behind, since he knew I had c-bet the AQ. The turn, strangely enough, came Ace again. He smiled at me and checked. I smiled right back and checked behind. The turn missed yet again and we showed down, he called "I have a king" as I flipped over KQ - he then mucked and said "crap, outkicked". This pot was smaller but still welcome.
This was about all the memorable hands I had early. My cards went cold for an hour or so and I dutifully folded. I took some pride in folding stuff like A9 and KJo in early position, but my stack size was shrinking as the blinds were rising.
Soon after the first break, I had 1600 chips with 75-150 blinds. A stack shorter than mine went all in for something like 900 chips. I looked down at AKo and decided "ok, this is it" and overshoved. Then another player, with about the same size stack as me, also called all-in. Uh-oh. We were about halfway through the players, and there was a good chance I was going out early.
We flipped our cards over - the original raiser had 89s, and the overcaller had AKo, right along with me. It looked like there was a better chance of Mr 8-9 hitting his hand with our 2 big slicks interfering with each other, but then Jason, who was dealing, flipped over his mucked cards - he had folded 89! This put the odds back to "even", and me and the other AK ended up splitting the pot, getting our original chips back and 400 each from the shortie. This gave me a bit of breathing room.
One orbit later, I got my lucky streak of cards. It started with QQ in middle position. I raised and it folded all around. For reasons unknown, I showed the Queens (gotta cut that out in general, but it worked to my advantage here). Then, the very next hand, I got AA, and raised it up again - same amount as before. Once again, everyone folded and I stole the blinds. This time, someone asked "so, what did you have this time?" and I said "I'm not going show that one, sorry". Again, not sure why I took this course of action, but it worked out great for me. Very next hand, I look down at AA again. Uncanny. Once again, I raise it up to 3x the big, but this time I get a caller and we see a flop. The flop is pure, unadulerated garbage - 9 5 2 rainbow. Just a total whiff for just about everything. My caller is on my immediate left. I look over and he's only got like 800 chips left, so I decide to immediately put on the pressure. "I'll put you all in" I exclaim. He gets that agonized look on my face that tells me he might call. If he had AK/AQ he would chuck these cards in a heartbeat with a smile on his face. Then he starts an external self-monologue, and this lifts my spirits even more. He says "I think I just got coolered". Then he says "well, why would I call a raise with this hand and not play it to the end on this board?" I figure he's got TT/JJ now. He agonizes a few more seconds and then calls - and turns over 88. A bit lower than I figured, but the same result. I show my Aces and he practically falls off his chair, saying "Queens and Aces in the span of two hands? Unbelievable". I don't bother disappointing him further telling him about my Aces in the hand in between! I avoid the deadly 2-outer hanging over us and get myself into a competitive chip position by knocking out Mr. 88. I think not showing my second hand was the key to his call - he decided there was at least some chance I was bluffing, and didn't put me on a 9, so a call seemed reasonable to him.
To end the lucky run of cards - the very next hand I got another pocket pair - this time 44. This time, though, I was under the gun, and figured maybe someone (or multiple people) would be gunning for me, so I just threw the hand away. A limp would have been screamingly obvious after 3 straight raises, and I didn't need to throw chips away in a fast tourney raising with 44 with 7 left to act.
We soon condensed down to the final table - 10 left, top 6 get paid. There were several small stacks and I decided to tighten up a bit to get some reads on the new players and maybe fold my way into the money. The final table turned out to be fairly passive, in my estimation. Usually, the last 10 players are all the internet guys with lots of raising and a fair amount of 3 betting. This table featured several multiway limped pots, as well as several calls of raises, even from the blinds. This helped me decide to tighten up even more.
The bubble didn't last too long - someone got knocked out and I was in the money for a second straight month. Bud, the ultra tight player who always complains about his cards, was in the money. By this time, I was witness to his playing style - he is the weakest-tightest player I've ever seen. I saw him limp from the button with no limpers in front. The flop came Queen high and he bet. A king came on the turn and he checked. The river came a blank and he checked again, then decided to call a small river bet. He showed AQ. He had open limped from the button with AQ!
Later in the night, he limped again in late position, and I jokingly thought to myself "this is probably Kings". The flop came with an ace and he checked. The turn and river didn't look like any draws were present - and he ended up showing down - you guessed it - KINGS!.
Later in the tourney, he did end up raising. I had A9 in a blind and knew it was not even close to good. I threw it away. He also 3 bet all-in and called an all-in, both times with AK, which seemed odd to me - I guess he likes AK, even more than KK!
Bud ended up affecting the order of the last 6 players by not putting a player all in for his last 100 chip. This player two hands later put his chip in 2 hands later, got 3 callers, and quadrupled up when nobody hit anything and his ace high held up. Bud could have joined the party for a single chip but folded 72, which would have ended up being the winning hand. Then this player doubled up 2 more times and got enough chips to damage the other stacks, and he ended up lasting longer than Bud himself.
The final table wasn't very eventful for me. I stole a few blinds to gain some chips but didn't get very involved. I did knock someone out to gain a big chipstack one more time but to be honest I barely remember doing so. (I don't remember the hand at all). People started falling out and I was moving up in the money by folding. We fell to 4 players, then 3. Then the other 2 guys at the table got tangled up in a hand and I was heads up, again, for the second month in a row. Nice!
Heads up lasted only 4 hands. Blinds were 2000-4000 - I had about 20,0000 in chips. The first hand, he raised me up and I folded crap. The second, I completed the blind with more crap and he raised me. I folded. The third hand, he raised again, and I folded again. I decided I needed to take a stand with about 11,000 in chips, and decided I was going to shove regardless of my cards. They came - 75o. Ugh. I shoved. My opponent said "that's funny, I was just ready to offer you a chop". The second place prize was $560 and he was going to offer me $700. I would have taken it in a second. "However, I gotta call you here, he said". I prayed I would win this one more time and then offer to take his chop. He showed A9s and knocked me out.
Looking back on my play - I feel I played excellently for the second straight month. I believe I went the entire game without calling one raise. I'm pretty sure I won almost every hand I showed down (perhaps I lost a few small pots on the river, but certainly no big ones). I played most of the hands correctly (that KQs raised UTG was a bit weak, but I reasons for stepping outside my comfort zone there). No big mistakes, no suckouts (either for or against me), and none of that "getting a great, second best hand that's impossible to get away from" stuff that's been a feature of my Thursday cash game. My reads were solid (for my novice level of hand and player reading) and they kept me out of some trouble. I hit a set early and won a nice pot, and of course had my lucky run of big pocket pairs that basically doubled me up when my situation was on the bleak side.
And $560 clams ($510 net) to boot!
Up to three tourney losses in a row as a big favorite now - had a truly, truly horrible player at my table - saw him call raises with 7To, limped into the pot from early position with 5To. No, really.
Waited patiently for the hand to get him - then I got it, JJ. Not the AA I wanted but good enough. I raised, he raised over me, I shoved, he called.... with Qc3c. (they were soooooted!). Gotta dodge a Queen and clubs...
2 clubs on the flop, one on the turn, and down goes Frazier. Sick. This time, I was 69% to win b/c he had an over, but still plenty edge to get my money in as a favorite.
2nd tourney, I raise up with 99 and TT twice, get shoved over both times, have to let them go. Then, bad player steals my BB three times in a row. The fourth time, I shove over him with 8Ts - of course he's got AQ this time, calls, and hits both the A and Q. At least I broke the string of getting my money in good and losing - this time I got my money in bad and lost.
3rd tourney, got short and tilty, shoved with 33, got 2 callers, one with AQ, one with AT. Caught a nice break dodging cards left and right and had it hold up to triple up. But it was short lived - guy to my left, a veteran with 28 tourneys played, caught hand after hand and beat me several hands in a row to knock me to short stack. Finally shoved with K9 - he called with AQ (yet another hand), and I was gone.
Not a fun couple days here. Tomorrow is the live monthly tourney - hope I used up all my bad luck tonight.
6 man - we get to 3. Too early to ICM-it, so I'm just playing tight for awhile. Guy to my left is huge stack, me and the other guy are about 1200-1300. Big stack doesn't raise often enough, so I'm hanging on.
Take a hit when he limps, I get free BB with Q9 - I value bet turn and river, he calls, shows QT. Ugh. Interesting conversation develops - he asks why I would bet that Q with a straight on the board. (4 6 7 8). I tell him that I don't put him on a 5 with that limp. He says "I might have had 2 of them". I reply "Then the correct play is to raise". He says - "I hate getting money in with small pair here, either of you could go all in at any time". Ok, interesting note.
Just then I get JJ and shove it in. He calls and says "guess I lied". He shows 66. Beautiful!.... until he hits his set and bubbles me. Aaaargh! Great read, great hand, dominated, LOSE.
Second tourney, get AcKc, raise it up. 2 bad players call me. Flop comes Jh Kd 7s. First bad player minbets - she's done this a dozen times already - it means she has nothing. Second bad player raises. I shove it in. I'm sure I'm ahead - almost 100% sure. Second bad player calls - he's got K8, and he went all in on top pair, no kicker. I'm 82% to win, but with the way my luck is going tonight, I'm pretty sure an 8 is coming in the next two cards. It does.
So there you have it - two hands over 80% to win, all my money in the middle, two losses. That's big fun right there.
two bombouts and one third place finish tonight.
first bombout was fine - Made a great ICM call of an all in - I put the pusher on a wide range, and was absolutely right to call him with AJ, and he turned over the exact hand I was hoping for - A4. Then he hit his 4 on the flop and down I went. Nothing to do there.
Second one, though, was horrible - I lost a couple hands in a row and was slightly steamed (not too much, but enough). Raised it up from the small with K9 - big blind - the only good player at the table - raised me all in. This was an overbet - had he minraised me or normally raised me, I might have just folded, but the overbet seemed suspicious. Nope - he had AK. Dominated and out.
Last tourney, played well until the end - I did get into a race with AK vs a pair and hit a KKA flop, so that was nice. Then I raised 66, the same player shoved over me - this time HE had AK, but I hit a set on the flop to surely put him in the looney bin. Big fun.
The player who ended up taking me out was playing jam or fold - if he put any money in, it was all in. Quite an odd move, if you ask me, especially when the blinds are 20-40 and you're putting 1300 in. But it was working. His PokerTracker stats said he was in 11% of the pots, so I whipped out Pokerstove and figured out what 11% was. Came up with this range:
77+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,ATo+,KQo
So, when I would get a decent hand, I would put it quickly in vs. this range to see how it fared to see if I might consider calling or not. For example, once I got A9. Worth a call? Not unless you want to be 63-37 it isn't. Then we got to three handed and he shoved. I had 77. I thought RACE! and hit call. He had AK and won the race. As it turned out, 77 is only 43% vs. the range above, so my call wasn't very good. When you take ICM into effect, and the fact that we were all about equal in chips, this was a horrible call - something like -3%. Egads, I suck.
So there you go - two bad decisions, one suckout, makes for a -$30 night.
My month is just under water, -3% ROI, but I've only played 18 tourneys in 20 days. I have a week's vacation coming up next week, and there is a lot of poker in my future. Not sure if that's good or bad...
ugh, bad poker all around, and I fell for it.
guy limps UTG, I raise with AQ. Donkey calls the raise. Board ends up with two sixes and two fours. I bet with my Ace high, figuring I either win or we chop. Guy raises me up, I figure he's got an ace too, now. Nope, he had 56s, which he played under the gun, against a raiser. Delightful.
Next tourney, donkey limps (this particular donkey had played 16 of the first 20 hands for an 80% VPIP) - I raise him up with TT. He calls. Flop comes A J 7. We both check. Turn comes a 4 - he checks, I bet, he calls. River comes another 4. I bet, he raises. What's he got now, a 4? No way. Nope, he had AK. He slowplayed his top pair. Beautiful.
I will now place my head into a boiling pot of water on the stove.
I'm not too ashamed to say it, I played great last night. My thinking is slowly upgrading to level 2 - "what does my opponent think I have", and I was able to use that to my advantage on more than one occasion last night.
A couple examples - I raised late with JT, the other Matt defends his blind. Matt loves to play small cards and hit big hands, or simply take flops away when small cards come and tight players show weakness. The flop came small, unconnected cards and he fired out a bet. Sure, he could have hit here, but I raised the pot preflop and nothing says that I don't have an overpair, so I reraise and get a fold.
I did this again with AKo - I decided to follow a couple limpers in late position and play conservatively. The flop came J T x, Tony fired out a bet. I know he'll do this with top pair, middle pair, an underpair, just about anything, so I raise him up as a test. He says "you flopped two pair, huh?" and gives it up right away.
Seems my tight image is now working to my advantage.
I also took a couple shots with complete crap cards, one time raising from the button with 23o, and playing it all the way to the river. I decided to show that one to make sure I got caught making a move - I think this will help let these guys know I'm not always playing AA/KK/AK type hands.
Then, right at the stroke of midnight - it happened - the same thing that has happened 2 other times I've played in this live game - I got tangled up in a second best hand and got stacked. This time, everyone folded to me in the small blind. I had QQ. I don't like to slowplay big hands from the small blind - you check for deception, the flop comes 2 7 J, and your opponent flops 2 pair with his 2 7 and nails you. I make the standard raise. The big blind calls. He is a tight, solid player - I've never seen him defend with junk, so he's got some kind of hand here.
The flop comes 8 9 J, three different suits. Somewhat coordinated board, to be sure, but I've got an overpair and a gutshot. I make it $8. He raises to $20.
Uh-oh, now what have I gotten myself into? Let's run through what he could have:
Overpair, AA/KK. Possible, but I think he reraises me preflop. He is good enough to call for deception, though.
Overs, like AK. Also might have reraised preflop. Is he capable raising my flop bet with air? Not sure. Earlier, I saw him bet into the small card guy with nothing on both flop and turn, then caught a lucky Ace on the river, but leading out is different than reraising someone who has showed strength twice.
AJ. A solid possibility. Good enough to defend a blind with preflop, maybe not quite enough to reraise. Top pair/Top kicker on the flop, dangerous board, reraise to find out where you're at.
A Straight - namely QT. I discount this possibility - I think this hand is too weak for this player to defend a blind with. He can't know that I don't have QT, though.
A set. Yup - fits his preflop call and the flop reraise. Dangerous board would make him want to take the pot down now.
Two pair. 89 or 9J are both possible, but not the most likely holding.
My last consideration - his raise size. Only 2.5 times my raise, pretty small. By my counts, the pot is $36 after he raises (my $4 raise, his $4 call, my $8 lead, his $20 raise), and I have to call $12. He's giving me 3-1 odds! Does he want me to call a big hand, or is he afraid of the scary board as well and is trying to lose the minimum? If you've got a set here, don't you raise more to shut out draws, or are you not concerned with the draws and just worried about cracking AA/KK/QQ?
After I call his raise, I will have 37.50 left in my stack, just short of doubling his $20. He has me well covered. I think he'll fold AK/AQ, of course, and he might call with AJ, so I'll make money if I'm ahead and shove. If I'm behind, I figure I've got 2 outs to hit trip Queens, and 4 more tens to hit a gutshot, so I'm 25% to hit a winning hand no matter what he has. 25% to improve to a win, maybe 20% that I'm already ahead, and maybe 10% more to get a fold based on his holdings, and I'm somewhere around 50% to win the hand, with 3-1 odds.
Ok, let's go. I shove it in.
He counts out the call, compares it to his stack (which would still be sizable if he lost this hand), and somewhat confidently says "ok, I call". He turns over 88. Yup. He says "oh crap, I wish that was AA or KK", seeing the gutshot possibilities. But for now, he's got me unless I hit one of my six outs. Sadly, 4 of these outs vanish when the 9 pairs on the turn, giving him an 8s over 9s boat. Now only one of two queens will let me out-boat him.
I catch a glimpse of way too much white background on the river card as it flips over for it to be a broadway card. Two of spades. Done.
I look up at the clock - it's 5 after midnight. The game usually breaks up by 12:30, so I decide to call it a night. I'm Tony's ride so I hang around and watch the end of the Sox/Rays, then we leave, with me down one buy-in. Tony is well ahead again - I tell him how amazed I am that he hasn't been felled by a good, second best hand in this game yet. We've probably played equally well with the exception of one hand each night that cracks me, yet I'm not sure I've played any of them badly. I'm pretty sure I can get away from this hand if I've got $200 on the table, but with $65? Nah, I think I played it fine. Once again, though, nothing to show for it.
Full Tilt Poker, $30 + $3 NL Hold'em Sit n' Go, 25/50 Blinds, 4 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
UTG: 3,935
BTN: 1,320
Hero (SB): 1,310
BB: 2,435
Pre-Flop: (75) 3
Q
dealt to Hero (SB)
2 folds, Hero raises to 125, BB calls 75
oops, get my hand caught in the cookie jar here.
Flop: (250) K
6
6 (2 Players)
Hero checks, BB bets 50, Hero raises to 200, BB folds
My note on this player reads "small bet=nothing". If my read is wrong, my tourney is probably over with less than 1000 chips. Fortunately, he folds to my checkraise
Results: 350 Pot
Hero mucked 3 Q and WON 350 (+175 NET)
Very proud of this hand, but not the rest of the night. Bubbled this tourney (3rd), could not pull the trigger when 4 handed on probably valid ICM moves, I just felt people would call me light with hands like K7 and I'd be dead. Finally pulled the trigger with A9, got called by 88 and lost the race. ICM says the move was fine, so nothing I could do there.
Then in the second tourney, cards were bad early, someone flopped a A44 boat on me with A4, but I lost the minimum. Holding on with an average stack when I get AdQd, raise it up, and
the small stack shoves over me. Had the odds to call any race so I called - turned out he had KK. A marginally bad call, needed 35% to win if I knew his hand, true winning percentage was 32%. If I increase his range to top 6% of hands (99+, AJs+, AJo+), I easily have the odds I need to call, so I guess this is an ok call.
Then, very next hand, I get KK myself. I raise it up 4x hoping it looks like a tilt-raise. Loose, bad player calls - this guy loves Aces so I'm on the lookout for any ace. Flop comes 6s4dJd. I lead out big, he calls. Flush draw? AJ? Turn comes another 6, I get it all in. He calls - he's got AdTd for the flush draw and one over. I'm 77% to win until the river comes As and I'm out in 6th. All (seemingly) good plays, no luck though.
Note: I don't consider myself a good player. I'm a beginner, trying my best, reading everything I can, playing whenever I'm able. But there are some real ooo-fa players out there. Check this hand out.
Full Tilt Poker, $20 + $2 NL Hold'em Sit n' Go, 30/60 Blinds, 7 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
BTN: 2,605
Hero (SB): 1,380
BB: 1,505
UTG: 3,190
UTG+1: 2,190
MP: 1,320
CO: 1,310
Pre-Flop: (90) A K dealt to Hero (SB)
UTG calls 60, 3 folds, BTN calls 60, Hero raises to 240, BB folds, UTG calls 180, BTN folds
I raise it up with AK. UTG calls - she has already called a preflop raise with KJo and called an all-in bet with A8s, so I'm pretty sure she's a calling station. Sharkscope has her at -31% ROI after 421 tourneys.
Flop: (600) J 5 8 (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG bets 360, Hero raises to 1,140 and is All-In, UTG calls 780
My checkraise all in is an admittedly really poor play. This player is a calling station and is going to call my bet with just about anything. I was in a foul mood tonight - I had already bubbled out of one tourney, and I wasn't hitting much. So when she calls, I fully expect to see JT or KJ or something like that. I never expected to be ahead!
Turn: (2,880) 7 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
River: (2,880) 6 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Results: 2,880 Pot
Hero showed A K (a flush, Ace high) and WON 2,880 (+1,500 NET)
UTG showed Q K (King Queen high) and LOST (-1,380 NET)
In review, she called an all-in checkraise with 2 overs. Got that?
I was praying for Aces against this opponent - just one time, c'mon! Strangely enough, the poker gods granted my request:
Full Tilt Poker, $20 + $2 NL Hold'em Sit n' Go, 100/200 Blinds, 4 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
BTN: 2,535
Hero (SB): 2,680
BB: 3,305
UTG: 4,980
Pre-Flop: (300) A A dealt to Hero (SB)
2 folds, Hero raises to 500, BB calls 300
I never limp with Aces, especially when a calling station is going to call my raise anyway (I probably could have raised it up even higher, but I didn't want an overbet to scare her away)
Flop: (1,000) 3 2 Q (2 Players)
Dry flop, pray she'll go broke on a pair of Queens. Time for another checkraise. I think this second one is even more insidious b/c she probably remembers I checkraised all-in with basically nothing last time, this time I have something.
Hero checks, BB bets 1,000, Hero raises to 2,180 and is All-In, BB calls 1,180
Woohoo, she's got a queen and just went broke... (I hope)
Turn: (5,360) J (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
River: (5,360) A (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Results: 5,360 Pot
Hero showed A A (three of a kind, Aces) and WON 5,360 (+2,680 NET)
BB showed 3 7 (a pair of Threes) and LOST (-2,680 NET)
Nope, my read was wrong. She called a raise with 73 suited, and went broke on middle pair - a 3. Egads.
I played in the home game Friday night - not much of note there. I dropped $15, over half of that on the last hand where I played AT and called all the way down on a KQ8 board, half hoping for my gutshot or Ace, half not believing that my opponent had anything, and half just not giving a crap b/c it was the last hand of the night (wait, that's three halves).
I was also a bit irritated at some of the drunken behavior that was going in since the event was in my basement - some of my "guests" are not capable of using their inside voice at 1:00am after 18 beers (no, that is not a misprint).
No further online poker this weekend - I did some real life things instead and spent some much-overdue time with the family. Tonight is the Browns/Giants game on Monday Night Football, and although I give my Brownies close to a zero percent chance of winning the game, I'm pretty much genetically obligated to watch the bloodbath so I can participate in the post-game wailing and gnashing of teeth.
In other news, my next door neighbor who definitely did not have cancer might have it again - he's back in the hospital today for more tests, and we're all worried for him. So strange that the biggest worry in my life right now is random office politics and improving my middling poker skills, yet my neighbor and friend the next house over is sitting around wondering how many more of his kids' birthdays he's going to get to see.
My next door neighbor Fred, a friend and fellow player, has had some health trouble lately. This week we got some good news - the swelling in his neck is definitely NOT cancerous,, and it looks like he will recover fully. Fred has been on all of our minds lately, and it was a great relief to hear that his recent ailments were not as serious as they could have been.
Freddie entered my mind again last night when I looked down at my hand from the big blind and saw 34o - a miserable hand to play, yet one of Fred's favorite hands. Fred loves nothing better than to play his 34 against someone's AK and crush them on a 3-3-K flop, or simply beat them on a 3-J-8 flop that misses the high cards. Fortunately for me, the normally aggressive table limped around to me and I got to see a free flop with my junk.
And it was a nice flop, too - A-3-4 for bottom two pair. Thinking I would get some action from anyone with an ace, I decided to lead out instead of checking. My read proved correct as the most aggressive player at the table raised me. At first, my heart sank - thinking he had A3/A4 and I was about to go down in flames again on Thursday night with a hand I couldn't get away from. But I took and extra second and thought about this opponent and his tendencies - he loved to raise people, both preflop and postflop, and his raises didn't always mean powerhouse hands. I considered all of the hands he might do this with, and it occurred to me there was a chance that he didn't have an Ace at all. It was possible he was playing a medium or small pair - and on this board, he was just raising to represent the ace, thinking I couldn't have had one myself.
I steeled my courage and re-bumped it. It wasn't an all-in but it did commit me, and it was obvious my opponent knew it. As I've often mentioned - this is a low-stack cash game, so you can't get too worried about trickeration and odds. You need to hit your hand and get it in. He thought for quite a bit of time and then folded.
Biggest hand of the night for me was QQ from the small blind – 2 limpers, I raise it up to 7. Big Blind calls my raise, limpers fold. Flop comes Q (yes!), A, x. Again, I hope villains’s got an ace so I lead out about half pot. Apparently, he does have an Ace, so he raises it up to $20. Pot is over $40 now, I’ve got to call $16 and I’ve got $29 behind that, so I stick it all in. He thinks for awhile and says “I’ve seen you do this with AK, I’m thinking about calling you”. Then, he says “this is probably a horrible play, but I call, show me AQ”. I know he’s got AK before he flips it over.
One running theme that I need to work on is getting some value when I hit my hand. The 3-4 was not an example of this because I feel like I need to protect bottom two pair, but I had a couple hands where I bet for value at the end but didn't get called. One was a KT that paired the ten, then turned into trips on the river. I bet the flop and turn and had someone call me both times, but when I bet the river they folded. They told me they had middle pair. I probably could have bet smaller and got paid a bit. In another hand, I started with a pair, hit a flush draw on the turn, then hit the flush on the river. I glanced up at my opponent when the third club hit and witnessed an obvious frustrated sigh upon seeing the flush card come. I knew I had him beat, but I couldn't get him to pay off my bet at the end. Perhaps I need to bet small enough to entice a call with a pair in some of these cases.
One other gutsy move - I played A8 in a limped pot in late position and the flop came 8 high. Someone fired a bet out at the pot - but this guy has taken several stabs at pots already, sometimes taking them down, sometimes getting called and shutting it down on the turn. I raised him up with my top-but-very-vulnerable pair, and got a fold. He flipped over AK.
At the end, I was up a whopping $2.50, but I consider this a wildly successful session compared to the last two bloodlettings I took at this table. I leaked several chips playing some crap connectors and hands I probably should have folded, especially with Mr. 3-bet 2 seats to my left, and I also defended my open blind a couple times against the LAG to my right and didn't have it go anywhere. I also lost $12 on a race - my TT vs. his AQ - but he had shoved his last chips in and I had 1.9-1 to call - an easy call in a race situation.
fired up a $20 6 man tonight - got QQ under the gun on the very first hand. Ugh. Nobody believes you on the first hand. I raise it up - 4x to show I mean business.
The big blind reraises me. I check his stats - he's a modest loser, but not a complete donk. The best move would be to fold right there, right? I think about it for a second and decide there's some small chance he's got JJ/TT/99 and thinks I'm the donkey right? ok, then, let's shovey-shovey. His Insta-call scares me, but he flips over AKo and we're off the races. Sadly, he wins the race.
I have met the donkey, sir - you are no donkey. Tonight I'm the donkey.
So, how bad off was my QQ doing to his range of hands? Fortunately, the program Holdem Ranger can help answer this question. Holdem Ranger is like PokerStove except that it lets you assign percentage chances to various holdings he might have. Sweet!
So, I decide his most likely holding is AA or KK, I assign a 50% chance to those hands. I also give AK a 25% chance, and then a 25% chance for 99-JJ. My equity is just under 50%, the classic race:
Results from http:\\www.HoldEmRanger.com
472,595,904 evaluations, 276 hole card combos
Wins Ties Equity48.12% 0.22% 48.34% ( QQ )
51.45% 0.22% 51.66% ( 99-JJ(25) AA-KK(50),AK(25) )
Of course, racing for all your chips on the first hand of a SNG, especially when you think you're better than most of the table, is a bad move. Baaaaaad.
Watch what happens, though, if I decide this is a poor enough player to include AQ, AJ, AT in the race for all his chips on the first hand:
Results from http:\\www.HoldEmRanger.com
883,548,864 evaluations, 516 hole card combos
Wins Ties Equity
57.01% 0.25% 57.25% ( QQ )
42.50% 0.25% 42.75% ( 99-JJ(25) AA-KK(50),AK-AT(25) )
I've gained 9% equity just by making my opponent a bit more donkish. Still not a good play by me - not by a long shot, but it's interesting how much I gain with just the small chance that he's got a card under my Q along with an Ace.
And look what happens if I decide he's enough of a donk to shove any pair along with AT-AK:
Results from http:\\www.HoldEmRanger.com
1,315,049,472 evaluations, 768 hole card combos
Wins Ties Equity
64.14% 0.23% 64.38% ( QQ )
35.39% 0.23% 35.62% ( 22-JJ(25) AA-KK(50),AK-AT(25) )
Now that I look at my opponent again, he's got an amazing Sharkscope graph. Check it out:
He looks like a break-even player for 1000 tourneys, then something changed to make him shoot up quickly. Now he's on the downward spiral again. In truth, had I seen this graph, it would have made me even more inclined to call, which of course is "a bad thing" as I've already mentioned.I ended the night with a $20 9-man and took third. Net profit on the night - minus $4. Could have been worse, I suppose. I should have gone out around 5th as I raised it up with A2s and got called by AA, but doubled up on a flush. Soon after I raised it up with AK, got overshoved by the same guy who had AA before - he was by far the best player at the table - I decided on the heat of battle I needed to call this one, he had AQ. I figured there was some small chance that this was a 'move' since he was a very good player. I was somewhat correct - an all-in shove with AQ looks more like a 'move' than someone thinking he has the best hand.
I studied my ICM actions at the end of this tourney and it looks like I made all the right moves there. I think my next poker-purchase will be SNG-Wiz, although the free SNGEGT-Lite has helped me a great deal with endgame stuff. I have read that SNG-Wiz will show you hand-by-hand if you played correctly according to ICM principals, including cases where you could shove over a big-stack raiser (but not an all-in move). This is a common occurance that I need to get better at.
only 1 online tourney this weekend, no luck there. Still the beginning of the month, so the pattern continues.
We played our normal Friday night live game - did very nicely there to make up somewhat for Thursday. A part-time player checked in, and I took him for quite a bit of money. In one hand, I had the nut straight on a flushless board in Omaha with a JK, and was in early position. I kept leading out and he kept raising. Better yet, a tight player in the hand kept calling. I knew that this player was not raising on the come - he had a hand he liked. I also knew that there was as good a chance that he had the J8 straight or trips than he had the same had that I did.
I kept calling the raise as opposed to reraising - I knew there was a good chance he couldn't see my hand out there and was building a huge pot with a second best hand. I was right. Both he and the tight player had J8, and I dragged a $50 pot.
Then, in our little $10 tourney, the poor player gets moved to my right. He limped in - I reraised him with AJ. He called. The flop came with A 4 5 - he leads into me. I'm 100% positive he's got an Ace, and I'm 75% positive my kicker is higher. The only thing I don't know is if he's got two pair or will hit it to beat me. I call. Turn comes a 7 - he leads again, I call again. River comes a 9 - he leads yet again, I call yet again and ask "did you hit your 2 pair?". He turns over A8. Nope. I take about half his stack. Tony takes the other half a couple hands later.
Then, a play I'm very proud of - we get to 3 handed - me, Tony, Kevin. Kevin's the big stack and Tony and I are fighting for 2nd. Tony limps into my BB, I've got J8 and call. Flop comes A 9 T. Tony leads out. This is a key hand - the loser will be under 5 BB and not have much of a chance to place in the top 2 (only 2 get paid). I sit for a second and try and figure out what Tony has. I decide that if Tony had an Ace, he would have almost always raise preflop in a BvB battle. I've got an open-ender and I don't think he's got top pair, so I shove all in. Tony thinks and I know I've got him when he says "I'm just trying to figure out if you didn't raise with an ace in your hand". He's got a Ten. He eventually folds and gets knocked out a couple hands later, putting me in the money. Kevin crushes me soon after with trip queens, but the net $10 along with the cash game winnings make it a decent night overall.
I wanted to ask anyone out there's opinion on a hand from last night.
I was getting frustrated b/c of bad cards for over an hour, so that may have played a part in what looks like a weak decision, but I think in the end it was OK.
This is a .5/$1 live nolimit game. I currently only have $24 on the table (my first buyin is dwindling down after being up $12 or so). I had AQ in relatively late position. I make the standard table raise, which is $4. The player to my left, still in position, calls my raise. This player loves to play low cards and steal flops when no paint shows up from tight players like myself. Then, the small blind shoves his last $17 into the pot.
The small blind is a decent player - I don't think this is a move. I put him on AJ-AK, maybe 88-AA for pairs. My best guess is a pair.
While I'm thinking about calling, the guy in between says "I hope someone has a big pair, I've got the perfect hand for bringing down a big pair". In his language, based on the way he plays, I read this to be suited connectors.
So here goes the math in my head. I take a stab and guess the shover guy has a pair under my AQ. Sure he could have QQ/KK/AA, but I'm going to discount that for now. If this is true, then I'm racing with this guy, probably 45% to win the hand. But my read on the second guy is that he's got some kind of suited connector, say 89 or 9T. If those reads are correct, then 2 things are also true:
1. If I hit my Ace or Queen, not only am I beating one guy, but I'm beating both of them.
2. Their hands might interfere with each other some. Part of Mr. 89's value is hitting a straight, and a medium pair might be holding 2 of his outs.
I decide to not only call, but shove the rest of my money in too. I know this isn't going to shut the middle guy out, it's only $7 more, but I figure this is just like a race against a pair except I'll be winning more than the one guy's money if I can hit my overcards...
Before I give the results, if anyone wants to weigh in on my logic, feel free.
It's been another rough night for me at the .5-$1 live game. I started off well - won a couple pots with AK, but then lost a buy in on a 3-way all in (I did have a small overlay, but it didn't work out for me), and I've lost a few more chips now into my second buyin. I've got about $25 left, and the night is coming to a close, when I get JJ under the gun. I raise it up and get one caller.
The flop comes A-A-J. Looks good on paper, but I know that I won't be able to shut out the guy if he's got an Ace, and if he pairs his other card, he'll overboat me. We both check the flop.
The turn comes a 7. I lead out and he calls. I'm sure he's got an ace now.
The river comes a 2. I like this card - I don't think he called my preflop raise with A2. I bet out. He says "I put you all in". Well, I figure he's either got AK and I win, or AJ/A7 and I lose. I only have $11 bucks left and the pot is $30, so of course I'm not folding my underboat.
My initial read was right about him having an Ace. What I didn't count on was his having two. Dude flopped quad aces on me, and I had the misfortune of flopping the boat.
Like the title says, there are hands that you're supposed to lose all your money on. This is certainly one of those hands. It has been my luck in this Thursday game, though, to get at least one of those a night - a hand you can't fold but you're beat from the getgo. Last time it was a free play from the big blind with K8 and a flop of 8-8-4. Any way you're folding that for 40 big blinds? No way. You shove it in and hope the guy doesn't have 4-4 or A-8. He had A-8. You flop the underboat with 25 BB on the table, you get it in there and hope it's good.
So far in this game, it hasn't ever been good.
This is getting a bit too coincidental for comfort. The new month starts and my luck turns around 180 degrees. Played 2 tourneys tonight - in the first I got no playable hands, got outmanuvered in a BvB specials, got short and shoved with A6 - called by both 99 and TT, done with barely a peep out of me in 32 hands.
Second tourney, almost same thing - this time I win an early 200 with AK, but that's it. Nothing else comes until I'm at 900 with 50-100 blinds, I shove with A6 (again), this time I'm called by 44, and I lose the race.
62 more or less unplayable hands and missed flops.
Note that I'm not whining (yet) - it's only 2 tourneys, of course - but it seems pretty odd that I bomb out for two weeks and then kick ass for 2 more, month after month, 3 months in a row now. Bizarro.
One final note about September, after my horrid start, I ended up +$174, 17% ROI. My (laughably short) "career" sits at 23% ROI in 245 SNGs. I've posted a positive month (lowest ROI 8, highest 59) in all 7 months. It's a fine start.
At the end of the month, I'm taking a week of use-it-or-lose-it vacation. My plan that week is to practice multitabling. I will probably drop down to small buy-in SNGs and run 2 at a time, then 3, then 4. My personal goal is to play 4 SNGs profitably.
