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Sat at a table tonight and waited for my blind before playing, as I always do. The player three seats to my right shoved all in preflop twice in that half orbit.
He did it two more times in my first orbit at the table. I had no cards either time, but already started formulating my calling range if faced with one of his all-ins. I decided on TT+, AK, and AQ.
In hand 29 at the table I got my first hand in that range. Pocket jacks, early position. I raised pot - 3.5 big blinds. A ridiculous 20 big blind shortstacker called my bet cold. The shover had 85 blinds now, and was waiting in the big blind. I felt it was more likely that he would shove with the extra caller. I had already decided I was calling if he shoved. He did. I called, The shortstacker called too.
Pocket sevens for the shover. Ace-Queen, both spades, for the shortstacker. Queen on the flop gives the shortstacker a tripleup, and I get the rest when my jacks hold up. Up half a buy-in.
Shover leaves the table right away - his off to tweak his plan.
Plus four big blinds in the cash game last night - not a terrible result. PC took a bunch of my money, then gave it all back to others on hands I have been waiting for him to be in, but with ME.
Trips appears to be his "go" hand. Once he has trips, he's not folding, kicker or hidden full-houses be damned. Add to this his love of ace-anything, and you see where this is heading. I've seen it now for some time. Tonight he limped with ace-garbage (eight I think), called a raise behind him, called a bet on an ace board, then got all in with a second ace on the turn. His villain's cards? Ace-king. Shocking, no? Soooooo unlucky. Uh, not really.
He also loves to build big pots with top pair. Top pair of ANYTHING. If he's in a pot with jack-eight, and the board comes eight high - he turns any $4 bet into $8. Couldn't anyone have pocket nines or tens? Or how about ace-eight? Or bottom set? Sure they could, and they will, someday, but he seems to get away with this silliness over and over.
Against me, he won a kicker battle (I had KT and was in the pot only b/c he plays K-anything, especially suited, this time he had KJ), he found himself behind in a kicker battle but the turn paired and the river came high enough for us to chop, he called my flop bet wit a gutshot and hit it, and finally called all in (not raised all in, called all in) with a flush draw (queen-four), against my two pair 75 from the blinds, and hit 4 turn/queen river to out-two-pair me.
That last one stung a bit. It wasn't a huge pot - something like 20 BB, making it all the worse that he's playing a hand like queen-four when so short. He got away with it that time. And all those other times, too.
So I gave him a bunch of cash, but siphoned it away from some others, and got some free entertainment - which is the ultimate goal of this silly endeavor.
Combine the sick suckouts of normal poker with the inability to do anything about it after you're eliminated. Joy.
Feral Cow Poker
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em $0.05/$0.10 - 9 players
BB: $10.81
UTG: $7.50
UTG+1: $18.35
MP: $1.01
MP2: $6.38 12/6/2.0 after 34 hands.
HJ: $10.11 (Hero)
CO: $8.28
Button: $10.35
SB: $35.65
Preflop: ($0.15) Hero is HJ with 
(9 players)
3 folds, MP2 raises to $0.35, Hero calls $0.35, 4 folds
Flop: ($0.85) 
(2 players)
MP2 bets $0.40, Hero calls $0.40
Float the half pot bet, villain has CBet 1 time out of 1 opportunity
Turn: ($1.65) 
(2 players)
MP2 bets $0.80, Hero calls $0.80
The eight gives me equity, and the bet is small. I probably fold to a bigger bet.
River: ($3.25) 
(2 players)
Well, I hit my set, but any jack beats me. Do I play for a small pot or a big one? (Villain has 4.83 back).
What would you do?
MP2 checks, Hero bets $5, MP2 calls $4.83, and is all in
I went for the big pot. I didn't know for sure (don't have the ranges memorized yet), but I felt like a 6% opening range didn't have many jacks in it. It turns out that JJ and AJs are in there, but not AJo or any KJ. Of course, even if I knew this for sure, I'm still riding the edge (I guess you always are) - villain could be taking a flyer on KJs or JTs or whatever. But we use our HUDs to get probable hand ranges, and then we act on them.
MP2 mucked 
Hero showed , and won ($12.05) with three of a kind, Tens
Hero won $12.05
(Rake: $0.86)
It worked out for me - villain couldn't let go of top pair. Post-hand analysis says I'm a 3:1 favorite vs. villain's tight range - confirming my on-the-fly guess.
I'm sure that the inevitable ups and downs of the game of poker end the pursuit for many players. They are promised that study and hard work will equal success, in the long run. But the long run can be so much longer than they thought.
My desire to play cards was at an ebb this weekend, after my Friday night tourney. My table on Friday night was full of recreational players having themselves a nice Friday night playing cards. There were 2 players at the table whom I considered a threat. The others had mistakes in their game that were obvious after 30 minutes at the table - they called too much, they raised too high with their monsters (afraid of the suckout), they folded their way to tournament oblivion. My own game is far from perfect, but I had hundreds, maybe thousands of hours of practice and play over these weekenders.
To what end? None. Good decisions foiled by bad luck. Aces cracked by a tournament-committing Jack-Four suited. Ace-Jack chopped with Ace-Nine on an all-in.
"That's poker" is what they'll tell me. And they're not wrong. Those who have dedicated themselves to this game have brought a special form of torture upon themselves. If I were to stand in the batter's box against a major league pitcher - say Cliff Lee, my chance of hitting a home run is very close to 0%. He has put in the work to become the best at his craft, and can whip the very best players in the world, making them look silly. I personally would have no chance to succeed against him, by any measure of success. I'm simply not capable. Cliff Lee has chosen a pursuit where his hard work guarantees success against 99.99% of the population, and focuses instead on beating the rest of the 0.01%.
But put me at a poker table with Phil Ivey for one night - I've got a shot. Flop a hidden set of deuces or simply make a hideous error and get lucky on the river - bye bye Phil. Phil has to just shrug it off when some .05/.10 cash gamer takes him down. And the whims of luck might take him down 70 times out of his next 100.
Some professional players (like Chris Ferguson) give themselves a personal challenge of starting with $100 and trying to build it up to a big number by working their way through the microstakes. They do this because they acknowledge that this is indeed a challenge - their impressive skills have to overcome the forces of bad luck. Can you imagine Peyton Manning deciding to challenge himself by moving down to pee-wee football to see if he could beat the game?
I played in a matrix tourney last night. I had aces cracked by nine-six suited, all-in preflop vs. a maniac. Then, I cracked opponents' pockets aces twice myself - once with jacks that hit a jack on the river. The other time in a heads up battle where my opponent limped with the rockets, I checked my king-four, and the flop came king-king-four. I checked the immortal nuts, and my opponent shoved, springing the trap that ended his tournament.
King-four beats aces. LOL. Much like jack-four two nights before. I took no pleasure in cracking the aces, and certainly none in having my own cracked.
The whole thing seemed a bit silly.
Good news- no mistakes tonight. But no real hands, either, until my pocket aces got cracked at the end. You want a guy calling off a third of his stack when you have aces and then shoving the 356 rainbow flop, you're happy with your chances. You're a bit surprised to see jack-four suited, but you still got your money in as a 2-1 favorite and just have to dodge a seven or a deuce. Tonight I failed to dodge.
That was the second statistical improbability of the night - the first was more spectacular from an odds standpoint, but didn't do much to my overall tourney standing. A shortstack shoved on my blind, I had Ace-Jack, and was even shorter than he was. This player is the king of the weak-tights, and I wasn't sure about my hand. I finally decided he was short enough to push worse and made a call - a good call, as he showed ace-nine. I figured the hand was all but over with an ace-jack-eight flop, but the turn and river came both eights as well, and we chopped a full house. I had to run the numbers on that one - I was a 23:1 favorite on the flop, and ended up chopping the hand. Lovely.
If you fail to win after being a 23:1 favorite, and then you get your aces cracked by J4s backed by less than 6 big blinds, it's probably time to go home for the night.
But I tried the cash game afterward - no dice. I didn't have so much as a pair all night. The table was donk-city - people calling raises with A4o and 49s and 40 big blinds in their stack, people 3betting pocket twos, people chasing 2 outs. And there I sat, folding, folding, folding, or whiffing, whiffing, whiffing. I dropped $20 and decided to put the last $10 in my pocket and go home. Enough punishment.
for reasons I don't even understand, I fired up a Full Tilt matrix tournament tonight. I was quickly reminded why I hate tourneys - making easily correct pushes on a three handed table with KQ and having the big blind wake up with AQ - ridiculous.
I played ok. 3rd place in two of the four - bubbled in overall points. A slight money loser. What was amazing was how slow the action felt on four simltaneous tables - NO problem keeping up. None.
I was going to work on the table, but either I'm a complete weakling (likely), or the plywood part of the railing is a much harder wood than the birch section, because the staples were not going far enough into the wood. I decided to leave it instead of force it - I'm in no hurry.
Tomorrow night is the monthly live tourney, with a $5 bounty added in for fun.
I am building a poker table, with help from neighbor Tony.
I am following the "Junell" directions, found here. I am not building cupholders into my table.
Wood was cut Sunday night. The picture below shows the two railing pieces after being attached together (you can also see the center piece in the background on the other side of the door).
The next picture shows the padded rail, from the back. We completed the outer ring stapling last night (inner ring comes tonight, the Thursday cash game is canceled this week).
I will document the building of the table in future posts, stay tuned!
A pack of feral cows chewed their cuds for .0043 seconds to convert this hand
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em $0.05/$0.10 - 8 players
MP: $11.61
HJ: $9.69
CO: $15.45 (Hero)
Button: $12.59
SB: $4.53
BB: $9.69 14/0 after 29 hands
UTG: $3.80
UTG+1: $14.26
Preflop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with 
(8 players)
4 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, 2 folds, BB calls $0.20
Flop: ($0.65) 
(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.40, BB calls $0.40
CBet on drawy board. maybe could have been bigger.
Turn: ($1.45) (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks
Yucky card, hits every draw.
River: ($1.45) 
(2 players)
BB checks, Hero ????
River gives me a straight. Board is flushy, but villain has checked the flush twice now. There's also one higher straight out there (AJ, also hard to put villain on given the action). Do you bet or check behind? If you bet, how much?
What would you do?
Hero bets 0.50, BB folds.
Was hoping a pair would look me up for 4:1 - squeezing extra value out of the river is a big part of your winrate. Villain probably had pocket fives or eights or something that was obviously dogmeat by the river. Oh well, I tried.
Feral Cow Poker
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em $0.05/$0.10 - 9 players
SB: $3.76
BB: $10.00
UTG: $11.75
UTG+1: $10.34 7/3, 346 hands.
MP: $10.49
MP2: $10.15
HJ: $16.74
CO: $18.25 (Hero)
Button: $7.88
Preflop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with 
(9 players)
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $0.10, 3 folds, Hero ???
I continue to work on using all the information at my disposal before making a decision. Here, a 7/3 limps in early position - his early position stats are also 7/3.
What would you do?
Hero Folds.
I'm sure you're all going to call me a nit for folding KQs, but I didn't see how I was going to make money in this situation. I am a 2:1 dog vs. a 7% limping range, so if I raise, I am raising as a bluff (trying to get better hands to fold). This player simply doesn't HAVE worse hands than KQs in this situation. I suppose limping and hoping for a monster flop or monster draw is always an option, but I reasoned that many flops that give me monster draws might also smack this player's range to the point where he doesn't want to fold, either (monster draws lose their semibluffing value if opponents aren't going to fold). Plus if I call behind, I probably set off the chain of callers, and the top pair value of KQ goes down in a multiway pot where I can't put players on any type of valid range.
Like I said, I couldn't see how I was going to make money on this hand by raising, or by calling, so I folded.
First, I'll get the accounting out of the way - down 120 big blinds in the cash game last night. I don't think I had a hand bigger than bottom pair more than three times in the 120 or so hands we played. Definitely brought a butter knife to a gun fight. And the one time I found myself with had a decent hand on the river, I was pushed off of it by PC, the poker mastermind.
Limped pot, 4 or 5 way. I'm in the big blind with 35o, a typical hand for the night. I check my option. Possibilities come on the 249 flop. I check and call a bet from PC. He's going to bet, and if I bet first he will probably raise, whether he has 9T, or pocket sixes. So betting first isn't going to work. CB also calls - his hand doesn't worry me. Just once I need to hit a card....
..And I do. A fine-looking six gives me a straight. This time I wake up and take the betting lead, and both CB and PC the poker mastermind call.
The river is a card I don't want to see. A four pairs the board, and also brings a third club for runner-runner flush possibilities. I still have a decent hand, though, and want to get some value for it. I bet $7, CB calls, and then PC the poker mastermind makes it $14 for the minraise.
There are plenty of reasons to fold right now. Here they are:
idiot end straight (37 beats me)
Limped pot.
Paired board.
3 Flush board.
Here's a good reason to call the bet:
Pot odds.
I have studied PC and his betting patterns with the fervor of a World War 2 British codebreaker. I know his game. This is definitely a value bet, albeit a small one. I feel like "pot odds" is the primary excuse that bad players use to justify bad calls. "I only have to be right like one in five times!" they say. (I should know, I've said it plenty of times).
It's not enough for me this time. I fold and feel good about the fold, for about 8 seconds. CB calls the minraise, so I get to see a showdown.
PC the poker mastermind announces "trip fours".
CB shows a pocket pair of aces that he called with 5 times in the hand, and never raised.
A brilliant play by PC. He turned his trip fours into a bluff, knowing that straights have to fold on the paired, flushy board, and small flushes might even have to fold on the paired board. Fantastic! A move Tom Dwan would be proud of - taking a showdown-worthy hand and turning it into a bluff.
That's not what PC was thinking, of course. His actual thought process probably went something like this
"Hey I have trip fours, and it's not even my birthday! Weeeeeeeeeeeeee!"
No thought to the other 3 cards on the board, no thought to other people's betting actions or holdings, just "trip fours = good hand = bet". This was an error I used to make - I would stop thinking about my opponents once my hand got into the two pair/trips/straight area, and I used to make big, expensive blunders thinking that way.
PC doesn't seem to pay for this thinking. Instead, he is rewarded by bluffing people off of better hands than he has, while thinking he's betting for value the whole time!
The worst part about it is that his "bluff" will end up paying even more dividends in the future, because now I'm going to have to call river raises with idiot-end straights on paired/flushy boards against him, and of course he'll have flushes and full houses when that time comes.
Seeing this showdown brought on about 2 hours of mind-crushing tilt for the rest of the evening. Some players start spewing chips like a busted cash machine when they're on tilt - I feel like I still play my sound game, for the most part. I did loosen up a bit in some limped pots, which leaked some chips but didn't really spew them. (J9 and 67d in earlier position than I would like to play are about as far as my looseness goes).
I continued to play my AQ and pocket nines correctly, but they whiffed every time and my stack just went down and down. There was no winning on this night - every other seat at the table was a calling station who needed to see another card, so bluffing wasn't going to cut it. (I tried to no avail). The profit at this table had to come from hitting a hand, and I wasn't. My last hand of the evening was shoving my last 16 big blinds over two limpers with 88 and getting a call from ace-nine soooted. We were off to the races and I came in second once all the cards were out.
more losing tonight - having AK vs. players who play 50-60% of their hands should occasionally result in a better hand at showdown, tonight I was up against pocket aces and a flopped set the two times I was against them, losing 60 and 70 blinds in the process. Vs. donks like this you're supposed to hit top pair and bet/bet/bet, happy to get all in vs. their three-quarter stacks - so don't tell me I'm making mistakes. I played both hands correctly vs their ranges and lost.
Meanwhile I see the same players calling pot sized river bets with fourth pair, or getting 100 big blinds in on the flop with queen-ten "top pair" on a nine-ten-four flop.
There's money to be made in the micros, I'm better than these morons (maybe not great but better than these guys). You couldn't tell by looking at my results, though.
I'm not even that motivated to work on my game at the moment (which is scary, I know). I just checked my database since I moved to non-Rush, full ring. Small sample size of 4134 hands. Guess what hand is losing the most money? AKs. Third from the bottom is AQs. Also featured towards the bottom are AKo and AQo. It's variance - bullshit, long running variance.
The same idiot who flopped a set against me tonight would have paid off three streets of value with ace-seven, ace-three, or any other frickkin ace. He would have missed the flop entirely three quarters of the time with his range. He would probably pay a bet or two with second pair, third pair, gutshots, runner-runner draws, and Lord knows what else. Against me and my nitty 10/8 stats - he flops a set.
The wife informed me that she was taking the girls to hair appointments at the salon after school today (I wonder what that ended up costing, afraid to look), and that I would be on my own for the evening. I decided it was high time I finally check out the Nautica Charity poker room in Cleveland.
Some history - I had previously stayed away from this room, the only legal public room in the city, because their form a rake was a $15/hour seat fee. This was simply too expensive, especially for a tighter player like I am. I couldn't beat that type of rake at a $1/$2 table. Sure, I could play for fun and not worry about the rake, but I could also do this in my basement on Thursday evenings for much cheaper.
But then earlier this year, a lovely thing happened - a poker room that is successful in Columbus opened up a branch here in Cleveland (actually a suburb), and gave the charity poker room a run for their money. They offered $1/$2 with a normal rake for a couple months, until the city shut them down (I actually showed up to try this room for the first time about 3 days after they shut down, and blogged about it here. They never reopened).
The few months that this Gemini Club was open, the regulars flocked to this room because of the lower rake, and the Nautica was forced to change to a normal rake system as well. They have thankfully kept the rake that way even though they are once again the only game in town.
I am aware that live casino poker can be a pretty wild affair, and I was ready to mix it up as necessary. I was quickly reminded when I saw a hand that went raise (6x to $12), call, call, call, all-in for $60-something more, call (then folds around). The caller flipped over queen-three suited. The all in guy never showed, but the board came with an ace and a jack and he threw his hand into the muck, with queen-high taking it down. I also saw three-six suited crack pocket aces. There were gamblers aplenty at the table, and you should be able to win some money if you can dodge the hidden monster hands.
I sat in with my 70 big blinds and folded my way around the first few orbits. I pegged the calling stations at the table right away, as well as the two aggro guys who didn't like limped pots, especially on their button. I already knew I was limp-shoving on one of them if I could get dealt aces at the right time.
My first played hand, after two orbits of folding, was king-queen suited (spades). I raised two limpers to $15 (including one of the aggro guys), and then someone mucked and revealed the nine of spades, a card I would have liked to still have been in the deck. I whiffed the flop and the aggro fired. I had a calling station behind me and just gave up. The aggro guy won with three-seven, hitting his three.
I found king-queen again an orbit later and open-raised to $12. This time everyone folded except one calling station and one aggro. I hit the queen with a queen-jack-seven rainbow board and bet $20. Calling station called. The turn brought another seven - easily a card this guy could hold, but mathematically not likely. I bet $25 and he called again. The river bricked and I bet $25 more. He thought a bit and folded - I'm guessing a jack-ten or jack-nine type of hand.
That was the last hand worth playing for 2 hours. A couple of borderline hands were considered but folded. No suited connectors or small pairs to take a shot on this night.
After a mere three hours, I felt tired and hungry and not 100% in the mood to play. I called it an early night, up $60 from my king-queen. Nautica will be a fine place to play if the Thursday night game falls apart, or on the odd Friday when nothing else is going on.
Primo seat to the direct left of an aggro-tard tonight, not that I could do anything about though. The cards simply wouldn't let me. I saw him open shove 100 big blinds with Q3 (he won that hand vs. AK) - I saw him call a three bet from a tight player then shove a flop of 885 - with ten-five (he was against aces on that one and did not win).
But I didn't make any mistakes - didn't spite call, stayed within my own game (adjusted for his range), and played well. No big pots tonight, won or lost. Lost a couple bucks for my efforts.
Rotten Saturday night session to ruin my evening - minus three buy-ins. Couldn't beat the 86/6 (he three bet the one time I had a hand with him - KQ. I folded preflop, correctly).
Got aggressive with AK on an all low board with the nut flush draw vs. an aggressive player - he had KK and my fold equity was nil. So was my third heart. It was an ok play, though I had 46% equity, so I didn't need much in the fold equity department. (If he had QQ instead of KK, I would have been a favorite in he hand).
I did make a bad call with pocket aces on the river for 30 blinds - I should have folded - but 2.4:1 odds and having no idea what the guy had got the better of me. We'll call it a call for information. I should have left it a secret - it just tilted me to know he called the flop with 2 overs, called the turn with a flush draw, and then runner-runner straighted me.
We'll call that my bad play of the night. The rest of it was just missing a zillion flops (a 12% won money at showdown tells the story). Losing the buy-in with AKs overs+nut flush draw is high variance, but not bad poker.
I don't usually bring my online game into my live, weekly Thursday night game. There's a couple reasons for this - the desire to not be a total aggro-dick as the host of the fairly friendly game - the old Mr. weakie-tighty that comes out. Sometimes I threaten to bust it out, and sometimes the situation warrants I bust it out.
Last night was one of those times. Mr. M.O. came to the game - a player whom I respect a great deal. His live game of choice is $15/$30 fixed limit, a game so alien to me it might as well be Badugi or Razz, two games of which I've never seen a hand dealt.
He doesn't come often, but he doesn't mess around when he comes. He sat on my right this night, and the aggression started up from hand #1. Raise, raise, raise. If I had to guess as to his stats at the live table, I'd put him at about a 22/20. Not completely batshit-crazy, but a guy who has brought his online game to his live game.
I was plotting my strategy - I liked having him on my right so I could see what he was up to, but I knew he would be taking shots at my blinds. As I was plotting during the second orbit, I picked up a black ace and a red one. M.O. folded this time around, and my open raise was called by Wiley, to my immediate left this time.
We saw an all low 4-7-8 board with 2 clubs. I made my normal c-bet, for value, and Wiley raised it to $13 more. Ahhh, crap.
Time to think it through a bit. Not much to think about here (maybe a sign that I'm processing information more quickly). Three sets beat me, and 5-6. Flush draw semibluffs - a move that Wiley is absolutely capable of making. One more, very important stat to add to the equation though -Wiley had pushed me off of a set two weeks before, then got to laugh at my expense when I told him what I had. He know I tend to shrivel up a bit in my live game.
So there it was - really just a 50/50 type deal. He could have flopped a set or the straight, or he could just be seeing what I'm made of like he did two weeks ago. I could save the buy-in and not overplay the aces, or I could overplay the hell out of them and not let the bully push me around tonight (even if the bully has a hidden machine gun in his coat).
I announced I was all-n. This wasn't a spot to call and hope he fires again. This wasn't a spot to maximize EV - this was simply a test of my poker cahones. If I was right and he was pushing me around, he would fold and I would win a nice pot early. If I was wrong, I would pull the second buy-in out of my pocket and sulk a bit, and try to make it back from the passives on the other side of the table.
I was right this time. His cards frisbeed into the muck before I could push my chips in there. I had taken the punch and stood my ground, this time.
This was the type of hand I needed to kick me into my online game, which I needed to combat M.O. to my right. When he was in pots - I chose my spots for some multiway attempts. When he was out of pots, I went into blind stealing mode and "punish the limper" mode. I won my biggest pot of the night punishing a limper.
I had ace-six offsuit. An awful hand, but one ahead of the passive limper. I got lucky on the six-six-four board and bet it. He called, chasing either the two spades or just not believing me. This player is capable of not believing me all the way to the river, and I intended to get paid.
The turn brought another spade. The flush was out there, but I had the proverbial (actually, the literal) ace in the hole - the ace of spades to back me up. Trips with a nut flush redraw? Yes, please. I bet again. He called again.
A jack of spades on the river brought me my flush, but my opponent lead out $12 into the pot. An ok bet for the pot size, but a BIG bet for this player. Usually unaggressive, unaware of pot odds and putting people on hands - I actually had to slow down and consider that this player had a full house. I wasn't considering folding the ace high flush, but I had to choose between calling and reraising to get value from smaller flushes. It was a tough decision for the not-yet-math guy - I was vaguely aware that hand combinatorics would help me figure it out, but no way am I to the point where I can do them accurately at the table.
The one thing I did know is that me having a 6 took away chances for him to have one, and there are many more ways for him to have 1 spade in his hand than there were to have the few combinations of pocket pairs or 6x that boated up on this board. I couldn't run the actual numbers, but it seemed obvious that there was more chances of a flush than a full house. I put in a raise - to $25. This was enough to get value from smaller flushes, and enough to fold if he went all in (I felt it unlikely this player would push all in anyway, even with the stone cold nuts - he's that passive).
I was relieved to hear "you've got the ace of spades?. Damn. Well, I've got to pay if off".... expected now to see the king. Which I did. Along with an eight of spades. I had fallen behind on the turn and caught a break on the river. Nice.
Epilogue - a quick run of Flopzilla confirms my suspicions - it looks like a 8-1 bet that the player has a flush vs. a full house in this spot, based on hand combos. 8-1! You can see the output of that run in the shot below.
At the end of the night, M.O. tried swiping my blinds. I was feeling good and held a weak ace. I three bet him and he folded jack-ten. The online game works live.
Bet/Fold. Sometimes it's that easy. This hand is a loss of 18 big blinds.
This converter is going to be a cash cow...
HEM/Full Tilt NL Hold'em $0.05/$0.10 - 9 players
Button: $7.88
SB: $14.68 52/2 after 101 hands. Aggr. 1.4. Calling station supreme.
BB: $21.14
UTG: $3.50
UTG+1: $12.21
MP: $4.24
MP2: $3.40
HJ: $3.50
CO: $17.29 (Hero)
Preflop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with 
(9 players)
5 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, Button folds, SB calls $0.25, BB folds
Flop: ($0.70) 
(2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.45, SB calls $0.45
Top pair, top kicker, yucky board. Resist the urge to chicken out on the yucky board. This player will call with worse. Bet.
Turn: ($1.60) 
(2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.05, SB raises to $2.10, Hero folds
Any doubt that I'm still ahead in this hand? 2 straight draws out there, and a flush draw. He might be bad enough to think two pair is the nuts here, against me it is. Easy fold.
Here's a very similar hand.
Feral Cow Poker Hand Converter
HEM/Full Tilt NL Hold'em $0.05/$0.10 - 9 players
CO: $10.00
Button: $17.38
SB: $10.00
BB: $10.00
UTG: $6.74
UTG+1: $4.25
MP: $10.07 (Hero)
MP2: $20.37 44/23 after 48 hands. 1.4 aggression factor
HJ: $21.84
Preflop: ($0.15) Hero is MP with (9 players)
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.35, MP2 calls $0.35, 5 folds
Flop: ($0.85) 
(2 players)
Hero bets $0.40, MP2 calls $0.40
Similarly yucky board, no straight draw this time. Bet for value.
Turn: ($1.65) (2 players)
Could villain have a ten? Sure. He could also have A5. Bet for value.
Hero bets $0.90, MP2 folds
Villain folds. Guess he believed me finally.
I have been enjoying the slower pace of my recent online ring game.
No Rush.
Full Table, no 6-max.
I play 2 tables maximum. I am spending my energies using my HUD and trying to target ranges. I feel like I'm getting better. I definitely need more study of the hand range chart - I want to be able to rattle off the top 3%, 5%, 8% of hands, all the way to 50%.
The little bit I do know has helped me make a few decisions. It's working. There is no need to play 1000 Rush hands where you see 80 flops and have no more than 12 hands on an opponent, when you can play 100 hands and have 100 hands of history/notes on a villain. You learn more playing fewer hands per day.
Play this hand along with me. I'm not going to reveal villain's cards at the end. Tell me if you agree with my logic, or if I stumbled along the way.
Feral Cow Poker Hand Converter
HEM/Full Tilt NL Hold'em $0.05/$0.10 - 9 players
BB: $3.00
UTG: $10.80
UTG+1: $11.78
MP: $1.60
MP2: $4.51
HJ: $17.61
CO: $12.31
Button: $8.95
SB: $10.51 (Hero)
Preflop: ($0.15) Hero is SB with 
(9 players)
6 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, BB calls $0.20
BB is a 35/6 after 17 hands. 1.0 aggression factor.
Flop: ($0.60) 
(3 players)
Hero bets $0.40, BB calls $0.40
Value bet with top pair. Lots of hands a 35 VPIP will come along with that are worse.
Turn: ($1.40) (3 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $0.80, Hero calls $0.80
Betting this ace seems fishy to me. What hand did he call me on the flop that holds an ace? AK, A8, what else? I don't feel like many hands he could still be holding have an ace in them.
I have the added bonus that I'm chopping with all other kings now in case I was outkicked. If this player is truly a 35/6, chances are better that I was outkicking him if he holds a king. I decide to call this bet and check/call a reasonable river bet (will fold to a pot sized bet or bigger).
River: ($3.00) 
(3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks
Showdown city, I'll take it.
The turn is obviously the key street here. Is my logic ok? Will this final pot be too big for second pair vs. a wide range? It seems a bit borderline on the surface, but vs. this particular player, it was ok.
I wasn't mentally into playing tonight. I launched a single table and kept it going while I surfed and watched the NFL night game.
Still played well, and posted a win, but I wasn't there. Maybe I need a few days off.
You wouldn't have known it tonight, though. I was playing a few seats to the left of a 60/27 and was lying in wait. His bet size told you the strength of his hand - 2x or 3x was strong, up to 12x was the rest. He also showed the propensity to get his stack in with top pair - any top pair.
I was waiting (along with the rest of the table, probably) to call one of his 12x with AK or AQ and stack him. The one time I had KQs - he had raised 3x, so I played it a bit on the careful side (I was out of position, also), and he won a small showdown with an unimproved AK. Bleah.
He left the table after 125 hands or so and I got to wake up. The rest of the table's stats were nitty like mine (maybe all waiting for the maniac to make a mistake), but I came out swinging and won some blinds and small pots.
A nice 44 big blind win the start the month.
Started off down in the Thursday night cash game. My set of queens went runner-runner-four-hearts on the board. Mr. Pietzak made a small quarter river bet that could have been a bluff and I paid off his small flush. Some all-in aggression on the turn would have taken the pot down - it's not easy to turn a set of queens into a bluff in the face of three flush cards, though. It would have been the right play that time.
There should have been many more future opportunities with my position at the table relative to the good players and the bad players, but nothing was happening card-wise. Later in the evening, just as someone left the game and turned it short-handed, I picked up a nice little queen-nine suited and decided to raise it up. My image was spotless from folding for 3 hours. The action behind me went, call, minraise, (I call the minraise), then SHOVE, then CALL (shortstack). So much for queen-nine soooted. I watched ace-king and pocket fives battle it out for my dead $6 instead. My timing, once again, was a bit off.
On the literal last hand of the night, I came close to donking my stack away. I called a Mr. Pietzak raise with nine-ten offsuit from the blinds. Not my normal play, to be sure - drawing hands out of the blinds are a recipe for disaster. The board was jack-eight-rag, and I liked my chances with my eight out open-ender. I checked, then check-raised, Mr. Pietzak's flop bet. He smiled a bit like he knew it was coming, then said "bad timing, Matthew", and made the call. Top pair or overpair for him. I made a quick stack check - about 50 blinds left, about 36 in the pot. I was going to need some fold equity to make this play work. I waited for the bricky turn card, then I shoved my stack in. Mr. Pietzak said "give me a count please, because I'm strongly thinking of making this call". I wordlessly stacked the chips, (mis)-counted them out, then told him the incorrect total. Tony corrected me - and I knew I had probably just revealed my hand due to nervousness. Mr. Pietzak wondered aloud what I was holding - he didn't have to wonder very hard - there was one draw I could have and I had it. His only question was whether I had the club flush draw that showed up on the turn to go with the 9T on the flop. There's always the chance I have a set, of course, but am I pushing so hard with a set here? Don't I want to bet something he will call?
He thought a good while and then mucked it. He later said "I felt like I had him, but I didn't want to get unlucky for $60 on the last hand of the night". Unlucky is exactly what he would have found himself - a rabbit-hunted river would have given me the nut straight.
So my timing was ok after all.
Note to self - make sure to play a set like this from the blinds against Mr. Pietzak. Or pocket aces.
