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I was playing the last hand of the last table of February. My other three tables were closed down. I had already checked "Sit out my BB", and I was under the gun.
I was down a buy-in this night - playing ok, but lost a few decent pots with pairs that didn't hold up. 40 big blinds with kings (ace on the turn facing a shove), eights against an aggro-donkey (I blinked), and also some moves that didn't work out (light 3bet that was cold-4-bet from the blinds).
I am dealt 5-6 of hearts on my last hand of the night. An auto-throwaway about 95% of the time from this position. Actually, check that - I just checked it out. I have seen 56s and 67s forty-seven times from early position, I have played it seven times. All 6 times before this one with an open raise.
This time, I limped with my 56s. It's not the best play, it's not +EV in any way, shape or form, but I had reason for my action in the form of a crazy 55/38 nutjob in the middle of the table, with a 19% 3bet percentage. I wanted to play this last hand of the month. If I raised and he 3bet, which he did often, I would definitely not have the odds to call and hit something, especially since this guy had just lost a big chunk of money and was down to 52 big blinds (one would correctly argue that I'm already not getting the correct implied odds to worry about stacking this short-stacked yahoo). But, crazy 3better, last hand of the month, I clicked call instead of fold or raise. I have no excuse.
Sadly, crazy 3better did something out of the ordinary and actually folded this hand. Instead, I took the flop 4 way with the blinds and one other early position player.
And a nice flop indeed. Six of clubs, Three of clubs, six of diamonds. I had trips.
The small blind came out firing with a three-quarter pot bet. He was a 16/13 with high aggression and a 100% cbet percentage. All that added up to this bet meaning nothing. He could have a three, two overs, a flush draw, a straight draw, ace high, or air. The "mantra "don't go broke in an unraised pot" flashed before my eyes as I clicked raise. Was I raising for value? Was he getting his stack in with worse than my trips, five kicker? I had visions of losing the kicker battle to king-six on my last friggin hand of the month - a fitting way to pay for playing like a donkey just this one time (even as I watch the 52/38 donkey play 100 hands and never pay for his continual donkeyness - but no, me, the "student", will play one hand a month in a fishy way and stack myself with it).
The blind called my raise. Smelled like a six, a straight draw, 2 clubs, or 45. God forbid it was 33. This player wasn't going to play a big pot with 77. (actually, he probably would have isolated my limpy ass with any pair). He had a strong hand already, or a draw to one). My head was spinning trying to figure out which one...
Until the turn came. A glorious five of clubs. I had just passed up all the other sixes. I had passed up pocket threes. I had passed up everything, as I held the immortal nuts. Furthermore, if the villain was calling my raise to hit a flush draw, then he just hit it, and was probably ready to put a bunch of money into the pot, drawing dead.
The villain checks. I make my bet - $1.30 into a $2.00 pot, hoping I get raised. My hopes are realized - he raises to 4.50, committing himself. Flush time or a big six. We get rid of the suspense and get our stacks in, and he shows eight of clubs, nine of clubs - a flush, and drawing dead.
Check that. Not drawing dead. Drawing nearly dead. A seven of clubs will give him a gutshot straight flush to the nuts, and will give me the virtual version of the same thing. I have one out to dodge...
I flinch as the river card comes, but it's a harmless eight of hearts. My session goes from down a buy-in to near-break-even. My month stats improve, and my year-to-date stats take a nice jump as well.
The donkey is rewarded.
(regarding a hand in which I held Ace-Queen and he held Queen-Nine)
Him: "My nine has the same chance of winning as your Ace"
Me: "Uh, no. When we both hit a queen, I win. When we both miss, I win. The only way you can win is to hit a nine, one of three cards in the deck. All the other times, I win.
Him: .... (silence).
Some bad mistakes and a 2 out suckout stacking made for a poor afternoon today. Funny how you make a mistake, are not feeling all that good about how you're playing, then the poker gods kick you when you're down by letting kings catch up to aces and drive another nail in.
Those things happen all the time - I can live with suckouts. But folding the best hand against 2 fish was a real crusher, queens on a KK2 board, with betting and calling and there seemed to be no way one of them didn't have a king. They didn't - pocket eights and nines had me kicking a penguin after the fold.
The worst play of the day was simple lack for board reading - I held nine-ten on a board that turned me two pair - a 229T board - and failed to realize that big pocket pairs were still ahead of me. An awful, unforgivable oversight on my part cost me a stack.
Cash games Thursday and Friday left me mostly frustrated - although I pulled a profit in each. Hold'em was a 250 hand exercise in folding for the most part. I would have lost big in the Friday night session except we switched to some Omaha - where I both played pretty well and hit some big hands and got paid by second bests (a common occurrence when Hold'em players play Omaha - postflop hand values change so drastically. Queen high flushes are suicide - bottom set will win a small pot or lose a big one.
My online poker experience has been great this month overall, but only so-so this week. Still feel like I'm playing as well as I have ever played - mistakes seem greatly reduced, I'm finding correct spots to make plays (at least usually, I tried a squeeze tonight that failed badly, but I recovered).
No complaints for once.
That lesson is this: BET THE TURN.
Cash game last night, not much doing for me - I'm hovering in the profit zone and playing well. Our table is extra-limpy this occasion, and my cards aren't letting me either join the fun or punish. The temptation to join'em when you can't lick'em is sometimes overwhelming - I do indulge in perhaps a few more limps than normal, but for the most part try and stay true to my game.
Poker players are often rewarded for bad play, on this night one of my extra limps, with Jack-Ten, not suited and not in late-enough position, pays off in a half-family pot with a Jack-Jack-Ten flop. Hello, full house! Somehow, even with 3 to act after me before the button, they all folded this hand and left me last to act with the nuts. A nice situation indeed.
Made nicer when the small blind leads out, and the next 2 players call the bet. I call and hope that the board straightens or flushes further on the turn.
Some help comes on that front - a queen, and now the betting goes bet (of $3, into a $15 pot, but still), a RAISE to $6, and then a call of that raise. This is when I should have broken out the big stick - we've got ace-king for a straight, the case jack, and several draws willing to pay the piper. I need to become the piper there.
But I get greedy and call - hoping for more.
My bad play isn't rewarded twice on one hand - a horrible river card comes, another ten. The board is J-J-T-T-x. Now any yahoo with jack-six is chopping with me, and the flushes and straights have bricked off. The piper has left the building. Only the case ten will pay me any money now.
Three checks to me. I make a one-street-too-late half pot bet and get three instant folds. CRAP!
Bet the turn.
They had it every time tonight. Bleah. I played very well but I got aces and a set of queens cracked by flushes, and that was the difference in the night. I also got stacked with the underboat vs. the overboat. Gotta watch that one - probably could have lost a bit less than my whole stack.
One of my home game guys had a 40th birthday poker blowout last night - 30 guys in his basement. We started with a tourney that went nowhere for me, but the cash game that started up afterward made up for that.
Two of the players at the table were obviously new to live poker in any form. Problems with the mechanics of the blinds, how much needed to be put into the pot and when, and general nervousness about just sitting at the table were evident. I took advice from Mr. Mike Caro and was polite and friendly to a fault - complimentary to the one guy who who flopped the world for about 2 hours and built up a serious stack of chips, then bled it all away just as fast.
An example hand with him- I get a freebie in the big blind with ten-five. An ace-king-queen board leaves me uninterested, as does a 7 turn. Three players check through. But a jack river gives me the nuts, and I bet the full size of the laughable 1.50 pot (playing .50/.50 blinds on this night). The early world flopper calls my pot sized river bet and shows five-three offsuit for five high. Uh, ok. Sorry, sir, looks like I won this one, better luck next time.
The newbies left and about half the table was comprised of players from my Thursday game, so I was comfortable against them. Being dealt pocket aces three times in about 15 hands didn't hurt things at all, and having them hold up all three times was a bonus all its own. One of the three was a bit touch and go, though. Somebody raised my value bet on a Jack-Ten-rag board. I didn't know this player, and jack-ten is always a favorite hand to play, but his raise was a minraise and I wasn't sure if he was one of those "accidentally turn my top pair into a bluff because I don't know the concept of showdown value" types of guys, so I made the call. A turn brought a third club and he bet again, which smelled completely fishy to me. He had already revealed at the table that he wasn't a frequent player - so I ruled out him raising the flow with a flush draw on the come, then hitting it. Too sophisticated a play. He could still have JT, of course, or a set, as always, but my literal ace in the hole was the ace of clubs, giving me a backdoor nut flush draw. His bet was also on the smaller side, giving me pretty decent odds to hit a flush, set or a possible higher two pair. The last bit of information left to me was that he had bet about half his remaining stack - which might make sense for a good player who wants to set up an easily callable river shove against someone who he knows has an overpair, but didn't make much sense from an unsophisticated player with a strong hand. Maybe he had a set and suddenly chickened out to the 3 flush board? Still wasn't sure why, but his story wasn't checking out in my head, and I had backup equity and decent odds to hit it if I was wrong, so I called the turn also.
The river brought no help and I checked a third time, figuring I would be debating over a 5:1 odds all-in type call, but he sighed and checked behind, showing jack-six for one pair, no kicker. He said he was making a move trying to represent the flush but I didn't buy the move, and he saw why after I showed down my aces. I have certainly improved overall about folding one pair hands - even aces - in the face of danger - and I can't say if my inability to fold this time was hero or folly, but it worked out for me this time.
A second pair of aces won a big stack from CB - who never saw a flop he didn't like. This hand started with a player I didn't know raising to $3 - a 6 big blind preflop raise, which was on the high side for this friendly home game. I looked over at his stack and he had about the same left behind - he looked like he was taking a stand with this hand and ready to leave. Nice time to pick up aces again for me. I had only CB left to act behind me, and CB LOVES to see flops, so I decided to reraise big and try and send the big message that I had a big hand. I even said the obligitory "I'll give you some protection", before I made my reraise - to $12. This is a 24 big blind three bet - a normal size for a four bet at these stakes. CB didn't get the message, he called and wanted to see a flop. The original raiser apparently did get the message - he thought about defeatedly tossing his remaining chips into the middle, but then suddenly brightened up and said "wait, I can still fold, right?" - then laughed and tossed his cards away.
CB and I saw a 457 rainbow flop. I was first to act. I knew CB would call with any piece or any six, and I had to go with this hand. I bet $12 again - half pot, and got ready to call a raise, which would have hurt a bunch but was necessary. CB's response was "you're killing me" and called the bet. The turn was a horrid looking card - a seven, pairing the top card on the board. Not horrid from a combinatorial standpoint, of course, but some of CBs holdings (of just about any two cards) just caught me, and I had visions of getting my big pair cracked by a 5 outer - sort of a running theme in my recent cash games. I made a weak second $12 bet into the middle. CB stared at the board for a bit, then folded face up, as he always does (I think I know every single hand he has decided to play post flop and why) - he showed nine-ten of diamonds. "An eight or a diamond on that turn and I'm smiling" he says, which I suppose was true. An eight or a diamond turn would have given him a draw to beat me. As I have seen before, CB was chasing a runner-runner draw.
The table gave him some flack afterwards, at which point he went into his usual defensive routine about how he doesn't care about the money, how the 24 bucks in 2 bets he called was peanuts, about how he would just fire up his landscaping business and earn it back in about 3 minutes. All true, indeed. As long as we can fill poker tables with players who don't know how to play well, or don't care to do so, we students of the game should be able to grind out a good night here or there.
You often have to act fast once you identify a target at the table, there's a good chance he won't be there long.
It starts with me raising AQo from second position. This hand is borderline for me from this spot, sometimes I open, sometimes I fold. I have grown by leaps and bounds in the past 60 days in looking at the factors at the table that help me decide one way or the other. At this table, as it turns out, there were 2 people sitting out - making my position all the stronger, and the blinds were comprised of a 48/13 and a brand new player. We want to play pots with fishy people in the blinds, and a 48/13 fits the bill. I made the standard 3x raise.
Fishy guy flats, and then new guy, the big blind, makes a minimum 3bet to 5x. There is no purpose to the minimum 3bet. Are you pumping up the pot because you have a monster hand? Well, fine, you just gave me 5:1 odds to crack you (and more if the guy between us calls). As a habit, I don't fold to minraise 3bets, and I don't fold here, either. We see a three way flop.
The flop is a miss for me. Five-Five-Two, with two spades. Minraiser comes out, uh, firing, he bets .10 into a 1:50 pot, giving me 16:1 odds with ace high. Good enough for me. I make the call, as does the small blind.
The turn brings a king, and minraiser repeats his trick, betting .10 - this time giving me 19:1 odds. Direct odds to hit my ace. I make the call.
The river bricks off and brings a third spade. I half expect the guy to fire pot now, but he bets .10 into a 2.10 pot now, and I make the call again. This time, I just want to see what the hell he's up to.
He shows King-Jack offsuit. So, let's review. He three bet with a mediocre broadway hand, then minbet all the way down, even when he hit top pair on the turn. Obviously no thought of value or bluff, no thought of opponent ranges, just some goofball clicking buttons randomly. It cost me 8 big blinds, but I consider it a down payment on knowing what this guy is doing.
I don't have to wait long to use my newfound knowledge. Ace-king this time, suited in clubs this time. I make the standard raise. Given his cue, the button-clicker makes the min-3-bet again.
We have one hand of information on the guy, but it's all I need to know. I four bet to 29 big blinds. Button clicker calls the 4 bet, wanting to see a flop.
Flop misses me entirely, and is a bit dangerous. Seven, nine, ten, two spades again. I have clubs. The pot is now 5.90, and We have 8.50 back. An SPR of l.4. Button-clicker brings out his minbet once again - .10 into a 5.90 pot, giving me 60:1 odds this time. Even though he minbet last hand after hitting a pair, I decide my unimproved ace-king is still good enough times vs. this rando, AND that he will call with less (spades or an 8). I value shove ace-high. Button clicker doesn't seem to like this development - he searches for the correct action for several seconds, and then finally finds the fold button (which probably hasn't been clicked in a long time).
Button clicker goes on the min-3bet 5 times in 29 hands. He 3bets me one more time, as well - this time I'm holding queen-ten. Not a great hand, but as I said, I don't like to fold to min-3-bets, especially from a guy who doesn't know why he's using them. I hit a queen on the flop and call a minraise flop and turn. He decides to bust out a .30 river bet, giving me 8:1 odds this time, and even with 3 clubs, a pair of fives, and an ace on the final board, I make the call with second pair, ten kicker. Button clicker was value betting this same board with third pair - I drag another pot. It's my last at this table, capping a great +2 buy-in night.
I'm starting to think that. Maybe Dos Equis will make a beer commercial about me.
HUD stats do me no good. When a player steals my blind 5 times in a row, and I finally defend my big in position with QTs, and hit my ten, he has pocket jacks. When I play KQs in position to someone with a wide range who won't fold to a 3bet, he has pocket kings. When I flat a guy with AQ, the board comes all low, and he cbets, like his stats say he'll do 90% of the time, he doesn't fold to my raise, he reraises. When I squeeze with AK, BOTH players call, and I whiff the flop. 2 pair in the blinds vs. 2 enormous whales? The other blind flopped a straight.
This is all TODAY.
The calling stations flop trips, by boats get counterfeited by quads on the board. 2 outers, 3 outers, 5 outers, this is all routine shit these days.
Stay lucky, my friends.
Aces cracked by kings for a stack. A sick hand, too - king comes on the turn in a 4bet pot - the villain had 3bet several times at the table already, so AK was a distinct possibility. Same result as if we had gotten all in preflop, no biggie. Just a standard cooler.
Not good enough to overcome big coolers yet. I know they happen, not whining about it, just pointing out that I usually can't play a 500 hand session that contains one and make it a winning session. I'm not good enough.
My cash game has entered a bit of a funk in the past couple weeks. My table is eminently beatable, and sometimes difficult to bluff against, but last night I decided that I had become entirely too fit-or-fold, waiting for a hand, and ABC. I was watching other players stab at pots, bluff-raise flops, and punish limpers, and I needed to get back into the game. Literally.
Sometimes things work out, and sometimes they do not. With my newfound determination, I three bet an open raiser with Ace-Queen - knowing I would get called by worse. But behind me, Johnny J cold-called my three bet. Johnny J is the tightest player at the table, and I knew my AQ was crushed overall by whatever he was entering the pot with. The original raiser also called, and we saw a ten-ten-jack flop. Johnny J fired out from the blinds, the original raiser called, and I made the easiest check-fold of the night. Johnny J held pocket kings, and the original raiser had 3-outed both of us with queen-ten.
The 3-outer was the theme of the night. I saw so many hands where the dominated guy ended up winning the pot. Players at my table love to call with king-deuce and hit their king, and so rarely seem to pay for their kicker problems. If they hit their king then the villain has pocket queens, and if the villain has a dominating king then their stupid deuce ends up winning the hand with bottom pair. I must have seen 9 examples of this in the 120 hands or so we played last night.
I lost most of my money against Tony, who had been one of the biggest recipients of the 3-out ass-whipping at the table, and I knew he was steaming. He raised and I three-bet to $11 with pocket queens. I also knew that based on his current mental state, I was probably going to have to go with the hand preflop, figuring his frustration would have him shipping ace-king, ace-queen, and pocket jacks. He ended up calling, though, and we saw a flop. Tony only had 35 blinds behind.
The board came ace-four-five, and Tony checked. He's entirely capable of checkraising an ace-king here, so I ended up checking behind.
The turn was a six, and now Tony fired out a $10 bet, with $25 left back. I knew that if I called this bet, I would have a to call a bunch of all-ins on the river, too. It's the easiest play in the world to fold and just give him credit for the ace overcard, but I wanted to think this hand through as much as possible and come to a correct decision. A 7-8 straight didn't worry me in a three bet pot. I wasn't worried about kings or aces - I knew these were going in the middle preflop - Tony wasn't going to slowplay aces while steaming - he was going to steamshovel his stack into the middle of the pot as fast as humanly possible. I thought the same might be true with ace-king, also, so I was kind of half-discounting ace-king. Ace-queen was also just strong enough to call a three-bet with, but so were pocket jacks and tens. I also noticed that eights now had a gutshot draw. Tony would bet all of these hands after my flop check. I did a quick combo-count in my head and realized there were overall more pairs that I beat than ace-queens and ace-kings, especially if I was half-discounting ace-kings based on my thought that he would have shipped them preflop. I made the call.
The river bricked with a 2 or 3, and Tony shrugged and put the rest of his stack in. $25. The pot was now $75 and it cost me $25 to call, offering me 3:1 odds. Was I correct in my reads 25% of the time? Would he turn his pockets jacks (or nines or tens) into a bluff with an ace on board, AFTER I called a turn bet? Or would he think they were somehow good? Or was he just steaming enough to not care if they were good or not? Once again I tried to count combos: I counted 12 AKs, 12 AQs for 24 hands that beat me, and 6 combos each of 88, 99, TT, JJ for 24 that did not. Fifty-fifty, and I only had to be right 25% of the time to make the call. I made it.
I did the best I could, but Tony flipped over a hand I didn't take into account - pocket sixes. He had hit a 2-outer set on the turn. I really don't like his calling of a preflop 3bet with sixes and only a 45BB effective stack, but I failed to take into account that his steaming state might make him setmine without good odds. We don't always play correctly when steamed. So I doubled him up.
I re-ran the numbers in Pokerstove this morning. Now knowing that Tony was capable of setmining, I assigned him a range of all pairs except aces and kings, ace-queen, and half of the ace-kings. On the 2567A board, I am a 60-40 favorite vs. his range, and I had to call a 3:1 pot odds all in river bet. I feel like this opening range is fairly true to his final range - he probably doesn't continue with the pocket twos, threes, and fours, but he may be value/frustration betting all of the pairs from 88-JJ, and of course value betting the 55-77 sets, and the AQ/AKs as well. Even against that range I'm over 50% to win on my call, making it a correct overlay with 3:1 pot odds.
I liked the decision even though I lost a pretty big hand.
The big hand was yet another example on the night of the dominated guy winning on the river.
I did end up getting more aggressive in the last couple hours of the night- I went back to blind stealing even though the biggest calling station of the table was in my blind. I won twice vs him and lost once when he called preflop with 34s and flopped a straight. Since he came out firing with an over pot sized bet on the flop, and since my jack-six had whiffed entirely, I didn't lose much on that hand. I 3bet Tony from the blinds once more time, knowing that the last time I had done that was with pocket queens, and he had to give me some credit. He did and folded, after which I revealed my seven-deuce suited. The reveal was very much on purpose - an announcement to the world that fit-or-fold was leaving the basement, hopefully for good. I think it's time for online Tag to step over 100% to the live cash game side.
Felt tilty early after playing an ace-king hand perfectly, isolating a dumbass 63% VIPer with KJ, and losing to a jack on the river. It happens, right?
I thought I was down a buyin after that hand, so I fought hard to win it back. I found great tables and parked there. Aggro guys on my right? Cool, 3 bet them to death if they fold, wait for a hand if they call too much.
My notes are starting to pay dividends - I found one 33/22 type that didn't fold to 3bets. My notes say he defended with QT type stuff. So when I got pocket kings against him, I made my three bet a smidge higher - ok, a LOT higher, 4 times his opening raise. He called, then check/folded the flop, and I was that much richer.
One funny hand - I see 55 in the 3rd position. The two guys before me have limped already - one is a 63/0 guy - the other just got to the table. I go for the rare overlimp - figuring there are enough aggro guys who might 3bet my iso raise, but if I limp and they iso raise themselves, the fish will call and give me odds. Then I focus my attention to another table.
When I heard the Boo-Doop! full tilt noise, I focus back on my pocket fives. Flop is Jack-Three-FIVE!, and there has been a pot sized bet and a minraise in front of me! Oh sweet happy day. I reraise, get called, shove the turn, and stack KJ. It's his 5th hand of the table, he leaves before seeing a sixth.
Meanwhile, at another table, one guy has been buying in for the minimum, has taken a standard bad beat. This has put him on monkey tilt - he's now buying in for the minimum 35 big blinds and shoving preflop on basically any face card. He's also shoving lots of flops. I raise with JJ, board comes 556, he open shoves. Uh, ok, I call - he shows jack-three. Pretty good equity there for me. I get aces soon after. I make it 5BB to go after a limper, someone cold calls behind me, then shovey-shoverson re-shoves. Right. I re-re-shove to clear out the cold caller, and I'm up against queen-ten offsuit. By the turn he's drawing dead.
The best news of all - I check my session stats at the end of the night. The AK vs. KJ suckout from the beginning of the night was only for half a stack loss, not a full one. This gives me another 150 night, for a nice surprise. (not checking my session stats until after I'm done playing anymore).
See? I can play this game when you put meatheads at my table - meatheads who don't suck out.
a quick 300 hands in a 4-tabling session nets me 142 big blinds. An 86% won at showdown percent helps a bunch, so does finding some tables with some clueless guys waiting like a broken ATM machine to give someone their cash. (like the guy who waits until there are 4 spades on the board before shipping his two pair, and me sitting with the ace of spades, so sad for him)
tired of saying "good session of that donkey doesn't crack my aces" or "good session if you throw out that set over set cooler" or "good session if my aces hold up vs. jacks all in preflop" or "good session if I don't chop that hand that I was freerolling".
I could use a session that avoids the bad luck. I don't even need GOOD luck - I just need to win a hand where I flop a set and it holds up vs. J6o, or where I flop top set and one of my 3 opponents has either an overpair, or the flush draw, OR the straight draw on the board.
Kings in the cutoff, a total unknown is playing his first hand at the table. No HUD stats. He defends. Flop is 458 rainbow. You cbet, he check-raises you. Are you going with this hand, or do you just fold?
Cash game stunk for me last night cards-wise. Aces cracked by a set, two pair knocked out twice, calling stations hitting gutshots on me. I still managed to lose only 80BB, and I kept a decent attitude and didn't grouse or sulk my way through the evening. We'll call it a success on that front. A losing poker session is better than no poker session, and we had skipped our cash game for two weeks.
One hand gave me a tricky river decision, but it wasn't for a ton of cash so it didn't make or break me. I raised ace-queen from up front, saying something along the lines of "I haven't raised in a few orbits, let's try that". PC replied with "well, I finally have a hand so I'm going to call". He had position on me. I took his statement to mean broadway cards.
The board was all low with two clubs, and I didn't cbet. PC would just raise with any part of this board - top pair, small overpair, even a pocket pair under the top card. He often assumes his opponent has nothing and just raises (whether theses raises actually accomplish anything poker-wise is worthy of discussion). But out of position against PC isn't much fun when you have nothing, and PC is perfectly willing to pay a big price when you have something, so a check is the correct play. PC checks behind, which is odd for him. As I said, he likes to bet, with any made hand. Any pair is worthy of chasing out any non-pair in his eyes. PC doesn't slowplay sets, he doesn't check for deception. I took his checking to mean he also had nothing, which supported my earlier read of him having two broadway cards.
The turn brought some help - a queen. Top/Top for me, and I figured I was now ahead. I bet $4 into the pot, and PC raised. His raises are almost always minraises, so he made it 4 more. I knew this meant unequivocally that he had a queen in his hand also. He didn't have QQ, that would have brought a 3bet preflop, or a bet postflop. So he had queen-jack, or queen-king, or ace-queen, just like me. With my ability to narrow his hand range down so perfectly, and knowing I was ahead of or tied with that range, I probably could have re-raised the pot right there, and PC was willing to call (he often loses the kicker battle with his top-pair hands). But I'm not big on playing a large pot with a one pair hand, either - I felt like the best way to play it out was to call the turn and then value bet the river. (most likely sub-optimal play by me, if I know so strongly that I stand ahead in the hand, why not play for a big pot?).
The river brought another surprise - an ace, giving me top two. The ace also happened to be a club, putting three on the board. My river decision became harder now. My hand improved, but the ability to value bet actually went down, since that ace was over most of his likely holdings, all of which I was ahead of anyway. Still, I felt like some value was left in a bet, so I kept it small, $7 into a $23 pot. Here was the shocker - PC raises again, on the river, bumping it 7 more.
I was definitely calling the $7 into a $37 pot - I needed to have the best hand only 16% of the time for a call to be correct. We were heading into fixed limit poker territory with the betting of this hand. But I couldn't for the life of me figure out what he held in his hand. PC is pretty straightforward. He wasn't slowplaying aces. He didn't have queens, or any other set. I didn't think he had a queen-seven type two-pair (he IS capable of playing these junky hands, but his preflop announcement "I too finally have a hand worth playing" made me discount that). He didn't have an Ace-rag two pair, as he would have bet before the turn, and not raised it with one pair. He wasn't raising KQ or QJ with an ace on the river. The only thing that beat me here was a flush - but he wouldn't have raised a naked draw on the turn, and I would have thought he might have simply bet the flop with a flush draw instead of checking. I finally came to the conclusion that his most likely holding was the same hand as mine - ace-queen. It fit his betting actions to a T. I called the bet and expected mostly to chop.
I turned out to be one card off. He didn't have ace-queen, he had king-queen, but they also both happened to be clubs, for the nut flush. PC scooped the pot.
Not great of me to see that PC could have had both a queen AND a flush draw on this particular board. If I could have seen that, I could have been able to call out his hand on the river almost exactly (I would have said KQ or QJ), and perhaps would have folded the river (ehh, probably not, getting 5.4:1 odds with top two pair).
Reading those combo draws are tricky. I still felt pretty good about my ability to narrow PC down to a very small number of hands, I just missed the possibility of a made hand and a good backup draw to go with it.
Texas Holdem is always a battle between "keeping air in their range" and "letting them catch up".
Feral Cow Poker
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em $0.05/$0.10 - 9 players
Button: $10.18 (Hero)
SB: $8.39
BB: $10.00
UTG: $8.05
UTG+1: $2.66
MP: $14.63
MP2: $5.79 15/12, 15% PFR from middle position, fold to 3bet 83%
HJ: $9.90
CO: $10.47
Preflop: ($0.15) Hero is Button with 
(9 players)
3 folds, MP2 raises to $0.35, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.35, 2 folds
3bet is the easy play- I raise, villain folds 83% of the time, I win 4BB. I decide to take a flop in position, though, and stay ahead of his range.
Flop: ($0.85) 
(2 players)
MP2 bets $0.60, Hero calls $0.60
Flop is dry, but ace high. All villain's aces have caught up with me, even if they were his only 3 outs, my failure to 3bet prevented him from giving up that dead money. Still, there's no guarantee he has an ace in his hand, this villain cbets 80% of the time, so I'm calling and seeing a turn. I could even raise here, which makes him fold his air, and maybe his weaker aces, but it seems more like turning a hand with equity into a bluff.
Turn: ($2.05) 
(2 players)
MP2 bets $1.20, Hero calls $1.20
So I've let him continue and another card that might have been losing to me before has just caught me. He fires again, but I have a flush draw now as backup, plus the 2 jacks give me a boat. I could also be dead to AA/KK here, so maybe this is a bad call. (I sure would have know that had a 3bet or raised earlier in this hand)
River: ($4.45) 
(2 players)
MP2 bets $3.64, and is all in, Hero calls $3.64
Flush comes, villain has less than a pot sized-bet left. He puts it in. Do I fold now?
Hero mucked
MP2 showed 
, and won ($10.95) with a flush, Ace high
MP2 won $10.95
(Rake: $0.78)
I feel like I played this hand like a donkey calling station, all in the name of "keeping air in his range" and not "turning my hand into a bluff". Instead, I lose a half stack pot.
I love the suckout, then the re-suckout, especially when I started with the better hand.
Feral Cow Poker Hand Converter
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em $0.05/$0.10 - 7 players
BB: $10.00
UTG: $15.05 (Hero)
UTG+1: $5.30
HJ: $9.90
CO: $10.70
Button: $2.87
SB: $10.67
Preflop: ($0.15) Hero is UTG with 
(7 players)
Hero raises to $0.35, UTG+1 calls $0.35, 4 folds, BB folds
Flop: ($0.85) 
(2 players)
Hero bets $0.45, UTG+1 raises to $0.90, Hero raises to $2.50, UTG+1 calls $1.60
Turn: ($5.85) 
(2 players)
Hero bets $4.10, UTG+1 calls $2.45, and is all in
River: ($10.75) (2 players)
Hero showed , and won ($10.04) with a full house, Queens full of Aces
UTG+1 showed 
, and lost with a full house, Queens full of Jacks
Hero won $10.04
(Rake: $0.71)
Villain who calls an UTG raise with a dominated hand gets his just desserts - domination!
Sweet, sweet justice.
