tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-803565406050693453.post6400546923273298131..comments2023-10-06T08:52:51.137-04:00Comments on Holdem Notebook: Blind Defense (tl;dr)matt taghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08082969194551315973noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-803565406050693453.post-45104888223590971172010-09-13T14:46:25.990-04:002010-09-13T14:46:25.990-04:00I guess what I'm saying is that there's a ...I guess what I'm saying is that there's a lot of players who will flat your 3bet with worse hands, making this - at best, a value raise, but at worse, just juicing the pot.The Poker Meisterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18289059101454598371noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-803565406050693453.post-20653920184490984522010-09-13T14:27:39.642-04:002010-09-13T14:27:39.642-04:00I think I'll need to attempt a full spreadshee...I think I'll need to attempt a full spreadsheet to break down all of the possibilities.matt taghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08082969194551315973noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-803565406050693453.post-4772839224211956122010-09-13T14:01:42.509-04:002010-09-13T14:01:42.509-04:00"1) Value. Make worse hands than yours will c..."1) Value. Make worse hands than yours will call.<br />2) Bluff. Make better hands then yours fold."<br /><br />I think you misapply the concept in this case. I look at 3betting AK from OOP as a semi-bluff. You have a hand that needs to see a flop in which 22-QQ have you beat, and AA,KK have you dominated. Therefore, you have a drawing hand (loosely, a speculative hand - albeit a hand that is 50/50 with most pairs and dominates all Ax, Kx hands). <br /><br />Moreover, even if the villain has 72o, you are a 65/35 (thereabout) favorite going to see a flop. Point is, you're usually about a 60/40 favorite against most "reasonable" hands going into the flop, and 50/50 against non- AA,KK pocket pairs.<br /><br />What does this all mean? It means that you want to either juice the pot, being "generally" no worse than 50/50 going to see a flop, or you want to take the villain off a lot of his 50/50 range (i.e. 22-66). What you have written in this post makes perfect logical sense for hands like QQ+, where you ARE very likely FAR ahead of villains steal range... you can flat and extract value on the flop by letting villain hang / cbet himself to death. However [I feel] with AK, you have huge fold equity PF, and would rather announce the value of your hand right then and there - threatening stacks if necessary.<br /><br />What you essentially do in this spot is not altogether unlike limping AK to wait for a raise and then limp / re-raise the raiser (OOP or otherwise). I think it's such a marginal spot to do that; AK [again,]certainly needs improvement on the flop and beyond. By raising / 3betting right off the bat, you're exercising the value of holding AK; you're generally not dead when you get stacks in, but you have a ton of fold equity to get your opponent's 50/50 splits to back down. You show an instant profit.<br /><br />FINALLY, unless you put your opponent on exactly Ax or Kx, most unimproved pocket pairs are folding A high or even sometimes K high flops.<br /><br />Personally? I'd rather take the pot down right then and there - PF - where I know I'm usually 50/50... and cut down on variance (unless I get it all in which kinda sucks to flip for full stacks). I'm happy to take a 4.5BB win in this spot by taking it down with a 3bet.<br /><br />Sorry for the long commentThe Poker Meisterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18289059101454598371noreply@blogger.com