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Bleeding slowed to a buy-in and a half loss tonight (after moving back down). KK stacked by AA, blind vs. blind, nothing I could do. Only one other hand with 20BB losses, that was pocket tens.
But not one hand won over 20BB, in 400.
And we're over 1000 hands being dealt without aces. I checked the math - there's a 1% chance of that happening in any 1000 hand stretch.
It's variance, variance, variance. I don't play enough anymore to dig deep into the stats- I only have 6500 hands since July 1.
One really can't explain to a non-poker player, the frustration felt when trying to climb out of a bad run of hands.
This isn't me suddenly facing better competition, this is the deck being set up to make me lose money over and over again. I played 575 hands tonight, with 4 tables humming along pretty well. I think I was 3bet something like 20 times. Not by crazy 3betters, just by people with hands. And when you're raising 15% and can only continue with like 4%, then you'll be folding to 3bets a bunch. And I was.
One stretch of hands explains the downswing perfectly - I made an opening raise on each of my 4 tables in a brief period. On one table, I had 66, was called in position, and check folded a 9-ten-jack flop. On table 2, I raised ace-jack from middle position and was 3bet. I folded. On table three, I raised jack-nine suited and was 3bet. I folded. On table 4, I raised pocket kings and won the blinds.
No action with a real hand, facing aggression when I didn't. Like they could see my cards.
On, and I wasn't dealt aces one time in 575 hands, but I was dealt pocket twos 6 times. That's pretty hard to do.
My big hand losses were top set, all in on the flop vs. a nut flush draw, lost. I had someone call a squeeze with 68 offsuit and river a gutshot straight against me (I had top pair and paid off a big river bet because of a high aggression factor). I played ace-queen top pair slowly out of position (pot control) and let the donk hit two pair on me. And finally I squeezed with jacks and had the 65/5 donk check shove on my cbet when the board came king-ten-six.
Still loving my stats this month. 16/12 with a 3.7% three bet and a 5% squeeze. But variance has caught me - I'm down 2 1/2 buy ins now on the month - a big number when you only play a few thousand hands per month.
Like I said, frustrating.
My most common form of tilt is when I'm holding a monster hand. The adrenaline pumper kicks in and I stop thinking clearly. You might think that this form of tilt isn't very costly to my bankroll - after all, it doesn't hit until I already have a strong hand. But you would be wrong in that thinking
You can see my monster tilt in action here, when I stack-a-donked the loose luckbox with a set of tens. Once this villain called my checkraise, the adrenaline poured into my brain and I shoved the river so fast that my chips almost beat the river card to the center of the felt (I did have the wherewithal to make sure that the two flush draws bricked, that much I remember).
My tilt-induced auto-shove cost me money. The villain said something to the effect of "wow you must have something good, I fold", and flipped up 2 pair, sevens and fours, which hit on the river. Two pair isn't a bad hand, he was ahead of, say, pocket aces, and a more thoughtful and deliberate bet size (like repeating the $100 turn bet) might have gotten a call - no, should have gotten a call.
I experienced monster tilt again last night when I called a raise with ace-jack of clubs on the button, and there were three clubs on the flop. I had flopped the nut flush, mother of mercy.
My opponent lead the flop for $15 into a $23 pot, and I called. The flop was all low clubs, 8-high, so I was thinking he had an overpair, hopefully with a club to go with it. Kings would be glorious. My plan was to raise every turn card.
The turn was a 6 of spades, and my opponent stopped for a second, and then bet $30, which was a consistent size with my idea that he still had an overpair. I thought carefully and made it $80 to go, and then the monster tilt machine got turned on in my head right then. My opponent correctly surmised "so what, you actually flopped a flush?", to which I replied nothing. Then he called the big raise. Now I had to consider that he had a set at this point, but was still thinking overpair with a club, and I really wanted that club to hit on the river.
My desires were not granted - the river was a red eight, pairing the highest card on the board, and my opponent quickly and wordlessly slid the rest of his stack of chips into the middle of the table.
The warning bells were definitely going off in my head, but it was like they were muffled, under a bucket. I wasn't listening. I announced "call" without moving my chips, and he flipped over the bad news - pocket sixes.
I'll take a brief moment to whine about how well players run against me. The nut flush vs. a pair of sixes is 97.1% to win on the flop. He turns a set, so now I'm a 77% favorite, then he calls a 2.x:1 raise getting 4:1 odds, and hits the miracle runner-runner. Jesus Christ on a cracker.
But back to the hand. Bad river call, right? I mean, he's only betting $84 into a $213 pot, giving me 3.5:1 pot odds, I only have to be correct to call like 22% of the time, and I've got the nut flush. But I've got his hands narrowed down to an overpair with a club or a set, and this player wasn't donkish enough to think an overpair was still good after a giant raise on the turn.
He also never has a smaller flush here. His exact words to me were "so what, you actually flopped the flush?" - something one would never say if he had also flopped a flush. I knew he didn't have a smaller flush, I dead certain knew it. I ruled it out before he called the raise. All that leaves are boats and quad eights for him, and misery for me, but I called off the extra 42 big blinds anyway.
How impressive would it have been to fold that sucker face up? Gotta work on that monster tilt.
Fortunately for me, the "anger of losing" tilt usually doesn't cost me. Oh, I'm still steaming at the loss, but I usually just sit and stew and play my same preflop game (which is folding more than anyone else at the table). On this night, I topped up my stack with my last $60 to $110, now down $290 on the night, was immediately dealt pocket queens, and got my stack all in against a donk who thought his top pair of sevens was good. I held and doubled up, and was able to play my A game for the rest of the night.
I walked out of the casino down $62 and felt mostly good about it, able to crawl mostly back from getting stacked by a combination of runner-runner ridiculousness and my monster-tilt.
Nitfests, at every table. Lock has like 25 tables going at my stakes, I was playing on 3 of them, they were all running something like 15/10. I had one bad player on all three tables. I would swap tables in a heartbeat in the old days, but there are no tables to switch to!
I win 7 big blinds tonight - one big hand won, one lost, broke even the rest. Meh.
Frustrating. My home game didn't happen tonight due to lack of interest, and the online action was lame.
the wipeout session, eliminating the slow, steady climb of profit for the month in one shot.
Flush over flush, aces cracked by a set of tens, kings cracked by a gutshot. 2 1/2 buy-ins wiped. (Only the aces were played non-standard, I was facing a 3bet from the button while I was the cutoff. I flatted the 3bet thinking his range was fairly wide, and vowed to check/shove any flop, especially a draw-heavy one. Flop was 78T, and in it went).
I actually love my stats this month (only 1800 hands). My VPIP/PFR is 16/12, down from 18/13 last month. 3Bet and squeeze percentages are up, cold-call% is down. I feel like I've tightened up some leaks around the edges.
Just have to run better. Back at it tomorrow.
I know all poker players think they are unlucky, but the guy who cracked my aces this weekend is really really lucky compared to me.
One hand after the aces hand, I was first to act in the small blind with king-eight suited. I raised into him (a tilt raise, but not a bad one), and he called. By the time the river ran out, he of course held the nine needed to fill the straight.
A flush and a straight on consecutive hands! I didn't have either all night.
Later in the evening, it looked like I was finally going to outflop him. I raised ace-nine of diamonds, he called, and the board was Ace-Nine-Eight with two hearts. I bet big, knowing he floated many bets, and he called. I had him on an ace, the two hearts, or some sort of straight draw around the eight-nine.
The turn brought a low, third heart, and of course my heart sank a bit. But I sucked it up and made a standard bet-fold of $21. He looked a bit hesitant and then called the bet. He would have raised his flushes and dumped the straights, so I now had him on some type of ace and his kicker being a heart for flush backup. I was hoping for a river brick.
And I got it. My two pair was even still the top two pair on the board, so now my best hope was that he had a lower two pair himself, or a queen or king kicker that he couldn't lay down to a big bet. I checked his stack, said "hmm, you've still got plenty of money" (a weak attempt to try and sound bluffy), and bet a cool, even $30.
He didn't look comfortable, and I was pretty sure I had him. That is, until he said "I can beat everything except that flush". Huh? Does he somehow have a straight? I checked the board again. No straight. Is he saying that with two pair? Maybe he has ace-nine like I do.
Then it hit me. He had pocket eights. He had actually flopped bottom set against my top two! He slowplayed the flop, and now he's panicking on the flushy board, putting me on the flush. And once again, I have been value betting against him with an inferior hand. For the love of all things holy...
He asked me a few questions, trying to get information out of me. I think I did a pretty good job acting relaxed and not giving anything away. "Will you show if I fold", he finally relented - he didn't want to call. "Sure", I replied. I'm a friendly guy. He folded, and I showed my top two, which got a "woooooow" from the table, and a bit of a hissy fit from my villain.
I got lucky against the luckbox, for once, and bluffed him off a better hand, even though that wasn't the intent of my line at all.
Going to work out the equity of my aces-getting-cracked hand from last night.
3 limps to me in the Friday night cash game, when I take a peek at my cards and see Ace of spades, Ace of diamonds staring back at me.
I make it $4 and get 2 callers. Flop is King-o-Spades, Jack-o-Spades, and a brick (maybe a red 4). I bet 11 into the 13.5 pot to make the flush draw call incorrect. One player calls. The pot is now $35.5
Turn isn't a great card - the queen of spades. Plenty of two pairs just caught me, and the flush draws of course. And Ace-ten. I take a look at my opponents stack before deciding on my play. He started short and has only $36 back. If I bet half of that $36 and get shoved on, I will need to call $18 to win $89.5, for a nearly 5:1 pot-odds call. Do I want to commit myself that way now?
If he shoves, I will put him on two pair, a made flush, a set, AT, and also a pair with a flush draw (say King-Ten with the ten of spades. Seems like a weak hand but this player doesn't like to fold preflop). I especially think he doesn't fold with the ten of spades, giving him a royal flush redraw (which he can't hit because I have the aces of spades).
Of all the hands he could have, I would have a staggering 19 outs vs. two pair, 14 vs a set, 11 vs. a straight (some are chop outs), 7 vs. a flush, and I'm actually ahead of top pair+flush draw combos.
I would have to weigh all likelihood of each of these combos for a proper weighting, which I can't do at the table. Just averaging the outs when behind gives me around 13 outs on average, which I would weight downward because he's much more likely to shove with a made flush than with 2 pair/set on a 3 spade board. So 10 outs roughly when behind, and at least some chance that I'm ahead, with a pot sized bet left in our stacks.
Time to commit. I bet 18, he defiantly puts his stack in. I take a few seconds to re-do my mental math, then I make the call. He shows 67 of spades for the made flush. I have 7 outs that don't get there.
