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from @notontilt09

Fold fold fold fold fold, espresso, raise raise raise raise, float, 3b, jam.

How good are you?

Monthly $50 tourney, 8 players left. An unusual tourney for me in that I actually accumulated chips early, as opposed to dwindling down to nothing and then shoving for 3 hours. I played table bully for awhile with my big stack, but my cards and opportunities disappeared in the middle blind stages, so I've been holding tight and waiting for a hand.

Blinds have just gone up to 200/400, and I have 5800 chips. 14 and a half big blinds left. In early position, I'm dealt pocket queens. I raise up to 1600, a bit bigger size to make up for my position, but I get one caller anyway. Pot is 3800.

Flop comes Jack-Ten-x, and my queens remain an overpair. My opponent, a decent player who isn't playing connectors ace-rag at this stage of the tournament, glances over at my stack, and then back at his. I pause a beat to check his mood, he looks comfortable.

I have 4200 chips left, a pot sized bet. SPR of 1 and an overpair in a fast tourney, pretty much a no brainer, right? I stick my chips in. He asks how much, but only to count out his chips to make the call. I pray for ace-jack, but am not expecting it.

He tables pocket kings. Nice hand, sir. I'm out in eighth place.

No big deal. If he reraises me preflop, I'm not folding queens with 14 blinds left, and he coolers me the more standard way. The thing I keep thinking about, though, is that I was pretty sure I was behind on the flop. My opponent's actions, mannerisms, and mood was telling me as much. Am I good enough to fold at this point of a tourney, though? Is it even correct to ever fold there? I guess I would feel pretty dumb if his comfort level is due to holding ace-jack or king-jack, which is entirely possible.

So I'm not going to stress over it, just wondering if it's possible. They say someone folded quads in the One Drop tourney because he knew he was beat, so I suppose it's possible to fold queens as an overpair with a pot sized bet left to play.

But I don't think I'm good enough to do it.

very narrow range

.50/$1 home game last Thursday, first hour. I check my hole cards and spot 2 black aces. Hello!

I raise to $3, and the player on my left 3bets to $6. This player is JJ, the biggest rock/nit at the table. A three bet from him means 2 hands only, pocket kings or pocket aces. Since I hold two of the aces, he is six times more likely to have pocket kings.

The standard play is to 4bet, but JJ is such a nit that he would actually consider folding his kings to a 4bet. I decide to call preflop and lead out 3 times instead, knowing exactly how he will play the hand post flop. He will call, call, call, and I'll win a decent pot as long as I don't scare him away with giant bets. Nonstandard, but the best way to play against this player in this situation.

The flop is ten high. I lead right out into him for $5. He calls quickly.

Turn is a low brick. I bet $9. "What the hell are you betting with, Matty?" he asks. He calls.

River - the king of diamonds.

A little laugh runs through my head. "Well, maybe he had queens", I think hopefully. I check. If he does have queens, he'll check behind. Instead, he bets $12.

Easiest fold ever.

Cleveland Horseshoe report

Five and a half hours wins me a stack - $202 profit playing $1-2 on a Friday night.

I've been wanting to work on my Monster Tilt problem that I mentioned in a prior post, but of course that depended on my hitting some big hands, which I hadn't really done much in the last 2 sessions. Last night was different. I raised pocket kings and improved on an Ace-King-Six rainbow flop. My opponent, a decent beginning player who is trying to play well, then donked right into my set. Oh, happy day. I immediately put him on a big ace or maybe a weak hand on this board like pocket tens, who just wants to get me off of a missed flop.

Thinking immediately of the "big hand, big pot" principle, I raised the bet to $35. I knew I wasn't winning much more from his garbage, so folding those hands out was no big deal. When he called the $35 raise, he really limited himself to a couple hands only - pocket sixes for bottom set, Ace-King for top-two, or maybe an ace-queen that doesn't believe me yet. I didn't think this player would be venturing any further down the bad kicker category with his ace.

He checked the next card. Since he seemed willing to keep playing, I kept the pressure on with a $60 turn bet. My opponent didn't look comfortable - he took his time and thought through his best move, and couldn't come up with one. He called. I knew he has ace-king now. Pocket sixes would put me on ace-king and get it in. He was too cautious to play a big pot with Ace-queen.

The river came and he checked again. I had like $110 left. I was controlling my monster tilt well - thinking hard about the best bet size. Shoving was too strong, and anything over $100 sounded too big to me. I settled on $85. He again took his time and finally called.

"You've got ace-king, huh? I said as I flipped the bad news. I felt bad for the kid - he was in a very rough spot against me.

I had a couple more monsters to practice my emotional control. I raised a little ace-seven and got 4 callers. I hit my flush draw but on a bad board for betting. I had position on the other three opponents so I just checked and took my free card. Wonder of wonders, it completed my flush. Better yet, one of the blinds bet into me. Once again, I got to take my time and consider the best course of action (a raise), got my opponent to do what I wanted (call me), and was able to maximize value in the hand. (he folded to a $75 river bet, my guess is that he had a single high flush card that missed on the river).

Finally, an obvious beginner player made a raise and I called with pocket fours. The flop came four/six/ten and he bet pot into me. I knew for 100% certainty he had an overpair. I remained calm, decided there was no way this guy could fold an overpair, raised, and he shoved. I called and had to dodge a third queen coming, which I did.

No big losing hands of note. I did have a hand where I called a shortstack shove with KQ on a JTx board, getting exactly 2-1 odds to chase my straight, and an overlay when I found out I was up against a weak jack and pairing my king or queen would give me a win as well. I lost $60 in this hand, but had no trouble doing so knowing my play was profitable long-term.

I'm keeping track of my Horseshoe results separately - I'm currently at a profit of $561 in 45.5 hours of poker (9 sessions). I'm running about 25BB/100 hands - a very strong showing so far.

Tweeting the time away

I was so bored amidst the 7 hours of folding last night that I started tweeting some of my observations about the donks and my lack of cards. I decided this was fun enough that I've created an alter-ego, who will now serve as my outlet for all live poker whining.

Please add @CardDeadDoug to your twitter follow lists. I'll try to be funny, promise.

Murderous thoughts

I've been pondering an angle for a recap of my 7 hour Cleveland Horseshoe session last night, but I couldn't come up with much new.

Another frustrating night of no cards! I must have seen nine-four offsuit 10 times. I did get queens once - the hand was a misdeal and I had to give them back. And my selective aggression blew up in my face over and over.

I cbet a board when I flopped a gutshot straight and was raised by a 65 year old nit. Auto-fold. Soon after I took a shot when the table was briefly 5-handed by raising a little seven-four suited and was immediately 3bet. He showed Kings.

The last one really got my blood boiling. I raised up a limper with an actual ace-queen, and a new player to my left 3bet immediately. I mean, I sit here and fold for hours at a time, more than anyone at the table, and then when I come out with a decent hand, someone has something better. I felt my brain go from 0-60 and the urge to shove all in started tempting me, but I took the safe route and folded yet again. My lovely villain then proudly exclaimed. "I haven't even looked at my cards yet", and revealed ace-nine once the chips were pushed his way. Greeeeeat.

This guy went on for the next two hours giving me all his lessons and theories on the game. He would rather play 8-5 offsuit, for example because ace-king ain't gonna win in a place like this. I had no idea of what this meant, but I smiled and nodded and pretended like I was taking it in.

He did have a reasonably effective LAG style, but he was also hopeless postflop - he would just barrel and barrel without much regard to number of players or board texture. I was forced to loosen up my game. I called a raise of his with ace-six suited after yet another one of his raises from the blind after some limpers. We were three handed. I flopped my ace and also two hearts for the nut flush draw. My check brought the $20 bet I knew was coming, and the third player called this bet as well. I blasted them all out of the pot with a committing check-raise. He moaned and flipped over pocket jacks - a real hand this time, but I had outflopped him.

This hand and one other (another checkraise with a flopped set of twos from the blinds) were the only decent pots I won - and were just enough to cover the blinds being eaten away as I server as a spectator only. I walked out of the Horseshoe with a 15 big blind profit. 7 hours of agony and headache, tilt-inducing folding.

no great option

Neighborhood tourney last night, 28 players on a $50 buy-in. 6 players left at the final table. I've got 7100 chips in the middle of the 400/800 blind level.

My image is terrible - I've been in shove or fold mode for the last hour. Fortunately I've been given enough half decent hands worth shoving - Ace-ten, Ace-Queen a couple times, a King-Queen, and pocket eights. The other players are frustrated with my play, which tells me I'm doing something right.

On this hand, I post my 800 chip big blind and everyone folds around to the small blind, who minraises to 1600. I check my cards and find a little 8-9, both diamonds.

I take a few seconds to decide what to do. All three options are reasonable, really. In fact, as I think about in some detail, all three options are so close in value to each other than none of them really stands out.

I could flat and play my hand in position. The downside to this is that I'm pretty short stacked and certainly don't have enough chips to call bets to the river trying to hit a draw.

I could shove my stack in. This player has minraised before, and it has always been a middling strength hand, not a monster. My issue with this play is that he is as short stacked as I am, and he may just decide it's time to "gamble" with a hand like king-jack, and he'll end up having the best hand. This is even more likely because my own image is bad right now. I have probably been all in at this table 6-7 times and not been called yet.

I could always fold. Then again, folding to a minraise in position seems pretty weak, especially against an opponent I feel I can read pretty well and know where I am in the hand.

I opt for calling the raise and seeing a flop. I don't love it, but I figure I'll still have 5 big blinds and late position coming soon to steal blinds and keep up with enough chips to stay alive in the tourney in case this hand doesn't work out.

We see a flop - and it's not a bad one for me. Jack high, and then a 2 and a 3. There are 2 diamonds. I have hit my flush draw. However, my opponent makes a solid 2400 chip bet into a 3200 chip pot. He has committed himself.

This tells me he has a jack. And it tells me he's not folding. Most players would just shove their stack in here. "Flush draw, short stacked, gotta gamble, all-in!". But if my opponent isn't folding, then what good is shoving a 9 out draw? I hit about a third of the time and miss two thirds. Getting all in as a guaranteed 2:1 underdog doesn't sound like good poker.

I don't think calling the bet is an option at all - nowhere near enough chips to try and hit my flush.

With shoving and calling as poor options, I choose the only option left. I fold.

I've been thinking about this hand for awhile now. If I have to fold after flopping a strong draw, then was it a mistake to call in the first place? I think the correct way to see the hand is that I flopped a flush draw, but my opponent also caught something he wasn't folding, and he committed himself. I think if he whiffs the flop, he either checks or makes an easy to read weak stab bet, and I can shove against either one and win the pot.

So the call was ok (maybe the best of three not-great options), I just hit a bad flop to make a move on. I probably win enough times between hitting hands and bluffing him off misses to easily justify the preflop call.

I was able to double up a few hands later, and then stay alive to the last three, where we arranged a chop so we all got second place money, then we left $100 aside and played winner take that. Our host likes this because he can name a single winner. I was the first out after chop (KJ called by A9), so I placed third but took home second place money - $300 for a $50 buy in.