Reads over Rules

The learning poker player adapts handy rules of thumb that can keep him out of trouble. One often-used rule for TAGs with weak-tight tendencies is "small hand, small pot".

A few weeks ago, I raised the dreaded pocket jacks and got three-bet from a blind around the table. This was the typical 1-2 table where three-bets were QQ+ and sometimes AK, and not much else. The probable best play is a fold, but the 3bet was a min-3bet, we were deep enough, and I had position, so I saw a flop.

The flop was all low (nine-high) and my opponent checked. This obviously screams ace-king for the most probable hand in his narrow range. But the weak-tight tendencies showed up, and, fearing the checkraise from AA/KK, the "small hand, small pot" rule dutifully reminded me that I really wasn't ready to commit my stack with this hand yet, so I checked behind.

The turn brought another low card, and now the opponent made a healthy, near-pot-sized $45 bet. Of course, my check gave him license to fire with AK or anything else he might be holding. With the pot escalating and doubt creeping into what should be a pretty clear-cut read, I made the fold, first proud of not breaking the "big hand big pot" rule, but later mentally kicked myself for several days for doing so, for not trusting my own handreading skill (which isn't great, but in a 3bet pot in a donk 1-2 game, it's no rocket science).

So now we fast forward to last night, again at the Cleveland Horseshoe, where I no longer have to worry about making a mistake in a big pot, because I've already gotten 150 big blinds whisked away from me with kings preflop, vs. Aces, easy as you please. Facing the preflop shove, the familiar fear crept in (which would have obviously helped me this time), but this time my read was that this player could have queens or even jacks as easily as aces in this particular situation, and a call was mandatory. "Shut the fuck up and take your beat like a man", my brain told me as I announced call, then watched the shiny aces flip over across the table.

A standard, brutal result, but correct play based on my reads. This was actually somewhat comforting - I was playing without fear and rationally trying to put players on ranges and play hands correctly.

I had my stack back up to about $300 with a reload and winning some pots, still down about $150 on the night, when a tight-ish player raised it up from early position. The $1-2 donkey chain of fools started calling, and I got to look at pocket jacks on the button. Probably a no-brainer squeeze, but of course I had already been stacked and stung tonight, and my old friend fear whispered to just call this time, so I did.

We got a flop of . The entire field checks to me.

Weak-tight or not, my jacks are an overpair and 4 people have checked to me. I bet $25 into this $50 pot. Two players called. One was an uber-donk out of the blinds who had like $75 back, and I knew could have any pair or draw here. I wasn't worried about him. The second guy, to my immediate right, was too loose preflop but seemed ok postflop. I put him on some kind of ten (maybe with a weak-ish kicker, as Ace-ten probably leads out on this board), or the spade draw. He has around $400 in his stack.

The turn helps nobody with a . Now the villain leads out for $20. This is a clear, no doubt-about-it blocking bet in my estimation - he's trying to see the river card cheaply. So now I have competing thoughts - the old "small hand, small pot" tells me to call this bet and evaluate the river card, but my read is that this guy is most likely on a spade draw or a weak ten (he can't be on both because of how the suits are arranged), and he will obviously call a raise with the draw, so I bump it up a bit more to $45. The donk in the blinds calls this bet, and then the weak-lead calls also.

The river arrives - it's a , making the final board . There's a 4 card straight for anyone holding a 5, and 89 has been there the whole time. Now my opponent leads out for a healthy $75.

My old friend makes a brief appearance in my head, but this time I shoo him out quickly, eager to try and piece this story together. What does he have? Here's a running synopsis of what I throw together:

Did he have eight-freaking-nine the whole time? Possible, sure, but I rule it out. This player had previously raised up trip kings and said "I had to, with the flush out there". Thanks for the info, buddy. Now I know he doesn't like to lose his made hands to flushes, so 8-9 goes away.

With the same logic, I can rule out flopped sets or two pair hands. Buh-bye.

Can he have a five in his hand? He's not loose enough to have unsuited cards like 56 or 45 in his range, so I focus on looking at suited stuff. My biggest fear is a , along with another spade, that has backed into a straight. I only see four-five, ace-five, and seven-five, all spades, as possibilities. I don't think he's a queen-five/jack-five kind of guy. Then I rule out 45, which hit his straight on the turn, and would have 3bet my $45 turn raise.

Would he make this big bet with a ten? I decide that yes, he might, especially if his kicker is good (ace-ten/king-ten), AND with another super-donk in the hand with us, AND the possibility that he thinks I might be the one on the flush draw. I had ruled out some big-kicker tens earlier, so that's some competing information, but maybe he's got queen-ten or jack-ten type of stuff. Ten-nine and ten-eight (more likely suited), give him pair+gutshot combos. So there's some tens he can have, and these don't all necessarily have to be suited, giving him more available combos.

So I'm left with him value-betting some worse hands, a couple flush/straight combos that backed into a straight, and busted spade draws.

It's a big bet that of course I fear calling. I mentally picture him turning over , and me cursing myself for another month for building a big pot and then paying off a big river bet with one pair. But my final thought is to trust my read and live with the result. My read says I'm ahead often enough to call this bet. I make the call. The other donk folds his whatever.

"Busted spades", he says quietly, flipping over .

Poker down time

The significance of poker goes up and down in my life - this is one of the down cycles.

I'm pulling the plug on my hosted cash game. Too frustrating trying to get enough players lately, and it will only get worse as summer starts, with golf, softball, etc. I'll look for another Friday game, and simply stay downtown and play in the casino after work if that doesn't work out.

Online poker is out, also. I was on Lock - with all the rumors and talk this past week, I've cashed out. I'm hopeful but not confident that I'll ever see that money (it's not that much money).

But I still love playing. I played at the Shoe yesterday and faced a rough session with several of people sucking out on me - took a one buy-in bite out of me. But I kept my calm and played well throughout.

I also saw the usual truly awful, Level 0 poker - enough to make me realize there will always be a table waiting for me somewhere where I can make a few extra bucks. Yesterday's head-scratcher was a loose, semi-aggressive player raise up to $10 and get one caller - a tight guy who had barely made a peep all night. He had a big stack after winning a 3 way all in with QQ vs. AK and AQ.

The flop came Jack-Jack-Five. The tight guy bet out $15, at which point the loose guy raised to $35. The tight guy thought for a few seconds and then called.

I had the tight guy on Ace-Jack, King-Jack or Five-Five. I wasn't even sure of King-Jack because this guy played so few hands - I wasn't sure if he would call a raise with it. But I left it in because he was perhaps adjusting to the wide-ish range of the other guy. I ruled out any type of shlong-measuring contest with pocket eights or something like that. Tight guy was pretty ABC.

The loose guy was a bit tougher to range at this point - I felt like his range could be "for information", meaning he had a pair and was just trying to figure out how strong the tight guy was. After tight guy made the call, I figured he had all the info he needed.

I don't recall the turn card, but tight guy lead out for $50, and loose guy called pretty quickly. I still had tight guy ahead - either outkicking loose guy with his trip jacks, or already with the full house.

Tight guy took a glance at the river (again, I don't recall the card), looked down at his chips for several seconds, and exclaimed "I'm all in". Loose guy still had over $200 in his stack at this point - this had blown up into a massive pot. Loose guy shook his head a bit, then said "I call", and flipped over.... pocket aces.

How in God's name did he think aces were good on this hand? I have no idea, and will never know. But as long as people think this way at my table, I will find success in poker, even if I play infrequently.

not much to explain...

This was me last night in a 4 way all in for my tourney life...

Hand 0: 13.052% 10.19% 02.86% 3983166 1119505.50 { Ad2d } 
Hand 1: 53.506% 53.42% 00.08% 20886660 32314.50 { QQ } 
Hand 2: 16.436% 16.35% 00.08% 6393510 32314.50 { 44 } 
Hand 3: 17.006% 14.14% 02.86% 5529312 1119505.50 { Ah7h } 

And after the 337 flop...

Board: 3c 3d 7s
Dead: 

    equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied   
Hand 0:     03.293%      02.99%     00.30% { Ad2d }
Hand 1:     69.146%      69.15%     00.00% { QQ }
Hand 2:     10.427%      10.43%     00.00% { 44 }
Hand 3:     17.134%      16.83%     00.30% { Ah7h }

2 running diamonds later, a quadruple up for me, and I go on to place second.  We all know you have to get lucky to win a tourney, but egads.  

Double Luck

Hitting a strong hand is only half the battle. Your opponent has to have enough hand to pay you off also.

.50/$1 home game last night, I'm hovering a bit above my starting $110. I raise pocket nines from an early position, and three people decide to take a flop with me.

Flop is 9 6 3, all different suits.

.

Ok, I'll take that flop. No flush draws for anybody to chase, but 78 and 45 can come along. Most players can have TT also, and some can have JJ (others would threebet it). I bet $8 into $15 and one player decides to come along. Time for the inner happy dance...



The turn brings a jack, and completes the rainbow - no flush draw possible. I'm going to bomb away now, $22 into a $31 and hope for a call. I get it!



The river brings an ace, which I actually think is a bad card for me. What the hell can this player have besides a busted draw? I suppose Ace-nine or Jack-nine are possible, but 3 nines are accounted for. So what's my play?

I could check to induce a bluff from a busted draw. A good option against some players, but not this opponent. I think with the pot bloated up this big, he'll just check behind and say "I missed". So I'm going to completely rule out trying to get paid by 78 and 45.

I could bet small to get a crying call from his pairs. Probably the correct play.

I think there's a better question available than "what does he have?", and that question is "what could I have?". Look at my line. Raise, bet, bomb, with the jack coming as an overcard, and the river the over-est overcard, the ace. How am I bombing away on every street? If I bomb the river again, what possible hand can I have except for 99, JJ, or AA?

I think when your perceived range is this narrow, a giant, polarizing bet looks very suspicious. It has to look bluffy. I learned that in my Big Pot Fear Training hand two weeks ago. Should I bomb the river and hope he has something that can pick off a bluff? I don't think it's going to work very often, but it doesn't really have to.

I take out a stack of red $5 chips, add a few to the top, and slide it out. I feel the table shift nervously at the big bet. "How much?", he asks. "$65", I say, and unstack/restack it up to count it and make sure. "Well, I have to call, I have top two", I hear after a second. He flips over ace-jack.



I have no flipping idea how he's holding ace-jack by the river. So indescribably lucky for me. Not only lucky enough to flop a set, but lucky enough for someone to decide to float while drawing 100% dead on the flop, and to runner-runner two pair.

Part 2, river call

I made one interesting call last night in the $1/$2 game.

I raised AdKc to $10 from under the gun and was called in one spot by the mark at the table. I hadn't played with him before but the regulars had advertised that this was the guy in the game worth playing with.

Flop is Ac Tc 5c. Top pair and nut flush draw for me. I like my hand vs. this guy. I lead out for $15, and he raises for $40.

It's a good raise size. I certainly have enough equity to gamble here, shoving all in can never be a huge mistake. But in case he flopped a flush, set, or two pair, I think calling is better and extracting equity if I hit. I feel I will lose less when behind but still be able to win the max when I outdraw him. I make the call.

The turn bricks and I check. He checks behind.

No flush for me on the river. I check and he bets $40.

I work through the hand. Why would a made flush check the turn? Two pair or a set might check, fearing the flush themselves. It's also possible he has the ace with the queen or jack of clubs, which I beat.

It didn't quite add up. I had seen this player fast play 2 pair on a dangerous board before, without much regard to being beating. I didn't think I would always be good, but I did think I was good often enough to make this call. I said "I want to see it" and tossed in the 8 red chips".

"Good call, I have a ten. Ace is good" he said. He didn't show his other card, but said it was a club. Seems like I would have been able to win a bit more with another club.

Big Pot Fear Training

Fairly tough $1/$2 home game last night - where at least 3 players were equal to or above my skill level.

I was holding my own and up a buy-in when I decided to open a marginal 96 suited from early position. My image was squeaky clean and I took this shot to open up my game. The button defended- one of the very good players who is not afraid to apply pressure.

The board came 456, giving me top pair with nothing to go along with it. I made my standard cbet and got called. His call could be a float with overs a medium pair like 99-TT. I felt like he would raise hands that gave him some kind of backdoor equity like 67 or even 88.

The turn paired the 5. My hand didn't matter much anymore - I was squarely affixed on trying to get him to fold his range. I bet $50, which he called after some thought. I knew it would take a third barrel.

The river was an innocuous looking jack, and I had made my decision already. Perhaps not a great decision to barrel three times into a good hand reader after a weak open, but there was an ulterior motive to my bet - overcoming fear - something I obviously need to work on. There was no real fear here - I had a feel for his range, and I felt like it couldn't take much pressure. I slide $75 out to the middle.

The good hand reader breathed out very fast and said "wow, that feels like a bluff to me". He had me. He worked through the hand out loud, street by street, and came to the correct decision. "I call", he said. "I have a six" I said as I flipped over my hand. "So do I, said he, and turned over king-six suited. "Nicely done", I said, and meant it.

My play lost me a big pot, but also put some of the good players on notice. My range isn't always the top of the hand chart. I also put the thought in my opponent's head that I can three barrel bluff, which should help me in value betting in the future. And look how thinly I could have value bet this hand - pocket sevens through tens all win a big pot, and so does a bluffed jack that spikes his pair on the end. Queens through aces get paid off big, also, not to mention hands that actually flop big.

So a big pot lost now - we'll call it an investment in the future.

Big Bad Wolf? Yah, I know him

I fired up an online session tonight with the distinct task of working on tackling my fear. Obviously, the poker gods saw this as the absolute perfect opportunity to allow me to drive myself to valuetown.


MP3: $22.62 (113.1 bb)
CO: $22.48 (112.4 bb)
BTN: $18.35 (91.8 bb)
SB: $26.41 (132 bb)
BB: $20 (100 bb)
UTG+1: $8.20 (41 bb)
Hero (UTG+2): $18.85 (94.3 bb)
MP1: $9.70 (48.5 bb)
MP2: $5.19 (26 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with 9 9
UTG+1 folds, Hero raises to $0.60, 3 folds, CO calls $0.60, 3 folds


Villain is a 15/11 reg.  Flatting my EP open puts his range squarely on pocket pairs 22-TT.

Flop: ($1.50) 5 J J (2 players)
Hero bets $1, CO calls $1


Thinking villain won't be afraid of this flop, and I'm not going to be either.  My bet gets value from 66-88, maybe even 22-44, and I'm losing to TT and 55 only.  No way he has a jack or QQ-AA in his range.  A pure value bet.

Turn: ($3.50) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $2.34, CO calls $2.34

Queen doesn't scare me - same concept applies as the flop.  One additional bonus of a queen is that I can use it to get folds from TT, as it's a great double barrel card. If villain knows it's a good double barrel card, then it increases the value of my bet against 22-44 and 66-88 even more.

River: ($8.18) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $3.55, CO calls $3.55

Ok, I know exactly where I am in this hand.  Time to bet the correct amount to get called from all these small pairs.  I get a call and I'm pretty sure I'm good, unless he flips over TT.

Results: $15.28 pot ($0.76 rake)
Final Board: 5 J J Q 4
CO showed 5 5 and won $14.52 ($7.03 net)
Hero showed 9 9 and lost (-$7.49 net)

Funny that he never raised his flopped full house.  He was playing scared like I usually do!  This time, I didn't play scared, and got smoked for it.  Couple this hand with going 1 for 2 with pocket kings, and we're back to losing online.