Tuesday, December 9, 2008

a reward for trying something different - out in one hand

Listening to a pokercast this morning, someone suggested limping in early with AK. Sure enough, first hand of a 9 man tonight, under the gun, AKo. I limp.

A bad player, still in early position, minraises me. There are 2 additional callers. I call as well.

Flop Kc Ts 6c. Blind bets. He's an awful player. I raise big, putting half my stack in. Yup, I'm going all the way with top pair. If he's got a set, well that'll be a fun story to tell. He has two moves at this point, fold or shove. He does neither, he calls.

Turn comes 5c. He shoves. His shove is only half the pot. I call all-in.

He's got K5 suited for 2 pair, and I'm gone in one hand. King-ffffing-five suited.

Everything worked to perfection - got a bad player into the hand, and pot committed with a 90% chance to win. Then he hit his 3 out draw on the turn. A nice reward for a perfectly played hand.

Tourney 2 I played to the bubble, got someone to shove into me as a 70% favorite (A5 vs 66), lost that one too. Then I made two correct ICM raises in a row with no chips left, was dominated both times. Got lucky and chopped the first, no luck the second.

So when I'm a favorite, I lose, and when I'm a dog, I chop or lose. Got that? It's a miracle my ROI is positive at all with this luck.

Over the long haul, I'm basically even money for the last 100 tourneys. That's not very good.

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