Sunday, April 12, 2009

go with your read.

Big blind is weak. We are about 50 hands in. His stats are running around 57/3 - meaning he's in way too many pots, and almost never raising them.

He bets every flop, but his bet size is either a minbet, meaning he has nothing, or a half pot bet, meaning he has something, or a pot size bet, meaning he likes his hand. I've seen 3 minbet/folds so far.

Full Tilt Poker, $20 + $2 NL Hold'em Sit n' Go, 50/100 Blinds, 5 Players - Hand History Converter
CO: 2,860
Hero (BTN): 1,560
SB: 2,215
BB: 5,295
UTG: 1,570

Pre-Flop: (150) 6 6 dealt to Hero (BTN)
2 folds, Hero raises to 250, SB folds, BB calls 150
standard 2.5x raise, he calls.

Flop: (550) 9 2 5 (2 Players)
BB bets 100,
Don't love the overcard nine, but I'm pretty sure I'm ahead here, because
1) Not many nines in his calling range (except Ace-9, he is a very bad player).
2) his minbet. 3 times already, that has meant nothing.
3) no draws except a gutshot with A-3/A-4. Not even a player this bad would call a raise with 3-4 (right??), and even if he did, I have 2 of his sixes.

Go with your read, dummy.

Hero raises to 1,310 and is All-In, BB folds

Results: 750 Pot
Hero mucked 6 6 and WON 750 (+400 NET)

Ended up bubbling this tourney. I was victimized by a either really lucky or really good ICM caller - I shoved from the small blind with 68o, into what looked like a reasonable, tight, winning player. I figured even if he has AK, I still have a 1 in 3 chance with my 2 live cards. My assumptions went out the window when he called - with Ace 8. I even got my 8 on the flop but it did me no good.

For the record, my push with 68o was ok (assuming a tight to average calling range), his call with A8 is ok, too - but only if he can put me on an extremely wide shoving range (over 30%). As it turns out, I was shoving super-wide, so his call was profitable and correct, but I'm not sure how he knew that.

He knew more about me than I did about him. Or I just got unlucky.

1 comment:

Memphis MOJO said...

It's interesting that even though the BB was weak and telegraphed his hand, at the point you played the hand you showed, his stack was 5,295!

Do you remember if he finished in the money?