Sunday, June 7, 2009

f-in joke

bad beats - they happen. 3 hands where you're ahead in one game against no wins? C'mon.

AK vs. AQ. Played beautifully, by the way. The button raised. The small blind shoved all in. I shoved over him with AK. The button folded and the SB had AQ. Great read of the situation, 3 outs to knock someone out and take my current chip lead into a commanding situation. Didn't happen.

A3 vs. JQ. Not really a bad beat - but a 3-2 favorite. Queen on the turn. (by then a 3-1 favorite)

My favorite - I shove with A2. Super shortie calls all-in - with 2-4o. Flop 44J.

Now I'm the super shortie. I call all-in with 2 BB and JQ. The button has 55. Ok, I'm behind, but it's a regular old race - if I can just hit one card...

5 on the flop. And on the river, to knock me out.

Quad fuckin fives??!?

So, a 3-1 favorite, a 3-2 favorite, 3-1 favorite - lost em all. Then I lost to quads for the railer. Christ.


Forrest Gump said...

Ask yourself this Matt - over the past year or more of tournaments would you say you've been generally lucky or unlucky? Are you maybe focusing on one little section of the graph where you've dipped significantly under expectation, which is in reality a big exception to overall trend of your profit/loss results?


matt tag said...

my luck (at least my all-in luck) looks decidedly average over the long haul, according to a little graph program that I have that reads the pokertracker 3 database.

I have a definite, 150BB luck downswing in recent weeks, though (since May 1).

I know I'm just whining when I complain about localized luck swings, but the blog is the best place to do it (I realize nobody wants to hear this crap directly).

Forrest Gump said...

Absolutely its worth writing about - it's the ups and downs of this game which can really test your mental fortitude. On my recent downswing i flopped sets on consecutive hands and got snapped off in both - my head was about to explode. My point was, realistically over hundreds of tournaments and thousands of decisions, its almost impossible to deviate any great distance from the expectation curve over the long term.