Monday, November 23, 2009

forced stop-loss, and hand review,.

Only got in 187 hands tonight - daughter got a virus on her computer about 10 seconds after she downloaded "these cool themes for facebook", and it started knocking out every running program and spitting up porn websites. Greaaaat.

Probably just as well - I got unlucky to the tune of 83 big blinds in those 187 hands. KK all in vs. 77 and Q8s would have been a nice triple up - nope, 77 hit his set. Someone called my shove semi-bluff with AcTc on a 457 rainbow board. I had 88 for the weak overpair and a gutshot - she had 6 outs and hit. 2 hands where I'm a 3-1 favorite and lose both. I did manage a win with KK vs. AK, though, so one of three all-ins on the night held to form.

3 all-ins as a favorite - a good indicator that I'm still playing well. For more proof, I checked all my all-ins this month where the expected amount won or lost was at least ten BB - I've got 23 positive vs. 14 negative. So I'm getting my money in in good much more often than bad.

To review even further, I went over the top 10 negatives (in terms of equity) to see what mistakes I've been making:

1. AKo. Raise flop, get a caller. Hit TPTK, get it in on turn with a [Ac 2c 8d 4c] board. Could be dead to a flush, but villain is donkey and I still expect value here. He had called my raise with 35o and had the straight. Ok then. Keep calling raises with 35o and winning 30 BB, donkey - that'll work.

2. AJo raised (punishing limpers), hit a J32 rainbow board. Get it in TPTK, against a set of threes. This is fine - pocket threes also won't make long term money calling a raise in a capped game.

3. AK vs. K6, he hit two pair on the flop. Played correctly, unlucky that he hit 2 pair.

4. A9o - raised from button, blind defends. [Ac Qd 8d] board. He leads out, I raise, he calls. 8 pairs on the turn, we get it in, he had K8 and tripped up. More luck. I was ahead preflop and outflopped him - he drew out.

5. My KQ vs his KK. Got it in bad here, no way to sugarcoat this one. Whoopsie.

6. JJ vs. QQ. Cooler. It happens. Got it in bad, but tough to fold JJ in a 30 BB game (would need to review the player's stats to see if maybe he was tight enough to fold).

7. JT, limped behind limpers, hit top pair/crappy kicker on a normal board (flush draw, but only a baby straight draw), got it in vs. slowplayed aces. I hate the way I played this hand - should have either folded the flop or tried to punish limpers (would have probably found out I was against aces preflop. if he slowplays and just calls, I probably slow down myself in a raised pot). Anyway, donkey play by me, I deserved to get stacked.

8. My own aces, slowplayed from the small blind, vs. Tony with early position limp and an aggro-donkey in the big, who I was trying to trap. Tony hit a set of fours on me. Screwed this one up, too. I very rarely slowplay aces, and I got cute this time, and it cost me.

9. I three-bet a supper-aggro with KQo, he calls. Flop is QQJ, I check thinking he'll bet, but he doesn't. Turn is a 7, we get it in, he had 77. Sucks to lose this one, but I played it right - I gave an aggressive player a free card and a chance to bluff me with 2 outs to win, and he hit one. That's a long term good play.

10. Mr. Pietzak 5 outs me - I raise A8 from the button, he defends with K9 - I bet pot when I hit my ace, he calls with bottom pair and hits two pair on the turn. Good play again until the turn.

It seems like I'm getting into many these hands with the best of it and I'm getting drawn out on. If someone played this exact same way in a full buy-in game, they would lose a ton of money - you can't defend top pair to the death for 100 big blinds. But for 30 blinds, it's fine.

Sorry if this looks like a bad beat post - it really wasn't meant to be - I think it's important to occasionally review my hands and look for problems, especially this month since my winrate has crept pretty low (1.26 BB/100 hands in 3700 hands).

Note that I wasn't truly looking for opponent suckouts/bad beats - to do that, I would check for hands with high expected equity when the money went in, but then lost. In all of the cases above, I got my money in bad for some reason or another, and I'm trying to figure out why. In many cases, I'm getting in with a top/top type hand and the people who are ahead have gotten that way by playing a hand that was unprofitable to do so, but hit this time (like calling a flop bet when way behind but then hitting a 5 outer on the turn). So when I get my money in bad, I'm probably ahead of the range of hands they might have, but they happen to have hands at the top of that range.

1 comment:

Memphis MOJO said...

Sorry about the virus. Hope she get is disinfected.