Saturday, March 13, 2010

Edit from Thursday - nut flush vs. boat hand

I reviewed my opponent's hand range from our big hand Thursday night (review here). I was pretty tired and I missed some hands. I missed ace king (hard to fold trip kings/top kicker), and decided to include all KQ in his range, not just KQh. Finally, I added queen-ten with the queen of hearts - who has a straight draw and the second nut flush draw. I added this last hand as being only half as likely as the others, since it might not be a hand this player raises preflop.

My equity vs. this range is 59.19%. If I take that as an accurate representation of his range, then going to the wall with my nut flush is fine, and folding is a big mistake.


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