Wednesday, May 12, 2010

what level are you thinking at?

My HUD is temporarily broken on my primary site right now (where I get rakeback), so I went back to Full Tilt for some Rush Poker. Great early session = 140BB won.

Then I took a phone call and stopped for a half hour or so. When I got off the phone, I debated between leaving things with a healthy win and doing something else for the night, or hopping back in. Some say that when you're playing well and "feeling it", shutting down an early win might be limiting your win rate.

I say that's hooey. Past performance doesn't predict the future, right? My second session might go as well as the first, or horribly, or somewhere in between.

This night was a poor second session. Nothing crazy, just guys hitting two pair on me, or taking a guess on a guy not having an ace, but having one. I bailed before it got too out of hand, and still booked an 80 BB win for the day.

Here was a hand I might have made a mistake on - it just depends on what level you think the villain is thinking at.

Dont have a cow, heres your converted hand
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em $0.10/$0.25 - 9 players

CO: $19.76
Button: $131.11
SB: $25.00 (Hero)
BB: $47.66
UTG: $29.16
UTG+1: $21.68
MP: $27.81
MP2: $39.53
HJ: $32.57

Preflop: ($0.35) Hero is SB with (9 players)
6 folds, Button raises to $0.75,

Button has a big stack. I only have 29 hands on him, his stats are 10/10. Attempt to steal 1 out of 2. Not enough hands to really decide anything. But if he's decent, then he's stealing light, and I'm going to reraise AK, for value:

Hero raises to $3
, BB folds, Button raises to $9.25,

Ok, he's ready to play for stacks now, or he's bluffing. In Rush Poker, stealing blinds is everything, and I have noticed that defending light is common. I folded to 5 or 6 3bets from the blinds in 300 hands - I might do that only once or twice at a normal table in the same amount of time. The counter to the light 3 bet is the light 4-bet of course. So I have to decide if he thinks I'm 3 betting light, in which case he's 4-betting light (including AQ/AJ/AT in his range, say), or 4-betting for value with a big hand.

I'm not in horrible shape either way, of course, even against kings I've got a bit of equity (30%). I'm dead to aces, but racing everything else. If he's 4-betting light, including all pairs 77 and higher, along with AK, AQ, AJ, and KQ, then I have 55% equity and a decent favorite. If he's only making this raise with JJ+ and AK, then I'm in more trouble, about a 60-40 dog.

What to do, what to do? Finally, I take a look at his raise size - three times my bet. From my (limited) study, I have learned that light 4-betting is usually best done as either a minraise, or a shove. Both are effective for different reasons - the shove has maximum fold equity of course, and the minraise usually gives you room to fold to a 5-bet shove. This raise was neither - I may have taken a shove or a minraise to be more bluffy in nature, but this medium size 4bet commits us to the pot if I call.

That was my final tipping point to think he's more likely to be raising with a big hand. Even if I was racing QQ 57-43%, why race for a buy-in?

Hero folds
Button won $6.25

Will never know if it was the right decision, but I felt like I took all the best information I had at the time, processed it quickly, and came to a reasonable conclusion.

1 comment:

The Poker Meister said...

Crappy. Plain crappy. I think you're spot on where it depends on what level he's thinking and 30-some-odd hands can't determine that. In the 30 hands, what is his steal %? I'm sure he's been a steal position at least once.

Point is (which you didn't state in the post): If he's stealing and is aware of a re-steal, he could be re-re-stealing. At $25NL, though, this situation is fairly unlikely. I think 4 bets at 25nl are heavily weighted towards QQ+ and AK. As played, I think I fold as well; you're behind AA & KK, 50/50 with QQ and splitting (assuming AKo) AK. Therefore, you're behind most of a generic 25NL player's 4bet range. Fold.