Tuesday, June 8, 2010

crazy one - 21 outs!

beware the feral cow packs. they hunger.
Cereus No Limit Hold'em $0.10/$0.25 - 6 players

Button: $40.85
SB: $33.57 (Hero)
BB: $19.81
UTG: $25.00
UTG+1: $35.18
CO: $31.22

Preflop: ($0.35) Hero is SB with (6 players)
3 folds, Button raises to $0.75, Hero raises to $2.70, BB folds, Button calls $1.95
Guy was 32% steal, fold to 3bet of 83%. I hadn't 3bet yet. Good spot for it.

Flop: ($5.65) (2 players)
Hero bets $3, Button calls $3
Didn't really expect this guy to fold to this cbet - his fold to cbet was a minuscule 29% (2 out of 7). He's calling with everything!

Turn: ($11.65) (2 players)
Hero bets $11, Button raises to $35.15 and is all-in, Hero calls $16.87 and is all-in
Great card for me = a flush possibility, and an open ended straight draw. Plus, I think about this guy's tiny fold to cbet percentage, and figure his range is wide here. I decide to go for it. I bet pot one more time to scare him off, as a semibluff. It doesn't work, whoops. But I've got 3-1 odds now, so I only have to be good 25% of the time - not sure if I have 15 outs (he could have a flush already, or a draw to a higher flush), but if I do, this makes this a correct call!

River: ($74.67) (2 players)

Button showed , One pair, fours(ace kicker)
Hero showed , One pair, fours
Button won $64.39
(Rake: $3)

Total craziness - this dude put me all in with ace high! This means my 6 pair outs were good as well, making this an easily correct call, all-in, with king high and a big draw.

I like this play overall, even though it didn't work out. Every decision was a solid one at the time.
That 29% fold to flop bet was the key to me. Sample sizes were small (I only had 104 hands on him), but my observation was that this guy just didn't fold once he was in a pot. And I was right - he had ace high! My turn bet was made thoughtfully, figuring a large fold percentage based on his range. Maybe this is all selective reinforcement - if he flips over pocket aces with the Ace of hearts there, I feel pretty dumb, but we're always supposed to be thinking about ranges, ranges, ranges, and I felt like I was doing that.

This hand stacked me, as well as a second hand that I played very bad - I decided top pair KQ was good against a tight, unaggressive player - he had a set, and I had no need to go to the wall against this player when there were so many worse players at the table. But I crawled back with some big hands of my own and won 21 BB on the night. Played very well overall (not the KQ, ooo-fa).


The Poker Meister said...

SH*T happens. Don't sweat the small stuff. I've been running ranges ranges ranges for the last month and a half - and find that all of my opponents are at the very top of their ranges ALL OF THE TIME. Only recently am I starting to "trust" the cards.

matt tag said...

that was March for me. I never lost with so many full houses...