Monday, October 25, 2010

What would you do? Set on river but 4 card straight vs. halfstack

Feral Cow Poker
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em $0.05/$0.10 - 9 players

BB: $10.81
UTG: $7.50
UTG+1: $18.35
MP: $1.01
MP2: $6.38 12/6/2.0 after 34 hands.
HJ: $10.11 (Hero)
CO: $8.28
Button: $10.35
SB: $35.65

Preflop: ($0.15) Hero is HJ with (9 players)
3 folds, MP2 raises to $0.35, Hero calls $0.35, 4 folds

Flop: ($0.85) (2 players)
MP2 bets $0.40, Hero calls $0.40
Float the half pot bet, villain has CBet 1 time out of 1 opportunity

Turn: ($1.65) (2 players)
MP2 bets $0.80, Hero calls $0.80
The eight gives me equity, and the bet is small. I probably fold to a bigger bet.

River: ($3.25) (2 players)

Well, I hit my set, but any jack beats me. Do I play for a small pot or a big one? (Villain has 4.83 back).

What would you do?

MP2 checks, Hero bets $5, MP2 calls $4.83, and is all in

I went for the big pot. I didn't know for sure (don't have the ranges memorized yet), but I felt like a 6% opening range didn't have many jacks in it. It turns out that JJ and AJs are in there, but not AJo or any KJ. Of course, even if I knew this for sure, I'm still riding the edge (I guess you always are) - villain could be taking a flyer on KJs or JTs or whatever. But we use our HUDs to get probable hand ranges, and then we act on them.

MP2 mucked
Hero showed , and won ($12.05) with three of a kind, Tens
Hero won $12.05
(Rake: $0.86)

It worked out for me - villain couldn't let go of top pair. Post-hand analysis says I'm a 3:1 favorite vs. villain's tight range - confirming my on-the-fly guess.


billy said...

nice write up

Brian said...

Just curious why are you calling a 12/6 OTF and OTT??

matt tag said...

6% is tight but he doesn't always have a hand here (ATs/AJs/AK missed), and some of his pairs are under the queen.

I floated the turn because I picked up equity with a gutshot.

You are correct that the hand deserves some FlopZilla-ing to see how strong his range is on flop and turn.

Brian said...

Actually misread the hand originally. Thought there were 2 overs on the board. I guess peeling the flop with 1 over is fine. And you do pick up equity on turn. I assume you are folding a river brick?

matt tag said...

probably, yes.