Dialing up the right number

beware the feral cow packs. they hunger.
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em $0.10/$0.25 - 9 players

SB: $13.42
Villain is a blind stealing TAG 16/12. 50% BTN steal, 29% CO steal, 46% SB Steal, 25% fold 3bet (1 out of 4). 9.0 aggression factor. Seems decent except for not playing a full stack.

BB: $29.00 (Hero)

Preflop: ($0.35) Hero is BB with (9 players)
7 folds, SB raises to $0.75, Hero raises to $2.50, SB calls $1.75
You could argue for either calling here or raising. Raising folds out all of the garbage that a 46% thief is raising with, but most of that garbage has 30% equity vs your unpaired big slick, so it's not a bad result to make him give up that equity to you. He doesn't look like he likes to fold to 3bets though - only 1 time out of 4, so it seems like I can raise for value.

Flop: ($5.00) (2 players)
Blind vs. blind, trips/TK, backdoor hearts, 3bet pot vs a shortstack. Uh, yeah, I'm not folding this hand. He gets all my money if he's got AJ or pocket jacks, yay for him. If a heart comes on the turn, I'll be semibluffing all-in, yay for him again. Any other card might give him the Ax boat since all aces are in his preflop raising range (though maybe not his 3bet calling range).

Since stacks are short, I can check a street here for deception. I'm almost certainly way ahead, and villain is drawing to 2-3 outs for almost all of his holdings (except hearts).

SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($5.00) (2 players)
SB checks,
We got our brick turn. Ok, I want to bet something here. I need this bet to look like a weak stab. If he's got a worse ace and has been trying to checkraise, he'll pounce. If he's got nothing, or maybe a little something (KJ) he may decide he's good. His short stack does him no favors here in this 3bet pot. If he calls, he'll have less than a pot sized bet left on the river, and he'll be out of position. He may decide that the only way to apply pressure is right now, if his read is that I'm weak. I need to give him that read. Just a shade over half pot sounds about right...

Hero bets $2.80,

SB raises to $10.92, and is all in, Hero calls $8.12
Alright, that worked out well.

River: ($26.84) (2 players)

SB showed , and lost with a pair of Aces
Hero showed , and won ($25.50) with three of a kind, Aces
Hero won $25.50

Gutshot for him - a ten on the turn or river would have doubled him up. I got him to shove his stack in as a 9:1 dog, and I held up (always nice) for a 60 BB profit. This was the last the blind stealer played this evening.