Friday, September 23, 2011

All we have to do now, Is take these lies, and make them true somehow -George Michael, "Freedom"

Thursday night cash game takes off for once with 12 players. We play 2 tables for awhile until a couple bustos, then back to a big nine man table. I've been nitting it up for the most part, my usual M.O., until Mr. Pietzak limps under the gun and Tony raises to $4. I'm in late-ish position, and it feels like a good cold 3bet spot. It will look super-strong. Tony punishes pretty wide, Mr. Pietzak will definitely fold his 74o junk, and I can cbet lots of flops and take it down postflop with position, if we get that far.

Now for the simple matter of checking my cards to see if they feel like cooperating with my carefully thought-out plan. Seven-Deuce, both spades. Oh, well, you can't win'em all.

I re-raise to $13.

Angel cold-calls the $13 from a blind. Angel's kind of an aggro-donk - he plays way too many hands, and takes his pairs too far. He also shows calling-station tendencies postflop, but gets away with it because he bluffs more than average. Tony takes a second when it comes back to him to do the mental math, then throws in his extra $9. Medium pocket pair for him. He wouldn't get stuck with an AJ/KQ type hand here. He wouldn't trap with aces or kings - with me showing so much strength. He's been limping behind with his small pairs and connectors. I've got him firmly on 77-TT. Players with JJ or QQ don't worry about pot odds when they call a three bet in my experience - they simply call, feeling it's too strong a hand to fold. Lord knows what Angel has, but it doesn't matter too much. I tried my move and it didn't quite work out. That's cool. I will gladly check/fold most flops here, as I don't really like to bluff into two players with nothing.

The dealer runs it out. Ace of spades, Jack of spades, Deuce of clubs.

Bottom pair, Flush draw. Pretty good flop for a bluff. I've got 14 outs to beat a pair, and only one of the two players can have an ace in my mind, since I'm so sure of Tony's range.

They both check to me. Change of plans - I have enough equity to keep the foot on the gas. I bet $20 into $40.

Angel thinks for a bit, then announces "I'm all in". Whoops. Not quite what I expected. Tony quickly folds as Angel counts his remaining stack. He's got only $17 back, having started with a short-ish stack.

My seven deuce soooted has flopped too strong to fold now. The pot is $97 right now, I have to call $17. 5.7:1 odds, meaning I only have to win 15% of the time to make this a profitable call. If Angel flipped over pocket Aces or Jacks right now for a set, it would still be profitable long-term to call him and try to spike a flush on him. If he's got a single pair, my chances are even better because I can hit two pair or trips on him.

I let out a single "HA" at the absurdity of the situation and announce confidently that I call. Angel looks at my seven-deuce soooted as I flip them over and says "What the fuck?", and then looks back at the board. He sees the bushel-basket of turn and river he has to dodge as he reveals ace-king. 14 cards in all he has to avoid - 3 sevens, 2 deuces, or 9 spades. As the cards lie, I'm a 50.101% favorite to his 49.899%. A true coinflip, and getting an enormous overlay from the pot.

We run out the turn and river. I don't improve. I also don't care. I played this hand very well.

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