Saturday, July 21, 2012

combo counting

So last night I isolate a weak tight limper with queen-ten offsuit. My raise works and we get heads up.

Flop is Queen-Queen-Six. ("Hellooooo, Frisco!"). My opponent checks and I check behind - I don't think he has much here, I my best hope is probably winning 2 streets of value by checking flop and betting turn and river.

Turn is an ace. My opponent checks, and I make a healthy bet of $7 into the $8 pot. He doubles my bet with a checkraise.

So, he's got the case queen, huh? How do I get myself in this wretched situations? I start putting him on a range. He's not super loose, so I can give him too many crappy kickers to go along with his queen. King-Queen and Jack-Queen beat me, and there are 4 combos of each of these available. I can rule out ace-queen - too strong a hand for this player to open limp. Would he play queen-nine, queen-eight, etc? I decide he would limp with these two hands only if they were suited. Since there's only one queen left in the deck, there's only one combo each of queen-nine and queen-eight.

This is as far down the kicker trail as I'm willing to go with this player - I haven't seen him play junk like queen-five suited yet.

So we're losing to eight hands and beating 2. I've got a min-checkraise to call. I decide the combination of having position, some outs to a win, some further outs to a chop (board pairing again), and the remote possibility that he was bluffing, to make this worth a call.

The river gives no help, and my opponent bets half the pot. I have 2:1 odds, and need to be correct to call 1/3 of the time. My combos say I'm good 2 in 10, so I'm nowhere near good yet. Add in a few bluff combos maybe? I could see this playing bluffing the turn, but I'm not sure if he follows it up with a bluff on the river after I call.

I can't conceive of a way that I'm good often enough to call the bet. I fold.

After the game is over, I ask him about his kicker. He says he had queen-five suited. A surprise to me (if true) - I've never seen him play hands of that nature. But I still like my fold given the information available to me. I think a few tough folds serve me better in the long run than "I haz trips - all in".

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