Saturday, August 11, 2012


Going to work out the equity of my aces-getting-cracked hand from last night.

3 limps to me in the Friday night cash game, when I take a peek at my cards and see Ace of spades, Ace of diamonds staring back at me.

I make it $4 and get 2 callers. Flop is King-o-Spades, Jack-o-Spades, and a brick (maybe a red 4). I bet 11 into the 13.5 pot to make the flush draw call incorrect. One player calls. The pot is now $35.5

Turn isn't a great card - the queen of spades. Plenty of two pairs just caught me, and the flush draws of course. And Ace-ten. I take a look at my opponents stack before deciding on my play. He started short and has only $36 back. If I bet half of that $36 and get shoved on, I will need to call $18 to win $89.5, for a nearly 5:1 pot-odds call. Do I want to commit myself that way now?

If he shoves, I will put him on two pair, a made flush, a set, AT, and also a pair with a flush draw (say King-Ten with the ten of spades. Seems like a weak hand but this player doesn't like to fold preflop). I especially think he doesn't fold with the ten of spades, giving him a royal flush redraw (which he can't hit because I have the aces of spades).

Of all the hands he could have, I would have a staggering 19 outs vs. two pair, 14 vs a set, 11 vs. a straight (some are chop outs), 7 vs. a flush, and I'm actually ahead of top pair+flush draw combos.

I would have to weigh all likelihood of each of these combos for a proper weighting, which I can't do at the table. Just averaging the outs when behind gives me around 13 outs on average, which I would weight downward because he's much more likely to shove with a made flush than with 2 pair/set on a 3 spade board. So 10 outs roughly when behind, and at least some chance that I'm ahead, with a pot sized bet left in our stacks.

Time to commit. I bet 18, he defiantly puts his stack in. I take a few seconds to re-do my mental math, then I make the call. He shows 67 of spades for the made flush. I have 7 outs that don't get there.

No comments: