MP3: $22.62 (113.1 bb)
CO: $22.48 (112.4 bb)
BTN: $18.35 (91.8 bb)
SB: $26.41 (132 bb)
BB: $20 (100 bb)
UTG+1: $8.20 (41 bb)
Hero (UTG+2): $18.85 (94.3 bb)
MP1: $9.70 (48.5 bb)
MP2: $5.19 (26 bb)
Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with 9
9
UTG+1 folds, Hero raises to $0.60, 3 folds, CO calls $0.60, 3 folds
Villain is a 15/11 reg. Flatting my EP open puts his range squarely on pocket pairs 22-TT.
Flop: ($1.50) 5
J J
(2 players)Hero bets $1, CO calls $1
Thinking villain won't be afraid of this flop, and I'm not going to be either. My bet gets value from 66-88, maybe even 22-44, and I'm losing to TT and 55 only. No way he has a jack or QQ-AA in his range. A pure value bet.
Turn: ($3.50) Q
(2 players)Hero bets $2.34, CO calls $2.34
Queen doesn't scare me - same concept applies as the flop. One additional bonus of a queen is that I can use it to get folds from TT, as it's a great double barrel card. If villain knows it's a good double barrel card, then it increases the value of my bet against 22-44 and 66-88 even more.
River: ($8.18) 4
(2 players)Hero bets $3.55, CO calls $3.55
Ok, I know exactly where I am in this hand. Time to bet the correct amount to get called from all these small pairs. I get a call and I'm pretty sure I'm good, unless he flips over TT.
Results: $15.28 pot ($0.76 rake)
Final Board: 5
J J Q 4 CO showed 5
5 and won $14.52 ($7.03 net)Hero showed 9
9 and lost (-$7.49 net)Funny that he never raised his flopped full house. He was playing scared like I usually do! This time, I didn't play scared, and got smoked for it. Couple this hand with going 1 for 2 with pocket kings, and we're back to losing online.
3 comments:
I was waiting for the river for him to pop you up with his AJ suited. Someone I've got pegged as playing a tightish range who then flat calls me on the flop and turn is going to give me pause.
Someone with a tiny 3% differential between VPIP and PFR is almost never cold calling easily-dominated aces like AJ, especially when my PFR from early position is something like 6%. 3% is too small to account for all the setmining pairs AND suited aces - (22-TT) is almost 5% by itself. This is how I am able to remove any J from his range.
You have me there, Matt, for I am not a numbers guy. However, if I have position and have AJ suited, I'm seeing a flop. Unsuited is another matter, for as you say, an early position raise sends a certain message, especially coming from a guy who he might very well recognize as a strong, careful player. I guess it's hard to believe that someone is tighter than I am.
I understand that having the numbers in front of you as you play helps make certain decisions and determinations. It's that "almost never" that I worry about, and as I've read in your accounts from running negative online this year, it's bitten you in the butt more often than you'd prefer. Yes, it might be variance. In this case, however, if your numbers give you a read on the guy that says he's only beating you with TT and he keeps calling, then what?
Thanks for responding to my comment. For the record, I miss playing with you at PAO.
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