Friday, October 3, 2008

hand opinion wanted

I wanted to ask anyone out there's opinion on a hand from last night.

I was getting frustrated b/c of bad cards for over an hour, so that may have played a part in what looks like a weak decision, but I think in the end it was OK.

This is a .5/$1 live nolimit game. I currently only have $24 on the table (my first buyin is dwindling down after being up $12 or so). I had AQ in relatively late position. I make the standard table raise, which is $4. The player to my left, still in position, calls my raise. This player loves to play low cards and steal flops when no paint shows up from tight players like myself. Then, the small blind shoves his last $17 into the pot.

The small blind is a decent player - I don't think this is a move. I put him on AJ-AK, maybe 88-AA for pairs. My best guess is a pair.

While I'm thinking about calling, the guy in between says "I hope someone has a big pair, I've got the perfect hand for bringing down a big pair". In his language, based on the way he plays, I read this to be suited connectors.

So here goes the math in my head. I take a stab and guess the shover guy has a pair under my AQ. Sure he could have QQ/KK/AA, but I'm going to discount that for now. If this is true, then I'm racing with this guy, probably 45% to win the hand. But my read on the second guy is that he's got some kind of suited connector, say 89 or 9T. If those reads are correct, then 2 things are also true:

1. If I hit my Ace or Queen, not only am I beating one guy, but I'm beating both of them.
2. Their hands might interfere with each other some. Part of Mr. 89's value is hitting a straight, and a medium pair might be holding 2 of his outs.

I decide to not only call, but shove the rest of my money in too. I know this isn't going to shut the middle guy out, it's only $7 more, but I figure this is just like a race against a pair except I'll be winning more than the one guy's money if I can hit my overcards...

Before I give the results, if anyone wants to weigh in on my logic, feel free.

1 comment:

bastinptc said...

With the player who has gone all-in, you're about 2 to 1, correct? The additional $7 may be enough to have the guy to your left fold, although it doesn't sound like it.

Your willingness to race with AQ sounds more like a go-big-or-go-home move. Win and you stick around, happy to have made some money back; lose and go home, crack a beer and watch the tube a bit before bed.