Sunday, November 30, 2008

no doubting it now...

...I'm playing really badly right now. Last night was the spite call, tonight was this...

2 limpers to me in the big blind. I have KT and don't feel like getting frisky. I check.

Flop comes TQK. Two pair for me. I'm going to play this fast early, but slow down and play for a small pot if I get resistance. I bet the pot and get a caller. AJ? Ouch. Better two pair? Maybe. Set? Maybe.

Turn comes another Queen. I could be behind trips now, but I still have two pair. I bet, smaller this time. He calls again.

River comes a 7h. I bet defensively, 200 into 800. I get a call. He shows AK and I think "sweet, I win with my two pair", but the chips go the villain's way. Why? I had two pair, he had one pair. No, idiot - we both had two pair - Kings and Queens, and he outkicked me. The second queen counterfeited my two pair, and I didn't see it.

I'm not sure I would have played any differently, I certainly wouldn't have won the hand, but I didn't read the board properly. I missed the counterfeit completely as it happened. Not good at all.

The tourney ended, strangely enough, much like my live tourney did last weekend. A player with stats of 10/2 limped in early position. I had 7 BB in the small blind with 8T - I felt like he was weak and I had enough fold equity, and has his dead money in the pot. I shoved and he called - he had QQ and I was crushed.

Taking a second look at his stats - I saw that he was limping and almost never raising, but again I didn't read the stats properly. He's playing
only 10% of the hands total. Either his cards suck (like mine lately) or he's waiting for really good hands. Do I have any fold equity vs. that kind of player? Nope. Another bad mistake.

Second tourney of the night, I take a pass on the first 17 hands since they all suck - in hand 18 I get TT and raise it up 3x. Negative ROI player calls me. Flop comes A 6 2 and I bet it out and get raised, BIG. Ok, sparky, wanna spite call again and see this donk who called me with A2 or 22, or is he shoving with 99 and I've got him crushed? No way to know. I give it up and am down below 1000 after playing one hand.

That tourney ends in an equally unwinnable situation - I'm on the bubble with 800 chips, everyone else has over 3100. I need two doubleups just to get in the game (unless one player knocks another out). Of course, my cards aren't very good, and I have zero fold equity. I win a couple blinds but my final push with K3 gets called by the small blind, who of course has K9, killing my top card and any chance I have without a miracle suckout. ICM says it's a good push, so I got that going for me, but the suckout doesn't come and I bubble.

My "final" report of November last night was premature since I squeezed in two tourneys tonight. I should have taken a pass and let myself stay in the black for the month. The two losses drag my ROI on the month back below the water line - negative 7.44%. 23 tourneys represents the least I've played in a month since starting, and sample sizes still apply, as always, but the last two online months have not been good to me. And now I'm making mistakes along with the bad runs of cards.

Am I going backwards? I sure would hate to end up sucking at this game, because I really love playing it...

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