Monday, April 20, 2009

conflicting reports

getting close to that time, under ten big blinds in the SNG. Will be shoving soon if something doesn't change - but my stack is still big enough to 3 bet all in if the right situation presents itself.

I get ATo in the big - the best hand I've had in awhile. The button raises me to 4.5x. Do I shove over him? Let's see the evidence:

His stats are 27/15: very aggressive. I've seen him 3-bet numerous times as well (too often to have a monster every time).

I saw him raise a flop bet, then fold to a reraise.

4.5x bet size is awfully big - does that mean he likes his hand and wants to build a pot, or he doesn't like it and doesn't want a call?

He's on the button - raising range is very wide.

Sharkscope says he's bad.

My stats are tight, but I've been active lately.

Well, I've seen him bet/fold, he's bad, and aggressive, so I figure I might even have the best hand. I shove it in. He calls with AKo and buh-bye. Oops.

Postgame analysis - ATo vs. top 15% of hands is basically a coin flip - 47% to win. Add in some fold equity and I think this is ok.

The 4.5x raise size was the thing that threw me the most, I think. Some players will do this with 77 because they're scared to death to play it postflop, others will do it with big hands hoping it looks like a steal. I guess I misread the intent.


Forrest Gump said...

True, i see players do this with small/mid pairs cos they realize (somewhat correctly) it will be tricky post flop. I also see AK played the same though as more often than not you miss...

In these end game, iffy push-fold spots I ask myself how tough are the guys I'm left with. Sometimes all the donks have busted early and there's little edge when the blinds are starting to over-run me, so its an easy push with AT. Other times, if the table seems soft I'll figure I can find a better spot.

Memphis MOJO said...

Did you consider a stop and go?

matt tag said...

I did not - it would have been a valid option in this case.