Sunday, August 16, 2009

razor thin edges

Ok, studying my PokerTracker database some more. I have calculated that my recent 4 month break even streak can be turned around by either:

1. Turning 2 more tourneys per month into 1st place finishes (from not cashing at all), or
2. Turning 4 second place finishes per month into 1st place finishes.

That's it, really. I'm only playing 50 tourneys per month. If I can turn 2 bubbles into 1st place finishes in a month, that would be winnings of $180, and would turn a break even month into a 16% ROI month. Turning 4 second place finishes into 1st place finishes would be winnings of $144, for a 13% ROI month. I don't have to do both of these things, I only have to do one of them (or a combination, maybe 1 more win and convert 2 seconds to firsts).

Basically, I can eliminate all this whining and moaning with a couple of cashes per month.
So that's the new goal.

The next thing I want to do is study how many chips I'm averaging the moment the bubble breaks and we're three handed. It is my current theory that recently, I am often limping over the finish line with too few chips to compete when the bubble breaks. If this theory is true, then I believe I will have to play much more aggressively on the bubble. This is actually a good thing - it is well-documented and accepted that aggressive bubble play is correct, so there will be lots of documentation and support to help me in this endeavor.

Running this query out of poker tracker will be difficult to run, though - it's going to take some time. I might squeeze it in with some of my "off the table" time coming up this week.

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