Thursday, January 14, 2010

back to normal

I won $1.84 last night, and it felt great.

I'm still down for the month after my awful session on Tuesday, so there's still much to do. But my session last night was much more "normal". Blinds folded to steals, or to c-bets. A few reraises-of-my-blind-steals worked as well. I got stacked once - queens vs. kings, which is perfectly normal, and I stacked one person, flush draw vs. two pair, hit the flush on the turn. Again, poker as it should be.

To remind me that the poker gods were still watching, late in the session, I got myself some pocket aces - first time this session. I quickly scanned the table for the button, which was two spots to my right.

I was in the big blind.

And yes, everyone folded to me and gave me a walk.


Anybody out there who's mathematically inclined, I'd love to see the odds of having your next 3 pocket aces getting dealt from while you're in the big blind, AND having everyone fold to you all three times.

The first part is easy - you have a 1 in 6 chance (on a 6 max table) of being in any spot when you get dealt your hand. The chance of that hand coming in the same spot 3 consecutive times is (1/6)*(1/6)*(1/6), which is 0.463%. Less than one half of one percent.

Getting the "having everyone fold to you" part is much harder - it will involve using those players' VPIPs to get a good estimate.

We're in "astronomically small" territory here, though.

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