Sunday, January 3, 2010

nothing set in stone

I folded AK preflop today.

The guy shown in the image was under the gun. About as tight as you could be. - a 12% VPIP and 11% preflop raise. He raised it up under the gun. I was next to act, with 4 behind me.

I felt that I was behind his under the gun raising range (basically racing pairs 88+, and maybe ahead of AQ only), so I didn't want to 3bet.

Thinking afterwards, I suppose the best play would have been to flat call, and then if someone decided to squeeze, and this guy folded, to call myself, hoping they were squeezing light. That was probably ideal.

But, I was playing it safe and simply folded, thinking I was behind UTG's range, even though I had AK.

They say that no play is ever set in stone. Folding AK preflop is certainly unorthodox, but it might have prevented me from making a big mistake.

I went on to a great session - 12BB/100 hands, 315 hands played.


BLAARGH! said...

Probably a bad fold, sorry to say... 11% is approximately 77+, ATo+, A9s+ and some suited broadways. You're ahead of a ton of his range - approx 59% to win. I'm sure though his UTG range is much smaller if he's that tight, but he could still be raising stuff that you can beat on the flop. You can discount AA and KK a bit since you have one of each. If you are worried about 88-QQ (only a 46% dog btw), flat and evaluate on the flop. You're throwing away value by ditching such a strong hand without a fight. Now if you had AQ or AJ.... that's a different story :)
Congrats on the nice session btw, great winrate.

matt tag said...

I posted this hand on 2+2, and I got berated for 50 posts and then defended playing capped NLHE for another 50, but the basic premise of their arguments was the same as yours, and I agree with it.

BLAARGH! said...

lol - not berating you at all, I'm definitely learning as I go as well... I like wrapping my mind around these things, keeps me thinking about my own game.