folding the best hand.

How long before you start definitively believing your reads?

Got to play in a nice little Sunday live tourney this afternoon. Lots of bad luck early - I tried being aggressive with A7 and 44, and got reraised both times! This isn't a heavy action 3betting table, so I didn't put anyone on a move, and folded both times.

Later on, the player on the button raised up 2 limpers to 1000 chips. I had jacks in the big blind. This guy wasn't ultra-aggressive, and he wasn't playing every one of his buttons- he seemed solid, tight, straightforward. I didn't want to play jacks to the wall, and folding is too weak. I called.

The flop came with an ace and I checked. He bet out, but small - 1200. Why so small? "He didn't hit that ace" was my first thought. "Or.... ", I continued, he now has three aces and is trying to lure someone in". "Or, he doesn't love his kicker".

If he doesn't love his kicker, why would he have raised up limpers? This is a tourney, that's more of a cash game play. The small bet bothers me, but this player hasn't been messing around - I have to give him credit for a hand. I fold. He decides to show - king-queen - he had missed everything. My read was right, and I had folded the best hand. Crap. I shove there and he can't call, obviously, and I win a few orbits worth of time.

Late in the tourney, I raise up king-jack. The small blind defends - he's got a huge stack and is playing very loose. He has knocked people out with 45 and 9To. I decide before seeing the flop that top pair is good enough to go against this guy's range.

Then of course I chicken out. I hit my jack, but that card and the other two are all clubs. I have no club. We both check. The turn is a brick, and no club. He checks and I bet out my top pair. He puts me all in.

Great decision. Did he have the flush the whole time. My read is no - he checked quickly and my read was that he didn't stop and consider for a second what to do. He could have two pair here, I guess (I think 78 is out there), or a pair with a club. I'm not sure, not sure.... so I fold.

He flashes a jack of spades. I ask if he had a club to go with that, he says "yes, a pretty big one". king/jack, queen/jack, or jack ten I guess. I was probably ahead again. He said "I figured you just didn't have anything and were betting because I checked twice".

A good read, but not quite right. I had top pair and played it weakly. I probably should have accounted for that in my analysis. It was late in the tourney and I could have used those chips. But calling all-in? Bleah.

Still, it was the right read. Should have went with it. He might have hit the flush on the river, but my money would have gone in while ahead.

---

Sidebar - another fun (not) hand from the tourney - the dealer accidentally flipped over a card while dealing. No biggie, happens all the time. That player gets the burn card, and then there's no burn for the flop. But this time, she also flipped over the extra card while passing it to him. That's a misdeal - we pass in our cards and deal again.

Should have never done it, but I flipped over my hand to see what I didn't get to play. Pocket aces. Obviously.