Monday, December 20, 2010

Arrow pointing the wrong way

Down 4 guy-ins in the last 4 sessions, although the last 2 are just half buy-in losses, so in a twisted way you can call it an improvement.

Last month's gains are wiped out. I don't care about the cash, I was more interested in my win rate. What is my win rate? Am I a mediocre 2.8, better, or (gulp) worse? The great part is that I'll probably never know - I won't play enough lifetime hands to let variance work its way out. Great game, this poker.

Had trouble with this hand. 3bet pot, 3 people to the flop. I've got top/top on a monochrome board. SPR is under 2. Do we just go with this hand?

Feral Cow Poker Hand Converter
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em $0.10/$0.25 - 8 players

CO: $27.34
Button: $25.35 (Hero)
SB: $31.33
BB: $27.48
UTG: $28.36
UTG+1: $24.32
MP: $25.60
HJ: $25.30

Preflop: ($0.35) Hero is Button with (8 players)
3 folds, HJ raises to $1, CO calls $1, Hero raises to $4.75, 2 folds, HJ calls $3.75, CO calls $3.75

Flop: ($14.60) (3 players)
HJ checks, CO checks, Hero ???

Pot is 14.40, effective stacks are 20.55. SPR is like 1.5. I feel like any hand that's willing to get it in either has me crushed, has a ton of equity, or is tied and freerolling me (Ad). But the SPR is so tiny. We might get some other AKs that don't have the Ad to fold, so there's at least a little bluff element to shoving. Is that enough? Do we just slide the slider all the way to the right, close our eyes and click "bet"?

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Push -- there are enough underpairs to your kings that hold diamonds that will call your bet with the worst of it. Check-fold is insanely weak, unless you have overwhelming evidence that your opponents would only play made flushes or AA. That's just not happening at 10c/25c.