Monday, January 24, 2011

Using your stats - knowing what he has

Feral Cow Poker Hand Converter
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em $0.05/$0.10 - 9 players

MP: $3.01
MP2: $11.93
HJ: $8.64
CO: $6.80
Button: $10.00 (Hero)
SB: $10.15
BB: $10.00
UTG: $9.65
UTG+1: $16.41

Preflop: ($0.15) Hero is Button with (9 players)
2 folds, MP2 calls $0.10, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.45, 2 folds, MP2 calls $0.35

MP2 is a 13/9, average aggression. I punish the limper, this time with a real value hand for a change.

Flop: ($1.05) (3 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $0.50, MP2 calls $0.50

This limp/call, with those stats, can only mean two things. Either he has a set, or he has a weak overpair right now and doesn't believe my cbet. 13/9s don't play many suited connectors, they sure as hell aren't playing 35. This guy has pocket 2s, 4s, or 6s for a set, or 77-99, I am pretty damn sure sure. I am also surely going to check the next street for pot control and fold to a big bet on the river (but maybe call a small bet, depending on how bluffy I think he might be)...

Turn: ($2.05) (3 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $1.20, MP2 raises to $4.50,

...until I hit my queen, of course. It's a spade, just to give me something to think about, but I decide to trust the HUD stats. 13/9s that limp/call a raise are setminers, not sooooted-connector guys, and I have just set-over-setted him. His checkraise tells me unequivocally now that I am up against a smaller set as opposed to 77-99. Since I'm ruling out the made flush, I am going with the hand - now I just have to decide if I want to shove it in now or wait a street. The three spades are a concern, but if my read is right -there's less than a 1/3 chance he even has a spade in his hand. If he has pocket 2s or 4s, then he can't have a spade (it's on the board, ldo), and therefore can't suck out with a silly 1 card flush on the river. And if he has pocket 6s, then there's a 1/3 chance he doesn't have the spade, also.

I can't do this math in my head - I just realize there's very little chance of him having a spade (it turns out it's about 22%), and there's only an 18% chance of it coming on the river anyway, so I'm officially not worrying about my set being beaten by a flush (it would end up happening just 4% of the time). This allows me to make an interesting choice - if I just call this bet, there, will be $11.05 in the pot, and he'll only have $6.48 left. He will be in desperation shoving mode most of the time. If I shove over his bet now, there's a tiny-tiny chance that he folds by putting me on a flush. There are benefits and drawbacks to each (if a fourth spade does come on the river, he may lose his desire to put his last money in).

The correct choice is usually to get it in before the scare card comes, but I feel that it's probably close. I decide to flat and provide maximum stack pressure on the river, and hope for a blank.

Hero calls $3.30

River: ($11.05) (3 players)
MP2 bets $6.48, and is all in, Hero calls $4.55, and is all in

I get my blank and all goes as expected. I call and wait to see if my analysis was correct.

MP2 showed , and lost with three of a kind, Fours
Hero showed , and won ($18.81) with three of a kind, Queens
Hero won $18.81
(Rake: $1.34)

I obviously felt pretty good about myself after this one. I could have felt just as stupid when he turns over 3s5s and I'm crushed from the flop forward, or As3s to crack me on the turn, but my HUD stats didn't betray me this time. I read him as setminer and was correct. It allowed me to lose the minimum when I was behind, and then win the maximum when I re-sucked-out on him.

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