Saturday, July 30, 2011

Conflicting Considerations

Monthly tourney last night - $50 buy-in. I'm sitting around 20 big blinds, pretty healthy for this fast tourney. I'm sitting on the button and it folds around to me.

I stole the blinds two orbits ago - a king-eight type of holding. Last orbit I passed with Queen-2-off, I glanced to my left and the player there looked ready to play his cards. I was right, he raised all in and the big blind folded.

No such indication this time. Pretty sure he was folding. The big blind was giving no signals - he waits until it is his turn to act before looking at his cards (as I do). He is an older fellow who plays his 2 cards are little else. He will fold well over 90% of the time.

I check my cards- the truly awful jack-deuce. Jack-shit, as I like to say. The old-timers' stack size is a small consideration. He has about 7 big blinds, meaning if I raise and he comes over the top, I would be compelled to call with overwhelming pot odds. But he's not coming over the top, in almost every circumstance, except with maybe aces. He's the sort that would call with pocket kings and fold quietly if an ace hits the flop.

So fold my trash hand and preserve chips, or keep trying to chip up?

Meh. Fast tourney, all signs point to being able to steal. I raise to 2.5 the big blind. The guy to my left folds as he indicated he was going to, but the old-timer checks his cards and calls. Drat. There's 1600 in the pot, and he's got only 800 left.

The flop misses everything - 8-3-3. I can guarantee he has no three in his hand. He almost certainly has no eight, unless he has 88. But there are tons of overpairs that this weak-tighty has called with. He checks. This is probably a sign to just stick the rest of my chips in - there's no deception in this guy's game - he's not checking to checkraise me. But I check as well.

The turn brings a queen, and Mr. Weaktight checks again. This is the clearest green light I could ever hope to receive. He has no queen, and all almost all of his hands have been "caught" by the queen I will now represent holding in my hand. "I'll put you all-in". I say.

He looks down at his chips, perhaps considering for the first time in the hand how little he has left himself. He thinks for a moment, then gives a little shrug. I know the shrug well - it doesn't bode well for me. "Eh, I suppose it's time" he says, and puts them in. He turns over ace-king.

I laugh and state "Beats me, I don't have a thing". I decide to flip over my garbage and advertise my bluff to tarnish my own image for later in case I get dealt a real hand (which I don't). I could hit a jack or deuce on the river to win the pot but do not.

An Ace-high "what the fuck, I give up" call takes a third of my stack - chips that would have certainly helped me later when I ran out of gas in seventh place, out of the money.

I don't hate the play, it just didn't work out this time.

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