Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Are we afraid of this shove?

I can do range/combo analysis fairly well when ranges are this tight.

Merge, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

CO: $4.92 (49.2 bb)
BTN: $18.37 (183.7 bb)
SB: $8.21 (82.1 bb)
BB: $10.15 (101.5 bb)
UTG+2: $10.92 (109.2 bb)
MP1: $18.26 (182.6 bb)
Hero (MP2): $10.61 (106.1 bb)
MP3: $9.85 (98.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q of spades Q of clubs
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.35, 3 folds, SB calls $0.30, BB calls $0.25

Small Blind is a nit: 8 VPIP/5 PFR after 135 hands. 1.8% 3bet. Quick, before you see the flop, put him on a range. Flop: ($1.05) J of clubs 3 of hearts Q of diamonds (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $0.70, SB calls $0.70, BB folds

Top set, nice for me. And some action, too: he calls, too. How's his range look now?

Turn: ($2.45) K of diamonds (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.83, SB calls $1.83

Hmmmm, This bet is bigger, and he's still calling...

River: ($6.11) 6 of spades (2 players)
SB bets $5.33 and is all-in, Hero ?????

Villain open shoves for 80% of pot. Do we call this bet or not?


bastinptc said...

Only two things I'd think: He's a nit who's going to flat call with Jacks or a super nit flatting Kings; or he's not as nitty as we think and he called looking for the gut on the turn. My money's on one of the first two, and I fear it's Kings. But I'm a simpleton with monsters under my bed.

The Poker Meister said...

Snap call. 1.8% 3bet @ 135 hands is not a complete sample size, but says he's straight-forward & raising AA/KK/AK(?). 8/5 says he's not generally calling ATo to a raise. Me thinks 3's for the set. I don't think you're ever wrong to be calling this open river shove here.