Friday, September 28, 2012

How good are you?

Monthly $50 tourney, 8 players left. An unusual tourney for me in that I actually accumulated chips early, as opposed to dwindling down to nothing and then shoving for 3 hours. I played table bully for awhile with my big stack, but my cards and opportunities disappeared in the middle blind stages, so I've been holding tight and waiting for a hand.

Blinds have just gone up to 200/400, and I have 5800 chips. 14 and a half big blinds left. In early position, I'm dealt pocket queens. I raise up to 1600, a bit bigger size to make up for my position, but I get one caller anyway. Pot is 3800.

Flop comes Jack-Ten-x, and my queens remain an overpair. My opponent, a decent player who isn't playing connectors ace-rag at this stage of the tournament, glances over at my stack, and then back at his. I pause a beat to check his mood, he looks comfortable.

I have 4200 chips left, a pot sized bet. SPR of 1 and an overpair in a fast tourney, pretty much a no brainer, right? I stick my chips in. He asks how much, but only to count out his chips to make the call. I pray for ace-jack, but am not expecting it.

He tables pocket kings. Nice hand, sir. I'm out in eighth place.

No big deal. If he reraises me preflop, I'm not folding queens with 14 blinds left, and he coolers me the more standard way. The thing I keep thinking about, though, is that I was pretty sure I was behind on the flop. My opponent's actions, mannerisms, and mood was telling me as much. Am I good enough to fold at this point of a tourney, though? Is it even correct to ever fold there? I guess I would feel pretty dumb if his comfort level is due to holding ace-jack or king-jack, which is entirely possible.

So I'm not going to stress over it, just wondering if it's possible. They say someone folded quads in the One Drop tourney because he knew he was beat, so I suppose it's possible to fold queens as an overpair with a pot sized bet left to play.

But I don't think I'm good enough to do it.


Memphis MOJO said...

You have to call because they go all in with so many different hands that you crush. Once in a while, you are the crushee.

CdrData said...

You can't fold for less than 60 BBs effective.

Sometimes your opponents stumble on the optimal play without knowing it. Flatting with KK is always terrible in this spot, but it causes you to lose more since you can't put him on that range.

It would be a much better play at 300 BBs effective.

MorningThunder said...

I know that conventional wisdom says you have to go here, but I think you can find a fold here. It all depends on your feel and read of your opponent. So many times I have ignored my reads only because the math dictated so and ended up regretting it His sizing up chip stacks is a classic tell. I agree with mojo and data. You gotta move on this flop unless you KNOW you are crushed. If so putting anymore chips doesn't work for me. Put the remaining in blind and see all five cards.

I believe Annie Duke found a fold wit TT in that winner take all $1 million.tourney years back. Math said go. Heart said no and she ended up banking a cool mill

Chip and a chair. Yadda yadda. Cliches aside I most likely push as well