Monday, February 11, 2013

Fer fuck's sake

Quote in title from the video "How To Play JJ". Worth a watch if you've never seen.

Blind vs. Blind battle. Flop top set and we get all in on the flop(!). He has a flush draw + 1 (worthless) over. I even have one of his flush cards. He hits.

Blind vs. Button battle. This guy steals a ridiculous percentage. I have AA and 3bet him. He folds vs. 3bets a bunch, so I figure that's the end of it. But he 4bets! Ah-ha! My 5% 3bet percentage from the blinds is finally going to pay off. I shove - he calls. Ace-King.

He turns the broadway straight, leaving me drawing dead. Jesus.

I wonder if I have enough hands for someone to go through my database - I've got 20,000 hands at .10/.20 now, and I'm losing at a pretty steady clip (-3.54BB/100). I would like to do some work to figure out if it's mostly variance or if there are significant problems in there. It's hard to imagine I'm playing that badly - my prior 20000 hands at .05/.10 saw me as a 9.6BB/100 winner. Like crushing. I'm sure I was running hot then - my true talent isn't anywhere near 9.5BB/100, but I'm pretty sure it's not -3.54 either.

1 comment:

bastinptc said...

Several of the old timers from PAO are playing at another site, I know Stanlev and Opinh Bombay are doing a lot of stats analysis these days. Want me to ask them if they'll run them for you. Or, you can join the small group there and join in the discussion.