Tuesday, December 30, 2008

leaks found

I went back over some old posts on 2+2 this morning, as well as looking at my bad play from last night. Based on this information, I think I've discovered correctable leaks in my late game play -

1) stop panicking at 10BB. There is still time, there is no need to go into "ICM shovey shovey mode" yet. At 6-7BB, it's definitely time to panic, but not at 10. 10 is a good time to shove over a raise, if you have the hand for it (or the fold equity based on a read), but ICM shoving at 10 BB is simply too early, it appears.

2) I'm often ignoring reads/villain stats at the end of the game. Last night I folded around 25 times in a row with garbage cards. I saw the TT with 11 BB and thought "go time". I was in middle position and ready to shove. Then an early position player raised it up first, and my only thought was "even better, now the pot is bigger". I shoved over him. He sat and thought about calling for a good 5 seconds, and that's when I checked his stats and saw the bad news - he was a loose passive player with stats of 38/8 - meaning that his under the gun raise represented a pretty strong hand. He ended up calling with JJ and I was dead meat.

If you take these two leaks together - I should have gotten away from TT last night. It would have been one of those irritating, crying folds, but I could have done it. I would have still had 10 BB and enough time to come up with a hand or get lucky somewhere.

Looking at the big picture, my holdem ROI graph is a steady upward climb in the first 5 months, and then I suffered 2 negative months in a row. (one very negative, one slightly so). I've basically run even for about 120 tourneys.

I need to verify this - but I wonder if this small downswing corresponds to when I stopped playing by Harrington's "M" clock, and started using pure BB? I used to get desperate in
Harrington mode with an M of 5 - which corresponds to 7.5 BB. When I switched to using a BB clock, I also switched to a "panic mode" of 10 BB, which is decidedly an earlier "go" time.

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