Monday, August 9, 2010

A real player would have had a huge night

Pretty amazing cards tonight - quads three times, and 3 full houses as well. Sadly, I won half a stack on all these hands put together. Nobody had enough to call a river bet.

Add some poor postflop play, and one hellacious suckout - you get -20 BB in 1299 hands. I hate my postflop game right now. Every night I'm losing a big hand due to bad/questionable play. Here is tonight's disaster:

Feral Cow Poker
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em $0.05/$0.10 - 6 players

BB: $14.98 (Hero)
UTG: $12.74
UTG+1: $10.39
CO: $4.00
Button: $5.71 26/14 with 38% to steal
SB: $7.90 no read

Preflop: ($0.15) Hero is BB with (6 players)
3 folds, Button raises to $0.30, appears to be standard steal
SB calls $0.25
, .. plus dead money....
Hero raises to $1.50
, .. equals squeeze by me....!
Button calls $1.20
, SB folds

Flop: ($3.30) (2 players)
Hero bets $2, Second Pair, I basically commit myself.
Button raises to $4.21, and is all in
Hero calls $2.21 Gotta call now, 4:1 odds

Turn: ($11.72) (2 players)

River: ($11.72) (2 players)

Hero showed , and lost with two pair, Kings and Queens
Button showed , and won ($10.94) with three of a kind, Kings
Button won $10.94
(Rake: $0.78)

Dead to AK. I like my logic and play up until the point that the button calls. Now I know he has some kind of hand. What range can I put him on? Some players can't let go of pairs, even though it's wrong to call them in 3bet pots (esp. with half a stack), so let's go 88+, AK, and some random club connectors. If I do this, I get 59% equity with my AQ. Take out AA/KK (who would almost surely would 4bet instead of flat calling with the dead money in there, and my equity zooms up to 66%.

Add this on the fly equity calc to the fact that my SPR on the flop is like 1, so am I committed anyway?

Bad luck (hitting the top of his range) or bad play here?

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I think the squeeze is ok, but not sure about betting out on the flop.

If you're hoping worse hands call, what hands in the range you've assigned will call your flop bet?

Lower pairs JJ-88 fold.

You haven't even put any Qx hands in his range, so there are no Q's calling. but if there are, they are QT QJ, who may or may not call.

You have the Qc so if he has suited clubs, he has AJ (FD +GS) or JT (OE+GS) T9 (FD+GS) or the lower sc's. You are not always folding out these hands, but it is good to make them draw. Some of these hands will reshove, some of the low sc's will fold. probably about a wash.

Any K is calling, especially some of the suited ones like KcTc KcJc (TP+FD +BDSD). AKunsuited, KQ, KJ, KT all may stack here if they were calling PF with these hands, you might get some to fold, but that at least washes with the ones that will definitely call.

i think check-raising might be better bc you might get him to bluff some of the hands that you beat, and he might semi-bluff his draw hands or air. He might bet his K's but you've decided to commit anyway, so checking allows him to bet a wider range than his calling/shoving range.

i may check-call check-fold or check-raise(maybe shove) here but i think bet-call means you're beat or at best 50-50 (versus the bigger draws). Hopefully he shoves a bare SD or low FD though.