Monday, September 20, 2010

What would you do? AA on turn vs. a 77/9

When you're sitting at a table with a 77/9 and a 75/32, and you're playing 14/8 - you should occasionally, just fucking occasionally, end up with a better hand than they have.

Not tonight.

Tell me what you would do on this turn.

Feral Cow Poker Hand Converter
HEM/Full Tilt NL Hold'em $0.05/$0.10 - 9 players

MP2: $3.40
HJ: $10.37 77/9/1.2, 79 hands. You read that right.
CO: $10.00
Button: $10.00 16/7/2.7, 56 hands.
SB: $10.15 18/13/1.5, 78 hands.
BB: $21.98 75/32/3.4 76 hands.
UTG: $10.00 (Hero)
UTG+1: $6.48
MP: $13.13 10/8/2/3, 155 hands

Preflop: ($0.15) Hero is UTG with (9 players)
Hero raises to $0.35, UTG+1 folds, MP calls $0.35, MP2 folds, HJ calls $0.35, CO folds, Button calls $0.35, SB calls $0.30, BB calls $0.25
Brilliant. Let's take aces to the flop 6 handed, shall we?

Flop: ($2.10) (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, MP checks, HJ checks, Button checks
Wanted to checkraise here, I thought someone would be the king, or even the nine. They don't.

Turn: ($2.10) (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $1.10, MP folds, HJ raises to $2.20, 3 folds,
Villain who is raising me is 77/9/1.2. There's no way to tell what he has. He could have K2 here.

I won't post the end of the hand. If I folded, I'm a moron for folding an overpair vs. a 77/9. If I called/shoved and was beaten, I'm a moron for not listening to Baluga. Maybe I should have just check/called the aces to the river and won/lost a small pot.

That doesn't work either, by the way. If you play them slow, then someone catches two pair on you. Playing fast runs you into the hands that beat you - playing slow lets the hands you beat catch up. You can't win.


The Poker Meister said...

Okay... need a little bit more information here: what are the numbers? VPIP/PFR/??? (MP has an extra set of numbers, so not sure what that's all about), hands...

Let's assume that the third number is aggression factor?

With AA, I'm absolutely leading this dry flop. Anyone with a King is going to be calling, and I want to charge them for it. Additionally, I *WANT* to thin the field; I prefer not to let MP, SB & BTN draw at their supposed pocket pairs to hit their sets for free... Same goes for the monkeys who are running 70%+ VPIP - I want to make them pay to draw for their potential 2 pair hands. Moreover, IMO, your attempt at a c/r, while noble, will shut down all action when it gets back around to your raise, which is not what you want.

On this kind of board, IMO, the only hands that are beating you are flopped sets. We can deduce that no one hit a set of Kings (would have been 3bet PF), which leaves sets of 9's & 5's. That's a very focused range.

Additionally, he min raised you... this is not strong or huge. I likely call and check / call the river - given that a 77/9 can have a super wide range which includes turned draws, and all sorts of XXs combinations which don't make sense to a standard player (i.e. K3s, 93s, 53o, etc.), as well as Kx hands who feel that they have played their hands tricky. I'm giving this raise less credit by calling, but not trying to get stacks in with my unimproved AA. The way the pot is set up, you will call the $1.10 raise and there will be $4.40 in the pot. Unless he makes a big overbet, he's not getting stacks in.

Finally, I want to point out that your interpretation of Baluga does not really apply here. You did not cbet this flop (it checked through) to establish your hand strength. You essentially gave a free card to all players. Baluga is really an indicator that even though you've represented the strength of your hand, your opponent believes his hand to be stronger.

In this case, you've under-repped your strength on the flop. Moreover, this raise is not entirely unexpected and does not necessarily indicate that you are beat, though I'm not certain where you are in the hand.

Finally, I hope this is not a "woe is me" type hand - you're going to be good enough times to warrant the calling off against a 77/9 (with the assumption that he's bet like this before). All of the assumptions are predicated on the fact that the HJ spazs frequently, "value betting" his TPNK, as opposed to check / folding most flops and being completely passive in pots that he did not hold a strong hand.

Poker J said...

If you have players with VPIPs over 50 and you are oop to them in a hand, go ahead and raise to something like 5 or 6 bb. This will keep the other week hands from entering after them and you are getting value while you are a head.

CR this flop will only get called by sets. You should lead the flop like 3/4. If called by the fish, lead 1/2 to 3/4 on the turn. If called by a reg, you might check for pot control and maybe induce them to bluff with a ch/c, ch/c line.

If you are raised on the turn by fish, just call down.

If a reg with a low agg factor raises the turn, you might fold and just know it sucks to play oop.

Poker J said...

BTW, never play an over pair slow multi way. On dry boards, you will get called by other one pair hands and your are protecting your equity against draws. With sets, you can try to get more value with slower lines.

If you are heads up, you might CR a flop oop but NEVER multi way.