Tuesday, April 12, 2011


I did it again. Last hand at a table that all the fish abandoned. Fucking Ace-King suited under the gun, and immediately three bet by the guy on my left, also in early position.

This guy is a high three-better. Over 6%. He terrorizes the blinds, but of course this wasn't the blinds. This was three betting an UTG raiser. Of course, he had already 3bet me once from early position, and I had folded. Was convinced he was targeting me and my 85% fold-to-3bet percentage (I'm sure he is, actually).

I just 4bet shoved. Lets me realize my full equity against jacks and queens because I get to see all 5 cards. It comes with a price - a near-guaranteed stacking vs. aces, and pretty close vs. kings. This time it was kings.

Last fucking hand. Had to be that one player, at that one table, with the monster. Couldn't be the other 5 nits with 1% 3bet percentages. Couldn't have dealt me the some cards in the bottom 97% of hands instead of the top 3. Set up perfectly to lose all my money.


Poker J said...

Something to think about. You are basically getting into a coin flip for your last hand of the night. There are extend EV impacts of that because you are now blogging FFF. You might consider just letting a spot like this go.

I am not saying this is the correct play in that hand but a long term frustration preventor.

matt tag said...

agreed 100%. One of those conflicting information hands, giving me advice from both camps, and I paid attention to the wrong half.

The camp I should have listened to was "you think this guy is messing with your UTG raise?". That, and "it's the last hand of the night, just fold!!"

Forrest Gump said...

Two quick things Matt.

First, whether its the last hand, or first hand, or random hand in the middle of a monster session, you just need to ask if it was the correct decision. It's kinda short-term thinking.

Second, Phil Galfond made an excellent point some time back that its actually +EV to pass on these potential flips if you think it might tilt you for future sessions.