Sunday, February 28, 2010

gave it a shot

I tried to end the month on a good note - I was in striking distance of erasing my deficit and crawling back to even. It didn't work out. People flopping sets on me (including when I had a set myself), people catching up to me with 2-3 outs, Aces cracked (twice), Kings cracked, losing 70-30 all ins - just your general all-around run of the mill poker disaster packaged into 90 minutes and 616 hands of Rush Poker. Good times all around.

Giving it one more go tonight, but not Rush - back to the 6max ring game for me...

Postscript:
The most beautiful hand in the world is the one that gives you a full house and gives your opponent the nut flush. Had a decent evening session - didn't win back all of my rush poker disaster, but at least I know I can play this game well, occasionally.


Saturday, February 27, 2010

Sixty percent of the time, it works every time

In the last post, I described a hand I witnessed where a player gave up a known 3-1 edge, for fear of getting sucked out on. But 3-1 is merely the smallest edge he could have given up.

Mr. Meek hasn't fully grasped the concept of fold equity. If a player is going to fold some percentage of the time, then you are going to win all of those hands.

When Brian Fantana said "60% of the time, it works every time" in the movie Anchorman - he wasn't talking about Sex Panther cologne - he was talking about fold equity. If I make a big bet, and I think my opponent will fold 60% of the time, then I win every one of those pots - 60 out of 100.

So let's review. My opponent has accidentally revealed his cards - he holds King Queen. I hold Ace-Jack. The board is eight-nine-ten rainbow, and I'm a 74% favorite to win the hand if it gets to showdown. What if I shove all-in though? Will my opponent call with a gutshot straight draw and two overcards?

We don't know that answer. He might. He might be feeling embarrassed about revealing his cards, and now he just wants to get out of there. Or maybe he's willing to call all in trying to hit the jack for the nut straight. We're not sure. But we do know that most reasonable players would have to fold this hand, because that's the correct poker play. So let's say this player might call 20% of the time for whatever reason.

If he calls 20%, that means he folds the other 80%. When he folds, we win 80% of the time, every time, just like Brian Fanatana said. The 20% of the time he does call, we will win 74% of those hands. Do the math and it adds up like this:

0.80 + (0.20 * 0.74242) = 95%.

Read that again - I will win the pot 95% of the time if I push all in here, assuming he calls off his stack 20% of the time with a straight draw and 2 overcards.

You might argue that 20% is too low - maybe the situation and his embarrassment makes him call more often. Well, here are the percentages we will win based on the percentages he will call, in 10% increments: (click to embiggen)

So even if our confused villain calls off his stack half the time in this situation (an almost ridiculous assumption) - we will win the pot a total of 87% of the time. 87% is more of an edge than pocket aces have over a random hand. And if you make the villain's call percentage something more realistic, like maybe 20-30%, the percentage of us winning only gets bigger - north of 90%

To conclude, when you add any reasonable amount of fold equity, failing to push all your chips in the middle with AJ, on an 89T rainbow board, when you know your opponent holds king-queen offsuit, is a bigger mistake than folding aces preflop.

Or, as I called it before, the worst poker play I have ever seen.


Blessed are the meek.

Monthly live tourney last night - 44 players. Down to 15, and I'm down to 8 blinds. Pocket tens in middle position - good enough. I shove'em all in. Folds around to the big blind, who says in a conciliatory way - "I call". Pocket aces. No help for me on the board and I'm out. (second month in a row I shove into the bullets, by the way. No fun).

The play is fine, by a long shot. I'm hoping of course someone calls with 99/88, but am happy to take a race with AK/AQ too, where I'm a 56% favorite. Times are desperate, and an edge of 6% is plenty enough to gamble with.

6% isn't enough for some people to gamble - they want a little more assurance. Poker doesn't usually give you that kind of comfort, but last night I witnessed someone willingly turn down an enormous edge. It might have been the single worst poker play I have ever witnessed.

200-400 blinds, an average stack makes a standard raise. A man in the blinds calls. I have played much of the tourney with the caller - he is obviously inexperienced and nervous. He has made several errors during play - acting out of turn, forgetting to put his blind in, etc. The game has been friendly and helped him along to this point.

This time, though, he makes an egregious error - he flips his cards over, thinking his opponent is all in. Everyone at the table goes "woah-woah-woah" and holds their arms out trying to stop him - but it is too late, the table has seen his hand. King-Queen. He is not sure what he has done wrong, and 4 people trying to explain it to him at once isn't helping. The talking soon stops and someone says "nobody is all-in sir, you shouldn't have revealed your cards". He says "oh, sorry", and flips his king-queen back face down.

Bless his heart.

The action I have described above is not what I was previously alluded to as the worst poker play I have ever witnessed. That's still coming.

Ok, so we all know that the confused guy has KQ, and it's time to see a flop. The flop comes 8-9-T rainbow. A miss for the confused guy, but a jack would sure be a nice card. Confused guy has to act first, and he checks.

Let's put you into the action. You are the initial raiser. What is your play?

Oh wait, you can't answer the question - I haven't told you what you're holding yet.

Oh, wait again - I don't have to tell you what you're holding to answer the question. The correct answer is to push all your chips into the middle just as fast as you can. You shove in the morning, shove in the night, and shove twice on Sundays. Shoving is the right answer, and it is the right answer by an overwhelming margin. Taking any other action is a terrible, awful mistake.

That's not what happened. I was watching the initial raiser very closely because this was a unique, rare situation in a poker game, and I wanted to see what this guy would do. Here's what he did - he sighed, very deliberately and audibly. And then he checked behind.

And, that, my (few) readers, is the single worst poker play I have ever seen.

The turn and the river went the same way. Cards were dealt, confused guy checked with no pair and a gutshot straight draw, and the initial raiser (henceforth known as Meek guy) checked behind. They got to showdown without putting another chip into the pot, and Meek guy wins the showdown. He held ace-jack, and wins with unimproved ace-high

Now rewind back to the flop. You have raised with ace-jack. You get a caller in the blinds, and find out through a mistake that he holds king-queen. The board is dealt and you both miss, but you are a 3-1 favorite to win the hand, guaranteed. AJ vs KQ on a 89T board is about 74.2% to win. Meek guy, in one rare divine gift of the poker gods, knew for a fact he was a 3-1 favorite to win the hand, and decided not to put one chip into the pot.

As he dragged his chips over after the hand, I was dumbstruck. I should have kept my mouth closed, but I did not. "Why didn't you bet there, you were like a 70% favorite to win, and you knew it" (I was a bit low in my at-the-table math).

He replied. "What if he calls and hits his jack? - then I'm out of the tournament."

More dumbstructness. Utter gobsmacked-itude. I wanted to make some type of comment about how I would love to sit down in a game where I knew I was a 3-1 favorite every time, but I garbled it up and it came out way more condescending and directed at the original raiser than I intended. He replied back to my challenge "come on into a hand, then".

Meek guy passed up a 100% known, rock-solid 3-1 edge - a huge error - but I'm actually understating the magnitude of his mistake, and I'm understating it by quite a bit. (To quote David Sklansky), DUCY? My next post will elaborate.

Friday, February 26, 2010

Managing Mr. Pietzak

Woe is me in the Thursday night cash game when Mr. Pietzak sits on my left. His handreading skills and position become a thorn in my side unless I (or the poker gods) do something about it.

I actually made a bunch of money early tonight on other players - stacked Tony with 2 pair from the blind (he called it a night early after dropping 2 buy ins in an hour), and pushed someone out of a pot with a mere top pair but on an all-flush board. He check-called all the way to the river - sure looked like he had the ace of spades to me, but the fourth spade didn't come and I got a river fold.

Mr. Pietzak was calling my raises in position all night. In an early hand I had queen-jack suited and raised it up. He called. Whiffed the flop and cbet - he called. Hit a queen on the turn and checked, thinking about a checkraise, but he checked behind. River wasn't scary - I thought I was good, but I decided to check again to see if he would fire. He did not, so I showed my top pair, which was good.

I made a similar play with an ace-rag hand against him later (hitting the ace on the turn), but this time he bet the river small and I called, again winning a small pot.

This was a fine result. Mr. Pietzak now knew that my check on the river did not mean I was giving up, and that I was trying to induce him to bluff. He could not simply bet/bet/bet when I checked.

This kept me out of trouble on yet another similar hand. I had an ace that paired up in another tangle with him, but my kicker was lousy (5 or 6). When I checked the river (a ten), he made a near pot-sized bet. I reasoned that he knew I was capable of check-calling a top pair hand, and that a bet of this size, if a bluff, was sort of stepping off the ledge. It was much more likely to be a value bet trying to get paid off by a bluff catcher, so I folded. He told me later that he had pocket tens and hit a set on the river. Nice play by me.

I did have my one shot with Mr. Pietzak for a big pot but it didn't come. Raised up pocket aces to $3 and he three bet me to $7.

Everyone folded back to me. My range for him was TT+ or AK. This game gets pretty straightforward in a 3-bet pot - one usually doesn't find someone 3betting with pocket sevens or suited connectors. I had to decide on merely calling for deception (and giving him the chance to hit his set) or 4 betting. In most cases, 4 betting in this game pretty much turned my hand face up - or did it? I had been pretty aggressive tonight - I had been all-in twice, showing down the 2 pair, but not showing the other. Maybe the old reverse-dipsy-doo was in order and a 4bet would look like a bluff, or a tilty overbet. Or, maybe he simply had a hand too strong to fold and it was cooler time.

I made it $18 more. Mr. Pietzak was not pleased - he was thinking hard, shuffling his chips. "You got aces?", he asked - I tried not to react. He said "it's 50-50", and, after careful consideration, he stated "well, I've only done this once before, congrats Matthew" and flipped pocket kings into the muck. SON OF A BITCH.

A great fold, surely - but like I said - the most likely read of a 4bet in this game is aces. The signs were there, and he read them well. A flat call of his 3bet would have had a better chance of getting the money this time.

My early big pots and a couple small ones along the way carried the evening to a $43 profit.

Monday, February 22, 2010

good handreading can kill the fear

My two biggest wins of the night - one hand I played well, the other not so much. First the not-so-much.

Full Tilt, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

CO: $62.57
BTN: $25.25
SB: $34.45
Hero (BB): $36.78
UTG: $43.46
MP: $4.25

Pre-Flop: 9 8 dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG raises to $0.75, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.75, SB folds, Hero calls $0.50

I call with suited connectors from the blind. I usually fold this, but UTG was very tight and I thought I could stack an overpair if I hit trips or two pair. I also had a third player in the hand, improving my pot odds.

Flop: ($2.35) 3 9 8 (3 Players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, BTN checks

Two pair, no flushes, nice. A checkraise is in order, but nobody obliges me.

Turn: ($2.35) T (3 Players)

Hero bets $1.50, UTG raises to $4.10, BTN folds, Hero calls $2.60

ok, so I come out swinging, and get immediately raised. I make a half-hearted attempt at putting him on a range now, but all I get is that little "zzt zzt" noise in my head. All I can think of are all the hands that just took the lead on me - T9, TT, JQ, or the sets that were ahead the whole time. I vaguely think there are probably some other hands in here that I might still be beating, and that causes me to call the checkraise.

River: ($10.55) 8 (2 Players)

Hero bets $6.25, UTG raises to $16.50, Hero calls $10.25

A full house for me, and another raise on the river. I'm still looking at the hands that beat me. I'm not going to fold a full house, but I'm not sure I'm supposed to stack off with the underboat either, so I call.

Results: $43.55 Pot ($2.17 Rake)

Hero showed 9 8 and WON $41.38 (+$20.28 NET)
UTG showed J Q and LOST (-$21.35 NET)

I caught up to the nut straight, woohoo. Didn't feel that good about it, though.

This hand (also a probably suckout) went a bit better...

Full Tilt, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BB: $76.93
UTG: $25
MP: $25
Hero (CO): $58.86
BTN: $25
SB: $24.22

Pre-Flop: J J dealt to Hero (CO)
UTG folds, MP raises to $0.75, Hero raises to $2, 2 folds, BB calls $1.75, MP calls $1.25

No correct way to play pocket jacks of course. My opponent was 21/16 - not overly loose. This three bet was more to make sure the button didn't come in behind me - I wanted position on the hand. If someone shoved over me, I'm not usually inclined to stack off with JJ unless I know the villian is bad, or his stack isn't big enough to worry about. I got a caller in the blind, and the original raiser just called.

Flop: ($6.10) A K 3 (3 Players)
BB checks, MP checks, Hero checks

Crappy flop for pocket jacks. I choose to not c-bet into 2 players, I don't think I'm folding out anything that I'm beating, and nothing worse than me is calling.

Turn: ($6.10) J (3 Players)

The miracle card.

BB checks, MP checks, Hero bets $3.75,
BB folds, MP raises to $10,

I bet it out, and get checkraised. Uh-oh. For some reason, my handreader static clears up and I can put this guy on a range much better than before. What's he have that beats me?

AA or KK. Means he slowplayed when he hit his set. But it also means that he played oddly preflop - after I three bet, AND a blind called, he just smooth called as well. A good player wouldn't smooth call with AA/KK and dead money in the pot - he would 4 bet to get heads up.

QT - this player didn't call a 3 bet with QT. He probably didn't even open-raise with QT from MP. If he has QT, then my read is off, and he's getting my stack.

I'm ahead of everything else. Plus there are many hands I'm beating that might play for stacks now: AK (much more likely to call a three bet, and likely to check the flop and hope to checkraise). Pocket threes. AJ and KJ. AQ? Maybe. Combo pair/spade draw (KsQs)? Sure. It looks like I'm ahead, and there are several hands that will play for their stack. Time to get it in.

Hero raises to $56.86 and is All-In, MP folds

Results: $26.10 Pot ($1.30 Rake)
Hero WON $24.80 (+$12.80 NET)

Friday, February 19, 2010

Stacked!

took an early beatdown in my Thursday game in one of those hands where both players have strong draws and won't be folding. Raised up As9s, Mr. Pietzak called. Flop 6s7s8d, I've got the 8 out straight draw and the nut flush draw. I like my chances against anything except the made straight. He bets, I raise, he puts me all in, I call. He's got 89 - top pair + straight draw. We're about 53-47 and he takes it down.

No worries, though, and no tilt. A big hand that we both played correctly doesn't go my way -that's what the second buyin is for. To be continued.

Thursday, February 18, 2010

tweeting away

I have joined twitter, where I plan to tweet my bad beats and good hands, instead of whining about them here. I hope this forum reverts back to more strategy/playing style/hand discussion.

My twitter username is @taglius.

Tuesday, February 16, 2010

instant switcheroo.

Nice session going, playing two tables of normal 6max .10/.25 instead of Rush. Up $40. Then a good player sits down two to my right and starts whacking me. Raises up every blind.

I three bet from the big blind with AK, then checkraise the flop, he calls down and wins with 89 that hit a pair. Later I three bet bluff, he four bets, have to fold. Then I three bet a third time with AK, he calls and stacks me with KQ that hits a straight. Just like that, profits gone. He decides to leave the table too (not sure why when he has an ATM like me in the blind).

I called it a night at 17 down, but I wanted to try out some video recording software to see how well it recorded my sessions, and I fired up a Rush session for 100 hands, and got cold decked for 12 more, so another $29 out on the night.

The good news is that I have decided to invest some money in some training. I have chosen the trainer and we have had an initial conversation. Hopefully he'll find some tweaks (or outright major problems) in my game and get me back on track.

Monday, February 15, 2010

checking the turn - pot control

Still getting used to playing a full 100BB stack, and I think I have found a weapon that helps me in this effort - checking the turn with good-but-not-great hands.

Example: I have pocket jacks in middle position. I raise to 3x the big blind. A blind calls, so I'm in position.

The board comes queen high and unconnected, say Q85 rainbow. The blind checks, I cbet, and he calls. There's no draw for him to chase, so I would put his holdings into one of the following categories:

a flopped set (sets always lurking)
a queen (AQ/KQ/QJ)
middle pair (called with 78s/89s, for example).
small pocket pair floating me.
random hands that missed but are floating me (AK, maybe JT hoping for a gutshot or just a pure float).

I'm beating most of these hands. Furthermore, most of them have very few outs against me. However, I don't have a big enough hand to play a big pot. If he checks again on the turn, my latest play is to check most turn cards, with the intention of calling most river bets. The turn check seems to burn into the villain's mind that I have nothing - I cbet the flop that I missed, and now I'm giving up. This causes them to fire the river on all their middle pair holdings.

The drawback is allowing them to catch up with an AK type hand, or hit two pair on their middle pair. But we're talking giving free cards with 5 or 6 outs available - this won't happen very often (they'll hit between 10 and 12%). And even if they do hit, or if they had a queen all along (KQ/QJ) the pot is too small for them to stack me.

If they decide to shove the river (either as a bluff or b/c they had their set all along or hit their unlikely outs), then I fold and give up the small 7x pot. Possibly exploitable, but I don't see many players bluff-shoving the river with middle pair or top pair/crappy kicker very often.

Just another benefit of being in position - pot control.

Sunday, February 14, 2010

one night reprieve from the pain

Had a nice 426 hand session tonight and posted a $28 win. Got lucky in the last 2 hands though only one paid me off. In the first, I iso-raised a loose aggressive player with AQ and flopped a straight, and like is normal lately, won nothing post-flop.

I was admittedly just a tiny bit tilty after yet another big hand going for naught, and on the next hand I raised up a king-nine suited. I was in a wee-bit too early position to play this hand, though, and the button called my raise.

We saw a flop of King-Five-Two, with two clubs. I reminded myself not to go broke on a pair, especially out of position and with a crappy kicker, but I had to bet anyway. The button called. ok, King (probably a better kicker), or a pair under the king who just doesn't believe me. Maybe ace-rag that hit the rag, or hit the gutshot draw. Turn pairs the two - no change in status, but I check to shorten the hand. He fires out half pot and I call. I won't be calling a huge river bet - but then two great things happen:

1) I notice he only has 5.50 left, a half pot bet.
2) I hit my 9 on the river for two pair.

Well, he's not folding any king now. I bet six bucks and he calls. I'm sure he's livid when I reveal my cards and he shows king-jack. I know how he feels.

I take that good fortune as a sign, and hightail it out of the Rush poker room.

Saturday, February 13, 2010

forty more

Can't win for losing right now - just paid the poker gods 40 more bucks.

Raised up JJ from early position - a blind defended. He was extremely tight. The board was queen high, and he thought a long time about what to do. Either no queen or a set of queens. He checked. I checked (not sure why, could have cbet).

Turn paired the queen. He thought a long time again, then shoved his last 10 bucks in. Ok, no preflop reraise, so no AA/KK. QQ pretty unlikely now that the other two are on the board. He's got AK or a pair under my jacks. I'm ahead. I call his all in.

He shows AK. Great read by me. Well done sir. Nice hand. Doesn't matter though - he hits one of his six outs on the river.

Couple hands later - pocket kings in the blind. I 3bet a late position raiser. He calls. Board is TT3, and I go broke to jack-ten, badly outflopped. No man's land on that hand - out of position with an overpair. Not sure if I played it like a donkey or not, but it cost me $25 more.

Rough month. Big hands not making any money. Pocket aces four times tonight - won 4 bucks on the four hands. Hit top set, win a buck. Now some suckouts to add to the fun.

I have signed up for some training. I'm sure I've got some leaks right now, even if most of this month is just crazy variance. Or maybe it isn't- maybe I'm playing poorly. I intend to find out.

Edit - jumped into a late, $5 buyin multi-table tourney and got sucked out on there too. Awesome hand, played fine, got my money in good. Make it $45 today and $160 this month. Sigh.

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Sisyphus night

Had a good night of poker, but the results were just ok +$11. I would get up 10 bucks or so and then lose it right back being overly aggressive or losing a showdown. I actually went up and back down 3 times. When I got up the fourth time, I called it a night.

I wasn't all-in one time on the night - just chopping, chopping, chopping away at small pots. No big pots won or lost.

One minor adjustment - I set up a hotkey to preflop raise to .65 instead of .75 (blinds are .10/.25). I am using this .65 raise from the button and cutoff, regardless of my holdings (weak or strong), and using the standard raise further away. It seems like people are suspicious of the small bet and might be folding a bit more. If they decide to three bet, then I fold and have saved a dime in the process. If they call, then I am still cbetting 100% of the time. These pots (preflop caller from the blind, then he folds to a cbet) are now smaller overall, but I think the risk balances out the reward.

Tuesday, February 9, 2010

bad run continues....

727 Rush hands, played ok. Made one borderline call when I rivered a set of queens on a 4 straight board - thought he could have had 2 pair and I caught up, but no, he had the straight.

The rest of it was bad luck - my all ins were aces cracked by a set, and KK vs. AQs all in preflop, he hit his ace. Down another $40 tonight, and $120 on the month, with my allin luck running about -249 big blinds this month. The 249 blinds don't bring me up to even, but there are sooo many more types of luck than all-in luck. Short runs of failing to steal blinds or cbets not working can drain you - call raises to setmining and never hitting can drain you - flopping a monster full house when none of your opponents have anything to pay you off keeps you from that double up that you need to make up for getting your aces cracked.

Gotta keep the head up - I've made a couple bad plays but I think I'm playing fine overall. Maybe I'll skip the rush poker for a bit and concentrate on finding some fish on the normal ring tables...

Sunday, February 7, 2010

maybe my career is in sports betting...

800 super bowl Rush hands tonight - had a decent session of $15 won, even though I lost $30 with pocket kings (stacked vs. pocket aces, folding on a four flush board without a flush.

But I made up for it by winning the Super Bowl "squares" pool in my office - so there.

I've got my buy in for the next three weeks of the cash game, yeehaw.

Saturday, February 6, 2010

bang,

Bad play followed by bad (horrible) luck in .10/.25 Rush, down another 2 buy ins. Stacked twice, otherwise played break even poker. Poker Gods have had it with me right now, apparently. REAL bad first week of February.

I'll probably try some big-ass Superbowl tourneys tomorrow to change it up.

Friday, February 5, 2010

Hard to fold the best hand you've had all night...

Thursday night cash game. We only had 5 confirmed RSVPs but ended up with a full table of 9.

My play was spotty tonight. Had a couple of guys at the table I didn't know very well, and both are very good, so I was kind of tiptoeing around them a bit. I opted for a couple river checks where I ended up with the best hand and probably missed some value.

I was basically even on the night except for one hand. King-five soooted in the small blind, I completed in a limped pot with flush aspirations. I hit my five on the flop and another on the turn, giving me trips and position in a three way pot.

The river betting sequence before me was open for $10, raise to $20, then to me. There was a straight out there and a paired board, in a limped pot. I cold-called the $20, and took third place between a made straight and a full house. Truly a poor call by me - I've gotta know my trips are no good there, but I made the call anyway. I could have also played more aggressively on the turn, and heavy fire from both parties would have probably given me enough clue to get away.

That was the only hand I feel I played poorly. I made some plays that didn't end up working out, but these aren't playing bad, just some aggressiveness at the wrong time. No monster hand for me to launch me into the positive - so I settled for a $13 loss on the night.

Tuesday, February 2, 2010

Filled half the hole....

Fired up another Rush session at 8pm tonight. Things started off like they were going last night...

3 bet a blind stealer with AJs from the big blind. He called, then raised my donk bet. Fold, down $4.

Raised with pocket tens. Got three bet and called. Flop was K83 rainbow. He bet, I raised, he called. We both checked turn and river. He had pocket aces. Lost $10.

Could have been much worse on that hand, but between that one and the couple before it, along with some blind payments, I was down $15 in 31 hands. I felt the steam starting to rise again.

I played about even for the next few orbits. I was trying to regain the handle - telling myself all the right things - "stop being results oriented", "focus on making good decisions" and all that stuff. I also decided to tighten up a bit - don't steal every time, don't three bet from the blinds with total garbage. Let's wait for a hand and try to get paid off.

An external source refocused me. A phone call. No, I don't want to renew my Sirius subscription - my car has XM and I've switched my subscription over there. Thanks much, love your product. Bye.

During the phone call, I switched into low-focus autopilot. Fold, Fold, Raise, Fold. After hanging up, my mood was evened out. I clicked back in, waiting for my big hand.

I got it. Pocket kings in the small blind. Folded to me. I raised, figuring the big would fold and I would win a quarter with my monster. Nope, he called.

Then I waited for the inevitable ace on the flop. Was happily surprised again. Jack-Seven-Six rainbow. I checkraise him, he calls anyway. Now visions of two pairs and sets cracking my kings dance in my head.

Turn is an eight. Straights out there now, and some new realistic 2 pairs. But I still need to get value from the worse hands that he'll call with. $4.25 into a $7 pot. He calls again. I'm ready for the beat now.

River is a 2. No flushes, a couple straights. I'm out of position and terrified, but I'm not folding this overpair. My money goes in. He calls instantly and I just wonder what beat me. I predict 67. Maybe 78.

The cards are revealed. He has Ace-Jack sooted - Top/Top. I win a $42 pot.

Wait, what's that?
I win a $42 pot.
Oh, so that's still possible?

A stunning development. I click on my PokerTracker "refresh" button - I'm actually $4 ahead on the night.

Things seem totally different after this hand. Blinds fold to my steals again. I hit some flops. Food tastes better, colors are brighter.

A couple orbits later, I raise up Freddie's hand, 34s, and stack a shorty with a wheel straight. $10 more profit. $19 more when pocket tens set up then boat on the river - Pocket aces can't get away. I race another shorty with pocket jacks - he's got ace-king. I somehow win. $10 more.

After 300 hands, I'm up $46.62 on the night. Just over half my $89 loss from the night before. That's enough to ask for now.

Monday, February 1, 2010

wow, what a slaughter

The downside of Full Tilt Rush Poker is that when things are running bad, they run bad in fast motion. I lost three and a half buy-ins in a single hour tonight in the most soul-sapping, will-crushing session in a long time. 424 hands, I won a total of 2 pots over $3. Two out of four-hundred-twenty-four.

I don't want to recount all of the nastiness in detail, but it included getting raised off of every bluff, people folding to all my monsters, and of course suckouts. The individual hands don't matter of course - it's the piling on of bad followed by more bad followed by still more bad that starts to weigh you down. We learn that bad beats happen - we learn about coolers, we know that every move we make won't work out, we know our reads won't always be right. When you pile all of these over and over in rapid succession - you've reached a new tilt test platform that you have to endure.

As the session went on, I felt pretty tilty but I think I held it together ok. I was still playing the same and thinking through the hands and situation ok. After an hour of taking shots, though - I told myself that one more bad hand and I was shutting it down, for the sake of the bankroll. The hand came with pocket queens - I raised in early position, and immediately got reraised by the guy to my left, him in early position too. Looked like a big hand - the classic cooler. I checked his stack- he only had 50 blinds, and I knew I wasn't folding - fuck him if he had kings or aces. I shoved my queens and he called - with Ace-Deuce suited.

That was my last hand of the night.