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One tourney played tonight - second place finish. I vaulted into the top 3 early by raising with QQ, getting a caller, and having him donkbet half his stack into me on a 552 board. I reraised him all-in, he called his pot-committed last chips with K9s. Oops. Thank goodness for the bad players.
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The bad news for the month - I played very little online. 23 tourneys in all. (the last two months were over 50 each). Actually, this isn't all bad news - the break was nice. Online poker felt more like a hobby again, and less like something I had to do every night.
The good news - my results. A 68% ROI for the month brought back my faith in my game. My cash in last week's live tourney didn't hurt, either.
I'm a good player, dammit, even if I'm break even in the last 200 online tourneys played.
I think I'm going to expand my online game a bit more to some multi table SNGs. I also found a new tool for setting up shortcut keys, so I should be able to play more tourneys now. Next week I'm going to run a 4 multitable test on four $5.50 tables. I'm not sure I'm even going to like multi-tabling - again, it sounds more like a job than playing poker - but I'm going to give it a shot. Maybe I'll do both and multi-table some bigger SNGs.
Played three tonight.
An 18 man that I bubbled in 5th. Final hand was my JJ vs. his A7. Got it in good....
A nine man that I bombed out in 7th. A strange tourney where nobody went out until the 50/100 blind level.
A nine man that I took second place. Hit quad tens while all-in on this one (my TT vs. shorties A7). Final hand was interesting, too - my As8s vs. his Qh9s on an all heart board, 8 high. My top pair vs his flush draw and 2 overcards - he was actually a 52% favorite there, but my all-in is easily warranted considering all the hands he would have to fold on that board. He hit his flush on the river. Well-played by both parties, I think.
Profit on the night - $10.
update: lol at myself for dubbing 3 tourneys, 2 at the same time, "grinding", when comparing to the guys who play 12 tables at a time.
20 man live tourney, hosted by the CPMG. This is my second foray into the this game. This time I brought Tony as an add-on, he ended up sitting to my immediate left to start the $40 buy-in game.
Poker is easy when you get decent cards, which is what I did early. Raised up pocket nines, got multiple callers, and hit a set. The board was all clubs, though, so there was plenty of danger lurking out there. Fortunately, nobody had a club they were willing to go to the wall with. Pocket kings turned into a set as well, but the board was so dry that nobody had enough to come along for the ride there.
I also hit pocket aces early, under the gun. I got one caller on my 3.5x raise - an extremely aggressive player who was building up chips betting and raising whenever it was his turn. The board was semi-dangerous for an early, deep-stacked tourney - 4-7-8 gave 5-6 a straight, there were 2 spades, and of course those hidden sets are always possible. I peeked at my 2 aces one more time - I did have the ace of spades, so I didn't have to worry about the ace-rag flush draws as much. I checked, knowing he would bet, and he didn't fail me. My checkraise got his attention and, after some thought, he folded. I later learned from other hands that this player loved to play ace-anything, so my guess is he had something like ace-seven and was trying to find a way to call a checkraise. Good thing for him he didn't (and possibly for me, avoiding a 5-out suckout).
I played my own medium ace and won a small pot - Ace-nine, for a limp. I hit the ace and bet out, a decent player called me. I didn't like my hand very much then, and things didn't improve with a third club on the turn. We both checked. The river brought me two-pair and a sticky situation. I hadn't played with this player before, but he seemed good enough to raise me off a bet and represent the flush. I could check-call, but that would give him license to make a big river bet and put me in no-man's land, trying to figure out if he had the flush or not. I decided on a blocking bet of half the pot - enough to look like a value bet to a made flush, or to scare a small flush in his hand from only calling and not raising. I ended up getting paid off with a smaller two-pair, I had taken the lead on him only on the river.
Life was good - I was up around 2000 from a 10000 starting stack. I tightened up a bit since I felt maybe my aggressive play would have people gunning for me. Actually, I tightened up more than a bit. I folded an AQo to a raise from under the gun. I was in middle position myself, and didn't want to cold call and set up a squeeze behind me. To think about it now, though - there weren't any short desperate stacks, and the big 3 bet simply isn't that common in a tourney without aces or kings. I also folded pocket fives to a raise, declining to even setmine.
A bit later, Tony raised in from under the gun and got two callers. My big blind hand was KQo. Not a monster, but good pot odds and too strong to fold, even though my recent too-tight play was hinting maybe I should. I would have to watch out for a big hand from Tony under the gun, out of position. I came along. I hit the king with no ace on board, but was still of course worried about aces, kings, and ace-king. I decided to lead out, and pretty strong, too. Tony would tell me right away if he could beat the a pair of kings with a queen kicker. He folded, though, and I figured something like pocket jacks or tens disappointed him. One of the callers behind him, though, called my bet and reraised all-in, but his raise was only a few chips more. I made the mandatory call and found myself up against king-jack, and I outkicked a good player to the rail.
After that decent pot, my cards dried up for awhile and I resorted to making a few position plays and tried some speculative holdings that didn't work out. This got me to the final table with 9 left.
My favorite play of the night - I made a position raise with A4o, and the big blind called me. This player, nicknamed "River Pete" obviously knew what he was doing. The flop whiffed me but didn't look too dangerous, so I made a continuation bet after he checked. River Pete floated my c-bet, and I figured I was in trouble.
The turn brought me an ace. River Pete checked. I figured now he either had the ace and had me outkicked (maybe even had two pair since he called my c-bet with something), or he didn't have the ace and couldn't call a bet here. Since my kicker was crap, I didn't want to play a big pot, so I checked behind him. This prevented me from getting checkraised (where I would have to fold with top pair/no kicker), and would disguise my hand of course. I had the intention of calling a normal river value bet (not an overbet, though). My thinking was that he would bet the river no matter what, with an ace or without one.
The river improved me even more by bringing a four, for two pair. There was a chance this moved me ahead of AK/AQ type hands, but I could still just as easily behind a bigger two pair. However, my plan was the same, I would call a normal bet, knowing River Pete couldn't have me on an ace here. He bet 3000 and I called right away, and he showed pocket threes! Mighty aggressive play by him to try and take that pot. As I stacked the chips, I looked over and he had a puzzled look on his face, possibly going over the action and trying to figure out why I played the hand in this odd way. Odd or not, my check induced a bluff from him, and won me a pretty good pot.
When we got to 6 left, an aggressive female player raised from under the gun to 4.5x. I had been watching her game and had noticed that her bigger bets were often weaker hands that she was trying to protect. We had also seen her three-bet medium pocket pairs in very aggressive style. I found the two black nines in my own hand. My read told me that some smaller pocket pairs were in her range, and probably AJ/AQ-type hands that maybe I could move her off. Her large bet happened to be about a third of her stack, but I still thought I could push her out of some of her range. I put her all in. Her anguished face told me that I had indeed forced her into a tough decision, but she ended up calling and flipping over... pocket tens!
A disaster of a hand for me, but I felt strangely comfortable, perhaps satisfied that my read was pretty much right-on. This hand was probably going to cripple me, though...
The board was all black with two spades, she was still well ahead - but the turn brought a third spade and gave me enough outs to get an audible "uh-oh" from the table. The river spade completed the suckout. I apologized and shook her hand as she got up - getting knocked out after getting your money in as a 4-1 favorite is never fun. She was another tough player and I was very lucky to still be in the game.
Tony ended up busting out in 5th, as the bubble boy. He hit two strong hands (especially for 5 handed play) and got buzz-sawed by pocket aces and another strong hand by the guy with position on him each time to knock him short, then he overplayed pocket fours all-in to the chip leader and ran into pocket eights. We agreed that his endgame was all bad luck except maybe for that last hand - he could have probably found a fold with the pocket fours, but might have been a bit tilty and tired. Other than that, though, he played a great game, getting short early, then climbing back to second in chips with five left.
The last four players went a long time. I had over 20 blinds, and the short stack had around 14, so nobody was too desperate. The chip leader hovered way over everyone and was doing his job stealing the rest of our chips. He was to my left, making it hard to steal. I did try a couple times, but nothing came of my hands. The shortest stack to start 4-handed play was to my right, and he started his all-ins pretty early, like 12 big blinds, and I had nothing to call him with.
I was kind of stuck in the middle, and the cards weren't helping. When the blinds went up to 1500/3000, I had trickled down to only 12,000 chips left. I couldn't let the blinds hit me again. When it folded around to me in the small blind, I pretended to look at my cards, but didn't actually look at them for fear of chickening out. I announced "all-in", and the big stack, big blind said to me "wow, you said that really fast. Ok, I call you". He revealed ace-five. I replied "I said it really fast because I didn't look at my cards. Let's see what I have". I turned over... five-deuce offsuit. Oooof. This brought a laugh from the opponents and the few left watching the action. I had to hit a deuce to continue on, but that didn't happen. I walked away with fourth place money, doubling my buy-in.
I was extremely pleased with this result, all-in-all. This new group of players are all pretty damn good. I still find myself making mechanical mistakes, such as splashing the pot with bets instead of keeping my bet separate from the pot, and missing putting my blind in occasionally - this will assuredly improve with more live play. I wish I could find some of the local fish-food that spew off money like a busted ATM machine, but that hasn't happened yet.
Live poker CANCELED tonight. Not enough guys. That is, of course, until after we canceled and the host took some free baseball tickets, then two guys who didn't RSVP emailed late and said they could play. Uh, guys, that's why we have an RSVP email on Tuesday.
Had to play online. Won a $20 9 man (hooray), and then squeaked into the money in a $10 45 -man. Played tight early, then hit a nice little run of cards and doubled up a couple times (including a QQ holding up vs. AK). Thought I was dead late, though, when I shoved into smaller stacks with K9s, and the small blind thought and thought, then finally called with pocket 4s. When he flopped quads, I just laughed my butt off. I was crippled with 10 players left. (6 get paid). Very touch and go on the bubble, I had like 5 blinds and no cards, and lots of action all around me. Thank goodness someone overplayed top pair and got knocked out in front of me.
Had a good shot to double up on my last hand, though I only had 2.5 BB left - I shoved with A7. The big blind and huge stack (correctly) called me with T7s, and flushed out on the river. Got it in good, got unlucky.
2.5 hours to win $11. Yet another example of how I could earn more money passing out carts at Wal-Mart than I do playing poker, and I would avoid the hassle of seeing people flop quads after making bad bubble calls on me. I shouldn't bitch, though - I'm having a small-sample-size-but-profitable month, and I feel like I'm playing well.
my online play has been reduced this week due to real life issues - I think these will calm down for a bit now, and I can get back into it for the rest of the month.
I will be in need of some hotkey help for FullTilt and UB. Full Tilt Shortcuts (now called PokerShortcuts) has been made open source, but locks up my new PC something fierce (probably a 64 bit Vista issue). I eventually want to start multitabling - this won't be easy without hotkeys.
I did play one $10 tourney last night- I even won it. I've played less than a third of the tourneys I normally do this month, but my win rate is much better. Maybe the trick is to simply not care as much about winning and losing - something that's easier to do when your play rate slips into "occasional" levels.
Live poker tonight and tomorrow - will have real reports on both of those.
Ok, one more note on my 3-bet preflop, shove flop discussion. All of my winning percentages were done in a vacuum, for a single hand.
In the perfect world, of course, if we could choose the action - the idea would be to run this 3-bet/shove flop play 2 or three times in a night, and then run it one more time with pocket aces, and hope our villain has a hand with which he is ready to play for all his chips. That's one of the big goals of the LAG, after all, is to chip and chip away with aggression and then, right when someone over-commits with top pair, he buries them with a big hand.
So winning 1.8 BB/Hand, while impressive, is only part of the goal of this aggressive style of play.
I've been thinking about the math behind my light 3-betting, mentioned in my earlier post. I have since realized that my original math was incomplete.
In order to calculate the true equity of a play like this, I need to add in the times when I don't successfully graze the flop, and have to fold, as I did last night with my 6s7s. (thinking more about it, I should have indeed just folded on the dual broadway board and not taken my continuation bet stab).
So the total equity of the play must account for the following steps. I've included my very first guess of the percentages of each occurring -
villain folds flop to your 3 bet. (50%)
villain 4-bet shoves, you fold. (5% of the time he has JJ+/AK+ and some bluffs)
villain calls (45%)
--- you whiff flop completely and give up. (70% of the time he calls, you whiff or hit a too-weak hand to continue)
--- you hit the flop somehow and get it all in (30%),
-------- he folds (67%).
-------- he calls. (33%)
Your percentage of winning once he calls the all-in varies greatly with how hard you hit the flop, but let's assume that when he calls, he is currently ahead and you have to hit around 6 outs to win, so you win like 25% of the time and lose 75%. This seems reasonable to me - your opponent has already been established as a decent player who isn't going to call an all-in most of the time when way behind. We'll skip the few times (5%-ish) that you end up ahead by flopping 2 pair/trips+. We're also rounding to 6 outs - maybe you have 8 or 9 based on a better draw. Maybe you have 15!I used FlopZilla (cool tool, BTW, google it) to figure out the percentages of time you graze the flop or better with 67s, which is the hand I had last night. Flopzilla tells me I will hit some part of the flop 29.6% of the time, taking out middle pair or bottom pair (which both give me 5 outs, not quite enough for the shove according to the Ed Miller video). All the other possibilities add up to a rounded 30% of the time.
Using the percentages above, my net result is a loss of $1.50! That also takes into account the pot size at each phase. I assumed a villain's original bet of 3.50. (using .50/$1 blinds), us reraising to $10, and having $60 total stacks.
I tweaked my spreadsheet some and got a positive net winnings by making the preflop fold percentage higher - the breakeven point is the villain folding preflop 63% of the time. This is a more realistic percentage anyway, in my opinion, as long as your own image is tight and you're making this move on the right players, you should expect them to fold to three bets fairly often (until you do it often enough to get them to change their strategy). If your opponent folds preflop 75% of the time, then this play will net you close to 2 BB/hand (1.84). Not a bad profit - better than a blind steal, in fact. (with much more variance, truly).
This calculation was done with 67s. If I improve the hand to 9Ts, I can hit the flop much harder (with top pairs and such) to the point of being able to shove 37% of the time instead of only 30%. This alone improves the winnings to 1.8 BB/hand. If you improve to a "real" hand like KQs, say, then you hit the flop 41% of the time, plus you can no longer assume that you're behind on the flop (your opponent may call you with JJ on a K23 board, for example). So if you bump the winning percentage when called up to something like 45%, no you're earning $2.57/hand. That's a huge amount, if you can take the variance.
If you have any interest in this analysis, let me know via the comments, and I'll share my spreadsheet.
tired tonight, but too early for bed (the kids take over the room until 10:30 or so, watching TV).
I hop on a $10 18-man, but I'm not really feeling it. My concentration is low and I'm surfing around as I play.
So I hit the wrong button and CALL instead of fold. Oops. What hath I wrought? I have limped into the pot, under the gun, with 2-4 offsuit. My blogging friend would be raising here with his favorite hand, and to each his own, but this is like the 12th hand of the tourney, and I'm thinking I've made a mistake here. Oh well, no biggie - I'll either fold to a preflop raiser behind me, or see the inevitable A-K-J flop and fold instantly. Net loss of one blind.
We do in fact get to see a flop - 3-5-6.
Woohoo!. I've flopped the nuts. Remind me to salute the poker grump after I triple up here.
I check. Someone leads out, and a guy behind him calls. My notes say neither of them are great players, and I've already lost some chips, so a shove seems in order. I shove it in, and they both (!) call.
I'm facing top set - pocket sixes, and 7-8.
I'm ahead, but only barely. Pokerstove says it's 38% for me, 35% for the set, and 26% for the open-ended straight draw. I've got to dodge bullets like Neo in The Matrix to see my way to the end of this one...
Turn is an ace. I'm now 59.5% to win the hand....
River, another ace. Sigh. Mr. pocket sixes boats up.
Remind me to punch the poker grump after I close my poker software down for the night...
Live Thursday game - basically the exact same table as last week. All solid players - no dead money to be found.
I had been thinking very hard about working a a new play into my game since the end of last week's game - a play that I think would work very well on this table. I had learned the details from an Ed Miller video on StoxPoker.
The play is the light 3-bet. Our table rarely gets to see a flop with limps - there's usually some type of preflop raise. After the raise, the tighter players often fold, the looser players often call, the math guys like me will do either/or depending on the implied odds and so forth. As I mentioned, all of the players are solid/decent in their own way, so implied odds are harder to come by.
But at our table, the 3-bet - the preflop re-raise - that pretty much universally means "I've got a big hand". Let's say JJ+ or AK.
After the light 3 bet, as the video instructed, if you get called, your hope is to hit the flop in some way. Ed Miller's exact phrase stuck with me - he said you just need to graze the flop. Say middle pair with a gutshot straight draw. An open ended straight draw or flush draw is more than enough. If you get that kind of flop, you shove all your chips in - simple as that.
The math works. Firstly, the 3-bet gets so much respect that many people will be folding preflop. All the late position steals with Ace-rag and King-Ten don't want to play in 3-bet pots, potentially for all their chips. The implied odds guys with suited connectors and small pocket pairs no longer have their implied odds - the three-bet has hosed up their stack-to-pot ratios. (read more about SPRs here). So they're playing wrong by calling. So, at least at my table, you'll get lots of preflop folding.
Now, once you see a flop, and you can get all your chips in, you're just screaming "I have pocket aces". Look at it from the villain's point of view - he's watched a known tight player put all his chips in the middle before the river, on a big preflop 3-bet and a flop shove. What else could it be?
So, to start, what percentage of the time do you think you're actually called when all-in on the flop? Anyone with less than top pair/top kicker is sweating at least (remember, I made the proviso that we're doing this against a solid player - not a guy who hits middle pair and chases to the river hoping for two pair). The setminers have missed 7 out of 8 times. The implied odds guys shouldn't even be in the hand.
On the negative end, you might have run into aces/kings yourself. Most of the time, you would find this out preflop when they 4-bet shove over your light 3-bet. Some tricky players would just call with aces preflop and let you stack yourself though (especially if they think you're capable of the play I'm describing here).
For the sake of argument, we'll say that you get a fold by the flop shove 50% of the time, but I think this number is too low. And now, if you get called, you've grazed the flop in such a way to have say 25% equity (6 outs would be pair+gutshot). So now, in the other 50% of the time you're called, you will win 12.5% (1/4 of 50) of those. That's 50% + 12.5% = 62.5% equity. That's a winning play.
If you agree that my 50% flop call number is too low, then the equity shoots even higher. I say the fold percentage is more like 60-65% in my game, and that makes the total equity of this play fall between 70% and 74%. That's not just a winning play, that's like having AK vs. AQ.
Would you play in a hand where I told you that you had AK and your opponent had AQ? Yeah, me too.
Now, if you want to play hands this way, you also have to play your pocket aces and kings the same way. If your opponents start to suspect you're 3-betting light, they'll be more apt to look you up, say with top pair, and you need to show up with the overpair or top set every now and then.
Two seemingly inconsequential hands early in the night reassured me that this play was going to work. In the first, an aggressive player raised preflop, and I looked down on pocket aces. There were still many people to act behind me, so calling the raise for deception was out of the question. I three bet to $12. The opponent said out loud something to the effect of "uh-oh - that's a big hand" and folded. I three-bet, he put me on aces, simple as that.
In the other hand, action got heavy on a draw-heavy board, and one of the tighter players at the table folded to a turn raise. He folded face-up, revealing pocket kings, which were still an overpair! He was out of position and didn't feel like guessing about which draw the looser opponent had, and just decided he didn't have to lose his money on an overpair to some crazy straight.
So we've got players who assume the worst when they see a three bet, and players capable of laying down overpairs on scary boards. Yup, sounds like the mood is right for the light three bet.
My own play for the night was starting to spin away from me a little bit. I had failed to get my implied odds, well-hidden full house paid off on the river. I ran into trips on a paired board twice - the first of which I paid off handsomely because I failed to believe an under the gun raiser had a deuce in his hand (he did). I also paid off a somewhat-ridiculous $12 river bet with two pair on a 4-club board, only because my opponent was the only guy at the table I felt capable of representing the flush without having it (but he had it).
It was getting late, and my usually-even stack was down to about $45. I felt like it was time to try the light three bet. Wiley was the raiser - he had knocked me around all night (he was the one with an under the gun deuce, and the other trips as well). I decided I would three bet any playable hand, and looked down at my cards at 6s7s. Yup, good enough - I made it $12.
Wiley asked "twelve more, or twelve total?". It sounded like he might fold to the former, but call the latter, but my intention was an $8 raise to twelve total, so I told him so. He mused about calling out loud, and while doing so, said something very prescient - "looks like Matt is ready to make a stand here". He was dead right, which didn't help my cause. In the end, he called, somewhat reluctantly.
Now all I had to do was graze the flop. The poker gods did not cooperate - we saw something like QJ5 instead. One spade. I had whiffed badly.
Wiley checked to the raiser. Should I carry the plan through anyway and just shove my chips in on a naked bluff? The idea crossed my mind, but in the end I felt like the two broadway cards gave him way too many reasons to call, even on a hit-nothing-draw, which still was ahead of me. I also remembered that he had somewhat predicted out loud that my range might not be as strong as the normal 3 bet.
I abandoned the idea of the shove, but I did make a regular continuation bet. Maybe this was wrong, too - if I have no chance of winning, then either shoving for maximum fold equity or giving up might have been the best decisions. Wiley, still leery of the possibility of a big hand but going with his read, put me all in. I tossed my cards away like they had acid on them, and everyone at the table went "ooooh", suspecting they had caught me in "a move". And they were right.
With 20 minutes left to go in the game, and me deciding to stay play some short stack to round out the night, I threw the rest of my chips in on a squeeze play with Wiley raising and getting two callers. I had KQs - a great hand to attempt the squeeze, but they key to this play is getting the initial raiser to fold. Wiley did not fold -he called with AK, and my dominated hand sent me to the rail.
I watched the last 20 minutes of play instead of buying back in. I was somewhat (but not overly) steamed that my plays hadn't worked out, and I was trying to work through it. Working the light three bet into my game will increase variance, obviously - the play basically involves putting all my chips into the middle with substandard hands, mainly relying on fold equity to win me pots. If I'm going to steam away when I lose a buy-in, then I'm probably simply not cut out for this LAGGY style. I'm going to have to accept pissing away a buy-in or two along the way, knowing the math will work out enough to pay dividends later.
I'll call last night's buy-in my first quarter's tuition to LAG school.
I'm three handed with 2 aggressive players. I get AQo in the big blind. The button limps - he hasn't done that one time yet. My radar goes up, but does it matter? I've got a pretty big hand anyway - we're down to 10-12 BB each.
I decide to shove even if his limp is fishy. It was fishy - he had QQ, and my 30% ship doesn't come in.
I'm left with 1000 chips, and get JJ on the next hand. I shove into the same guy, now HE calls with AQs, and hits his flush on the turn. Buh-bye for me.
Do you play AQ slowly this deep into a SNG, fearing the worst? In my famous live tourney QQ disaster last month, the general feedback was that I shouldn't be worrying about AA/KK when I have QQ. I know AQ isn't quite as strong as QQ, but the feeling of dread was the same - "uh-oh, what does that limp mean?". I mean, I had the read, but does it matter here?
BTW- it was one of those tourneys where my cards were complete crap for the first 100 hands, yet I managed to make the money. As is often the case, the good cards at the end are what got me knocked out.
This is my first blog post from the new PC, which finally arrived today.
A bit sad tonight after watching my Buckeyes outplay USC all game, and then give up a 4th quarter drive to lose the game 18-15. They played a pretty great game but fell one big play short.
Tomorrow I'll watch my Browns get killed by a Super Bowl contending Minnesota team, which will bring the weekend misery to a close.
my pc isn't ready for poker yet, so I still have some work to do there.
My new computer apparently took a 24 hour siteseeing trip around St. Louis on Thursday. The FexEx tracking shows the packing leaving on Thursday at 8:00am, then leaving again at 5:10 this morning, with no record of anything in between. Huh?
Having its fill of the Cardinals and the Arch, it left St. Louis this morning at 5:10 am. At 8:10 pm - 14 minutes ago, it arrived back in Grove City, Ohio! - about 130 miles away. Estimated delivery reads tomorrow.
Let's hope.
Tough sledding in the Thursday night game tonight - none of the 8 players who showed up were those who I considered more likely to make big mistakes. Any profit tonight would be well-earned, or simply lucky.
Perhaps sensing the need for a fish at the table, I started off poorly. I made a button raise with Ah9h, and Mr. Pietzak behind me three bet from the small blind. Conflicting thoughts swirled into my head about what he held, what he think I held, position, etc, but in the end I called the three bet, really without a plan. I hit the ace on a board with no draws, and Mr. Pietzak shoved the rest of his $26 stack in.
I was torn right down the middle on whether he had the ace or not. He could easily do this with smaller pairs - merely banking on the fact that I have no ace and cannot call. It would be a hero call to snap off jacks here, but it would also pretty donk-ish to call a three bet and go broke on top pair, weak kicker. I folded in disgust with myself. As it turned out, I was dead to AQ, so my fold was correct - but calling the three bet with A9 sooted is more the "hope and pray" style than good poker.
After this hand, I got a bit too preflop limpy and trickled away some more money on digging for big hands with connectors and weak broadway hands. To nobody in particular, I said out loud "I'm playing like a donkey". Tony heard me and cocked his head, allowing me to elaborate further, but I didn't have much more to add. I had summed it up pretty well.
The Hollywood ending would be me resolving to play aggressively and tearing up the table, but that didn't really happen. For the most part I played very straightforwardly, and my cards ended up being good enough to win back my money. I raised while 6 handed with KJo, and hit an open ended straight draw with a Queen and Ten on the flop. I check/called, check/called, then hit the beauty nine on the river. I thought carefully about the perfect callable amount to bet, but missed it as my aggressive opponent folded the river. My guess is he hand an uncallable small pocket pair or ace-high, and I wouldn't win more no matter what I bet.
One nice call - after two limpers, the small blind shoved his small $16 stack in. I hadn't looked at my cards yet, and of course figured my fold would be an easy decision for almost any two cards, but instead I looked at pocket tens. yikes. The first thing that popped into my head was "do I really have to race here for $16?". But I soon recalled a recent conversation I had with my study partner. We were discussing my famous QQ hand from last month's tourney. His advice was "shove preflop!". I was scared of aces or kings because of a 2x preflop raise, and I also didn't want to have to race AK. Concerning the "racing" part - he reminded me that QQ is actually a 56% favorite over AK - which is a bit more than a 50-50 "race". The casinos in Vegas are built on the kind of 6% edges that one has when he holds QQ over AK.
The dynamics of that hand might have been a bit more complex because it was a tourney situation, but my TT hand here was not. This was a cash game - one makes money over the long haul by seizing every known edge. Basically, if he turned over AK or AQ right now, I would be making a significant mistake by not calling. Add to that point that I could put many more hands in his shortstack shoving range, plenty of smaller pairs than my tens, AQ/AJ, maybe even KQs. Finally, I felt like I could take pocket aces and pocket kings out of his range, since most players want to make sure they get action with their big preflop hands.
Take those two dominating hands out of his range, and now a call is mandatory. I call, expecting a race with AK/AQ, but instead I get... pocket fives! Nice. I avoid the suckout and stack a nice pot.
More garbage - I followed limpers from the button with Ac6c. I got my flush draw on a non-broadway board and it checked to me. Free shot at a nut flush? Ok, I'm in. The turn added more fun cards to my draw as my 6 contributed to an open ended straight draw, and once again it checked to me. Here I considered a bet, hope one or more of the three villains calls and get the pot built up. I wasn't sure if I call could a big checkraise, though, with a hidden set or a 68 straight, so again I checked behind.
The river brought the flush, and nobody seemed interested. Check, check, check to me. Sigh. Well, it didn't look like my free flush was going to win any money. I bet a "beg for a call" $3 and got three folds.
Tony did consider calling - he even said "I think I should have bet this earlier" as he folded. For reasons unknown, I showed my ace-rag flush, to which he replied "I wouldn't have gotten rid of you anyway". I said to him "nope, I think I might have even tried your famous overbet with that hand". Tony is capable of overbetting the pot with strong draws or strong hands, and he often gets paid off as opponents guess wrong. I told him that I always wanted to employ his own overbet on him, but cautioned that I was willing to do it with a lock hand, or a strong draw, or nothing at all.
Another potential Hollywood ending - later in the same hour I check out pocket aces in the hole. I was under the gun so I knew my raise would be given some respect no matter what, so I made it $3.50 instead of my usual $3.00 to help build the pot up. Tony reraised me, $15 on top, from position. Tony is not one to 3-bet light - I put his range on TT+, AK. So how could I win the most money here? I think many players would call here, knowing you're heads up, hoping AK hits top pair and can't get away. Tony probably won't go broke on top pair, though. Remembering my warning about trying the overbet "someday", I decided this might be the time. I just shoved, hoping he felt obligated to call with KK, or he remembered what I had said an hour earlier and hoped I was making a play with something like AQ or 99. Apparently, he didn't give a thought to our earlier conversation, though, he said out loud "I guess you have aces", and folded his pocket queens, face up, with barely a second's thought.
I made two plays without the hands to really back them up, so I guess I was playing some real poker. I raised KQo and got a caller from the blind. We both checked an all-small board, but then he lead out on another rag turn. I couldn't put him on a big hand that he wouldn't have reraised with preflop, and I didn't think this was the type of player would would have called a preflop raise with a 46s type hand from a blind, so I raised his bet with king high. He folded, saying "your pair is obviously bigger than mine".
In the other hand, I had AcQc and lead out on a turn with a flush draw that hadn't arrived yet. Mr. Pietzak raised me, correctly sensing that my bet was more of a stab than anything. I felt like he would have merely called this bet with any draw, and the straight out there was very unlikely, so at best his raise was some pair that might not be able to stand the heat of a re-raise. My stack was healthy enough to find out, so I re-raised and got a fold. I'm not one that often re-raises a turn with air, so this bet had to look like it had some teeth behind it.
In summary, a little bit of poker, good enough cards to squeeze out a 30 BB profit.
It beats a sharp stick in the eye.
Here's a kick in the pants - I was expecting my new PC to arrive via FedEx yesterday. I was following along with the online tracking, and the package had left Grove City OH, at 8am (I also live in Ohio). The PC never arrived. I checked the online tracking again this morning - looks like the PC got on the wrong truck.
DRAT!
Got heads up today and then lost a nice part of my stack when my opponent limped with queens, hit top set, then top boat, then bet small enough to let me think my ace-high was good.
Fortunately, because the flop and turn were checked, I was still alive when this hand came up a bit later.
Absolute/UB Cereus No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 300/600 Blinds (2 handed) - Absolute/UB Cereus Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (SB) (t5096)
BB (t8404)
Preflop: Hero is SB with A
, A
Hero calls t300, BB checks
Flop: (t1200) 5, 5, A
(2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks
Turn: (t1200) 7 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks
River: (t1200) 2 (2 players)
BB bets t600, Hero raises to t1200, BB raises to t3000, Hero raises to t4421 (All-In), BB calls t1421
Total pot: t10042
BB mucked 7 5
Hero wins t10042 with a full house, aces full of fives.
Flop and turn were checked on this hand as well, but fortunately the slowplayer caught a hand he couldn't lay down this time. I took the first place money 2 hands later.
My computer arrives tomorrow.
My father bought a motorcycle this month. He has been without one for 15 years now, and has missed it horribly. My father and mother got on better financial footing recently, and he was able to go out and find a used Vulcan that he liked.
My sister and I met at his house this morning and went on a nice 75 mile ride, family style. The rain stayed away and we were able to tool around for a couple hours and enjoy the day.
I was not as lucky avoiding the weather on the way home - the skies opened up and I get soaked. I had to stop at a gas station for about 45 minutes when the rain got extra-hard - then I made the rest of the 40 mile trip in regular rain.
I mostly kept away from the online poker. I played one tourney last night, which I won, and one tonight, which I bubbled because Ace-Friggin-King can't catch a pair when calling all-ins vs. TT or 66. I had a large stack and felt it necessary to call two overshoves vs. the hands above, and lost them both. Both were correct plays with fine odds, neither worked out. All-righty-then.
The tourney that I won was remarkable in the fact that nothing unremarkable happened Bad players got their money in bad against me and lost. I put pressure on medium stacks on the bubble and built my stack up.
When heads up, I felt that I was more experienced than my opponent, and stuck with ultra-small-ball. I folded almost every big blind, even stuff that's playable heads-up like middle kings or unsuited connectors. I mixed up raises and calls from the small blind, keeping him on his toes. This player never checkraised, so I could bet every time he checked and fold every time he bet. I was able to bide my time and keep the stacks close until I hit a king high flush and wacked his top pair, then I laid on the gas pedal a bit more as a bigger stack until I knocked him out.
1-2-3-simple stuff.
My computer arrives in 2 days.
I am still computer-less, and am typing out this post on my 10 year old's PC. It has a single 17" LCD monitor, which seems very cramped when compared to my dual 24" widescreen rig upon which I usually run. My new PC arrives Wednesday from Dell, and will take a night or so to set up, so I probably won't get back to any serious online poker until late next week.
I'm not missing it terribly, to be honest. The combination of poor play and poor luck makes it feel much more like work than it should, especially when grinding out one or two low-stakes sit-n-goes at a time. There should be a little bit of joy in your hobby - the online portion of my game has brought very little recently.
The live poker has been better to me. I already described my nice cash game night last Thursday - and even the last 2 live tourneys I played, while both ending in disheartening losses, gave me challenges both in game and post game (analyzing my play) that stimulated my mind and provided their own reward in learning opportunities.
Some non-poker content - I attended my 25 year high school class reunion last night - a somewhat impromtu affair held in a large bar/restaurant near my high school, on the other side of town (for non-Clevelanders, the city is split into "East Side" and "West Side", and it is somewhat rare for people to cross over and reside on the opposite side from whence they came. I am one of those somewhat rare people).
A good turnout for the reunion - probably 50-70 ex-high schoolers all-told - most from my graduating class of 1984, and a few from neighboring classes as well. Always nice to see some old faces and reconnect. It's also interesting to hear comparatively exotic life stories of my peers who were more adventurous than I was - making their way to the West Coast after graduation, or starting up their own business. Don't misunderstand - no regrets here - I take great pride and seriousness in "merely" being my kids' dad - but I realize that my life's story is not one that will be optioned off for Hollywood moviemaking anytime soon.
I had some fun, but not too much, and woke up with a decent night's sleep and a nice do-nothing-holiday-Sunday weekend in front of me. I briefly considered perhaps an afternoon large online tourney, but decided that I can let it wait a big longer.
So I'm watching Chris "Jesus" Fergeson on the World Series of poker this week. He's in the big blind with a middle king, like K-8 or something, and the board gives him trip kings. He's first to act, and I'm thinking "checkraise".
That's why he's a pro and I'm a shlub watching him on TV. Chris leads right out with his trips. His opponent, with a pocket pair I believe, calls the bet. On the turn, Chris leads out again, and again he gets a call. On the river, one more large value bet, into what is now a rather large pot. I believe (and the details of the end of the hand are admittedly fuzzy) that the villain paid off all three streets of pure value.
Nothing very tricky going on here. Flop a big hand and bet it. Pure, sweet value. Decent players, though, are often expected to NOT being doing the expected - so leading out onto a KKx flop is often interpreted as weakness, not strength. You've got the x, or a pocket pair, and want to see where you're at. Why bet the trip kings?
No revelation to me, certainly, but watching this play gave me my adjustment to the cash game for this week. I think my recent aggressive play has earned me some respect at our cash game table, capable of moves and bluffs. Sounds like a good time to change gears and play straightforwardly!
This week we changed up the cash game and doubled the stakes - to $1/$2 blinds. I also tried to get the game started early by bribing people with free pizza. This move was only somewhat successful - we had enough to get playing by about 8:45, where I was hoping for a 7:30-7:45 start. However, we got to play deep into the night as many people were off starting their long holiday weekend, so we got in a solid 6 hours of poker.
I got a chance to try my new "all value, all the time" theory out in the first hour. I got a free look at a flop with Ace-Five from the big blind, and the board came 556, two hearts. My small blind friend lead right out into me. The tricky player might flat call, represent a draw (he might get himself in a sticky situation if the draws come in, though). I went for value- a big raise. My opponent folded, saying "eh, your flush draw is higher than mine, I'll fold". I replied "what, I couldn't have a five there?". His response was very interesting - "you had no five".
Truly, this newfound plan of mine deals with how to act when you hit a hand. Most of the time in Texas Hold-em, though - you don't flop anything, or not much of something, and so you've got to try and fight for some pots with something besides your cards. I was able to win enough small pots to stay afloat - I bobbed to about $80 above even, and then bobbed back down to just over even on the night. I went through a long string of unplayable hands like K2o and J4 - I even played one or two of these in the right situations, but nothing ever came from it.
Later in the evening, I started to get frustrated. No cards, a few small moves not working, just not getting into the correct situations. I needed some kind of kickstart, which I got with some medium cards and some ballsy play.
In the first, I followed some limpers in late position with 9To. Not much of hand, but I had played nothing for about three orbits. I hit the ten on a TKK board. I wish I had the king to try out my new value Chris Fergeson play, but it was not to be. Instead, I lead out with my pair, to see what was going on. The button behind me raised. My head said "fold" at first - he's obviously representing a king, and even if he has a ten, his kicker is most likely better than mine. (AT/QT/JT). But then I put a few more hands into his range - namely small pocket pairs, and even QJ trying for the straight draw. My stack was still big enough to make a play here - I re-raised his raise. When he didn't fall out of his chair pushing the rest of his chips into the middle, I knew I had him. He folded and I won a decent pot.
I later called a raise, this time on the button myself, and again with 9To, trying to make something happen. This time the flop came 944, and my opponent lead into me. This was a bit of a stickier situation - in a raised pot, a reraise would get me close to playing for all my chips, and of course I could be dead to lots of overpairs out there. But my opponent is one of the more aggressive players at the table, and this lead out doesn't have to mean anything more than a continuation bet. Too strong to fold and too weak to play for all my chips, I called the bet.
The turn brought an ace - a great card for him to keep the lead with, but he checked. I considered taking the lead away from him, but I still saw myself in a way-ahead/way-behind situation. He could have jacks or tens and is now wary of the ace, or he had Ax to begin with and now took the lead, waiting to checkraise me. I chose the path of playing for pot control with a small pot and checking behind.
The turn brought more bad news - a king. Lots more hands took the lead on me, and again my opponent checked. With a small hand, I chose to play a small pot, and announced "I have a 9" as I turned my cards over. He mucked in disgust - I'm not sure what he had (maybe pocket 5s/6s/7s?).
These two hands got my head back into the game, and my stack above the starting mark, when I finally hit a flop hard. We were down to 6 handed now, and I followed two limpers in late position with 6d8d. Some of the aggressive players were gone from the table now, and we were getting more cheap flops. I was rewarded with bottom two pair - a 68J flop. To boot, I got action - the big blind, KC lead out into me.
KC is a preflop slowplayer. He already buried someone tonight by limping in with kings and flopping a set (the opponent, Mr. Pietzak, had the misfortune of hitting his own smaller set on the turn). KC could have aces right now, which would be pretty good for my two pair. He could also have a set of jacks, which would be pretty bad, or a higher two pair in this limped pot. I knew he had something - though - KC isn't really the type to go firing into a multiway pot with complete garbage. I don't like playing bottom two pair slowly - lots of ways to get counterfeited, lots of straight draws available, as your cards are usually connected (or pseudo-connected). All this, plus my new "all value, all the time" style, made my course of action clear. I raised his leadout of $6 to $21.
KC didn't look like he was ready to lay it down. "I've got a big pair", he exclaimed to the table, which I knew was entirely possible based on his style. My reply was something stupid, but I'm not sure he caught it. I told him and the rest of the table "I know". I had to watch out for that jack pairing, or any card higher, as my strong hand would wither up pretty fast.
The turn brought a home run - the 8 of hearts. Now a flush was on the board, and I was floating in a big boat. I took him at his word when he said he had a big pair, so I discarded the made flush, though I hoped maybe he had the Ace of hearts and now had the nut flush draw to keep him in the hand. After he checked to me, I had a brief consideration of checking my strong hand for deception, but chased that idea out of my mind right away. Stay with the Fergeson rule - value/value/value. I needed to try and play for my entire stack with a full house, and there was no way I could get my whole stack in if I checked the turn. I bet $35 - just under half of my $80 stack - if he folded, then more power to him. To my delight, he called. He was on the hook now - I was pretty sure he wouldn't call this bet and then fold to the close to the same size bet on the river.
I was right. I still had to worry about a higher boat coming in with any Q/K/A, but it didn't come. I had the nuts except for JJ. KC checked to me and I shrugged and put the rest in, $46, like I just realized that I didn't have that much left. KC called as I expected, then mucked at my announcement "I have a full house". He noted later than he had pocket queens, and had put me on a hand like AJ the whole way.
One final hand with AK ended my winnings for the night. Tony raised it up, Mr. Pietzak called, as did I, from the big blind, with big slick. I hit my Ace on the flop, along with a ten and a four. For the first time tonight, I strayed away from the value/value/value game and went for the checkraise, since Tony fires on most flops. He did not disappoint me and made a sizeable bet, but then Mr. Pietzak surprised me and smooth called himself. Mr. Pietzak loves to play ace-rag, and plays them very well. There was no real straight out there but there was two spades, so I needed to try and end things here. I brought out the bazooka and checkraised to something like $32. Tony folded, but Mr. Pietzak considered his options and then smooth called again! I didn't like my top pair/top kicker as much now.
The turn brought a jack. I had to act first, out of position with a decent but certainly vulnerable hand. And now there were gutshot straight draws to protect against (I had one myself if a queen came in). A check here keeps the pot under control but opens oneself up to all kinds of bluffs. I decided to fire big one more time. Mr. Pietzak thought a long time and then folded, saying "I hated that jack", then turned his cards face up - Ace-Four! He had folded two pair, the better hand. We rabbit hunted the river, which actually had brought my straight with a queen, so his fold ended up being very good for him. I was impressed, though - even though the fold was not technically correct, he sensed enough danger and avoided a nasty situation. Most players would play an A4 two pair for their stack, even on a board that end up A4TJQ. What exactly are they beating now? A2/A3, and A6-A9. That's it.
In the last orbit, I made one unusual play (for me) that ended up not working out in the short run, but may help in future visits. I played QJ in a limped pot and got a nice draw with 9T and two diamonds. Mr. Pietzak lead out the betting and I flat called, seeing if my straight might come in. We both checked the turn, giving me a free shot at my straight. It did not come, but a diamond on the river brought in a flush draw. Mr. Pietzak bet the river - fairly small again, and it was my feeling that he didn't have the flush. I decided that my betting line looked very much like a flush, though, so I raised the river bet to $18. Mr Pietzak thought a bit, then exclaimed "well, I got my wish for a small pot, so I'll call you", and turned over two pair - 9T. Drat! I think he folds a single pair there, but he played his hand perfectly, keeping the pot small enough to avoid being blown off the hand on a bluff. As I mentioned, I think raising the river on a bluff, even though I got called, might bring some dividends later.
That last loss knocked me down a bit, but I ended up with a $210 profit on the night. I think I lost only 2 or 3 showdowns, and won plenty of pots without showing down. I didn't hit many big hands, but got maximum value from the one or two I did hit. A strong, strong night for me.
A third place finish tonight, then a bombout. That's a losing session, and right where I've been the past four months.
Isidious game. I can't tell anymore if this is a downswing, or if I'm simply not that good. And the experts will tell you that there's no way to tell - not with a sample size of "only" 700 tourneys. The luck and the skill are so intertwined that you really can't figure it out.
Here are three examples from tonight. Maybe writing them out will help me decide if my luck is simply bad or if I'm making mistakes.
I steal-raise from the button with A5o. I would have folded to a shove from either blind. The small blind calls the raise. Nice flop for me - A85 rainbow - two pair on a draw-less board. The small blind shoves all in. I make the call. He has AJ, I'm well ahead, but an 8 comes on the turn and counterfeits me.
Bad luck, right? 6 outs to beat me - 24%. I'm a 3-1 favorite to win the hand when I call. So the call is good, I just got unlucky. Fine.
An orbit later, I've got 890 left. It folds to me in the small blind. I've got 7h8h and 9BB. I usually wait a bit longer before getting all shovey-shovey, but I'm playing a turbo on UB, and the next blind level is 75/150, which will cripple me. I take my shot and shove, and get insta-called by 99, to which I'm completely hosed. Out in sixth place.
Bad play? I wasn't totally desperate yet, but I'm in a turbo and will be very soon. I haven't been shoving my chips around - he's not going to call me light. And he didn't call me light- he called me with 99. More bad luck that he woke up with a hand, or should I have folded and waited for at least one high card to shove?
Hand 3, from the prior tourney. We're down to 3 handed. I have witnessed the guy to my right minraising several times, mixed in with regular raising. One time, he minraised and got shoved over by a tiny stack, and had odds to call with any two cards. He had 85o! Ok, so now my read is minraise=steal.
Back to three handed - same guy minraises over me. I've got two ducks on the pond - pocket deuces. I decide to test him out a bit - I reraise 3x over his raise. Then the big blind shoves. Oops. I've got like 4-1 odds to call, so I do. He has pocket sevens and I don't improve. This makes me the small stack and I go out after a brief fight.
More bad luck, right? I had a read and went with it, then the big blind wakes up with a better hand than I have and nails me. Or, should I just fold the crappy pocket twos and wait for something better? It's not like I was willing to play the deuces to the end - my reraise was more of a steal-reraise than anything, but then I got stuck being forced to call the all-in by the guy with the sevens.
I'll admit that I didn't consider the possibility of him raising all-in behind me. Good players would figure that out before deciding whether to try the reraise steal.. But even if I had considered it, I think would have come to the determination that I would be getting good odds with a hand that will usually be racing if the big blind decides to shove - and my call would be a good one. I think the math says that the steal attempt is ok.
But I can't tell for sure.
My ego is not in the way here. I'm willing to admit that I suck, if in fact I do. I'm willing to continue to learn and try to improve. I want to get better.
The above is an anagram for my full name. Try your own here.
The blog of poker player on a downswing must be the most boring thing in the world. Sorry.
There are no real hand details to give for tonight, really - I played 3 tourneys and I think I played 6 hands - three of which knocked me out. One was pocket kings who found pocket aces in the first level. One was a shortstack shove from the button that was called by BOTH BLINDS. (my first hand played of that tourney, no shit). I had shit and they didn't, I was gone. The last was probably a bad call - called a shove with 66 (I was short myself, 6-7 BB) - a race against AQ, which I lost.
No cards, no flops, steals called (or reraised), nothing you can do but watch the chips melt away. Out in 8th, 6th, and 8th. No shot.
Need another day off, it looks like. Thursday is our cash game, double stakes this week ($1/$2 blinds), so I hope to have a big turnout and a good time. Maybe I'll catch a hand or two.
Seems like wishful thinking right now.
